2023 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Developing an agricultural production and land-use change model and examining the land-use scenarios under mitigation policies
Publicly Offered Research
| Project Area | Digital biosphere: integrated biospheric science for mitigating global environment change |
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| Project/Area Number |
22H05735
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| Research Institution | Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences |
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Principal Investigator |
Wu Wenchao 国立研究開発法人国際農林水産業研究センター, 社会科学領域, 任期付研究員 (50868693)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-06-16 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | land use / mitigation / agriculture / climate change |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
In this fiscal year, I have first processed the two types of datasets collected in the previous year. Since the datasets are in various spatial resolutions, I converted all the datasets into 5-arc minutes.
Then, the statistical land use and land cover change model was estimated with multinominal logit regression methods. In the modeling framework, the world was divided into 17 AIM regions. Therefore, one model was fitted for each region. The data for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was used for econometric estimation.
After that, the estimated coefficient was used to project the land use and land cover in the future in a recursive manner, together with the independent variables for the future.
Last, the projected land use and land cover for future years were adjusted using the cross-entropy method, with the objective function of minimizing the distance between the posterior probabilities and the priors.
The results could provide future land use information for the long-term. It could also provide information for the assessment of land-based climate mitigation potential.
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| Research Progress Status |
令和5年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
令和5年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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