予測・判断・意思決定の論理と計算

• Project Area: Elucidation of neural computation for prediction and decision making: toward better human understanding and applications
• Project/Area Number: 23120002
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Research in a proposed research area)
• Research Institution: Keio University
• Principal Investigator: 岡田 光弘 Keio University, 文学部, 教授 (30224025)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 山田 友幸 北海道大学, 文学研究科, 教授 (40166723) ; 下嶋 篤 同志社大学, 文化情報学部, 教授 (40303341) ; 金子 守 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (40114061) ; 敷島 千鶴 帝京大学, 文学部, 准教授 (00572116)
• Project Fiscal Year: 2011-07-25 – 2016-03-31(Estimated)
• Project Status: Adopted(Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥81,250,000 (Direct Cost : ¥62,500,000、Indirect Cost : ¥18,750,000); Fiscal Year 2015 : ¥14,820,000 (Direct Cost : ¥11,400,000、Indirect Cost : ¥3,420,000); Fiscal Year 2014 : ¥14,820,000 (Direct Cost : ¥11,400,000、Indirect Cost : ¥3,420,000); Fiscal Year 2013 : ¥16,640,000 (Direct Cost : ¥12,800,000、Indirect Cost : ¥3,840,000); Fiscal Year 2012 : ¥16,380,000 (Direct Cost : ¥12,600,000、Indirect Cost : ¥3,780,000); Fiscal Year 2011 : ¥18,590,000 (Direct Cost : ¥14,300,000、Indirect Cost : ¥4,290,000)
• Keywords: 意思決定 / 論理 / 行動遺伝学（双生児法） / 証明論 / 図形推論 / ゲーム理論 / アイトラッカー / 多属性意思決定 / 哲学 / 論理学 / 論理哲学 / 行動遺伝学 / 国際研究者交流 / フランス、オランダ、イタリア / フランス・カナダ / 論理推論 / 図形論理 / 認識論理 / 推論の化学 / 義務論理

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Alternative decision makingを組み合わせて、意思決定と論理推論能力や認知能力との関係に関する被験者実験を行った。我々の実験データの解析を進めた。特に、Allais課題における被験者の意思決定の一貫性と論理推論能力との関係や、多属性表の異なる表現での提示間における被験者の意思決定の一貫性と論理推論能力との関係について調査した。データ解析には、行動遺伝学的手法、アイトラッカー計測手法、論理推論モデル理論などを用いている。
予測のための論理推論を捉えることを目指して、論理推論の空間表象的モデル理論の研究を進めた。特に、言語的推論と図形的推論の区別を論理学的、認知科学的、意味論的観点から考察した。予測のための論理推論に対するモデルベース理論と図形推論理論との関係を、外的論理表象理論と内的論理表象理論の関係性という観点から検討した。また、このことのために必要となる図形推論の論理学的、認知情報科学的基礎研究も進めた。また、図表現の意味分析のための理論的な枠組みの構築に取り組んだ。具体的にはチャンネル理論に基づく「表現系」のモデルを概念的に明瞭化し、具体的な図表現系に適用する方法を示した
現実の意思決定は、他者や環境とのインタラクションの中で行われ、そのことによって環境世界はさらにダイナミックに変化する。このようなダイナミックな変化のなかで意思決定のモデルを、ゲーム理論、認識論理、義務論理、チャネル理論などの融合により形成する研究を前年度に引き続いて進展させた。
言語行為論や言語行動主義的観点から、判断行為の論理哲学的研究を進めた。特にサールの言語行為論、中期ウィトゲンシュタインの言語行動主義、初期フッサールの論理判断論の研究成果を他の上記の諸研究に結び付けた。
他人の効用関数をどのようにして知ることが できるのかを、「社会的役割」という概念から考察した。

Current Status of Research Progress

Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

上記「実績の概要」で述べた通り、本研究課題のすべてのサブプロジェクトに対して、充分に成果を上げることができた。
意思決定と論理との関わりについては本研究課題の開始初期に予想していなかったことが明らかになりつつあり、その点でも２０１４年度成果は達成度が高いといえる。また、最終年度に向けて、これまでのサブプロジェクトの成果を融合していくことが目標となるが、このための準備も充分に進んだといえる。多くの部分ですでに融合的成果が顕在化している。
以上の理由から、おおむね順調（またはそれ以上）と自己評価している。

Research Output

• [Journal Article] Understanding the Other through Social Roles (2015)
  • Author(s): M. Kaneko, and J. J. Kline
  • Journal Title: International Game Theory Review Volume : 17(1) Pages : 近刊
  • DOI: :10.1142/S0219198915400058
• [Journal Article] Elimination of Dominated Strategies and Inessential Players (2015)
  • Author(s): M. Kaneko, and S. Liu
  • Journal Title: Operations Research and Decisions Volume : 25 Pages : 35-56
  • DOI: 10.ord5277/150153
• [Journal Article] サールの社会制度理論とオースティンの言語行為論 (2015)
  • Author(s): 山田友幸
  • Journal Title: 哲学年報 Volume : 60 Pages : 21-37
• [Journal Article] Towards explaining the cognitive efficacy of Euler diagrams in syllogistic reasoning: A relational perspective. (2014)
  • Author(s): Koji Mineshima, Yuri Sato, Ryo Takemura, Mitsuhiro Okada.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Visual Languages and Computing, accepted Volume : 25 Pages : 156-169
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jvlc.2013.08.007
• [Journal Article] Wittgenstein on Contradiction and Consistency: An Overview (to appear) (2014)
  • Author(s): M.Marion & M. Okada
  • Journal Title: O Que No Faz Pensar Volume : - Pages : -
• [Journal Article] Wittgenstein on Equinumerosity and Surveyability (2014)
  • Author(s): M. Marion & M. Okada
  • Journal Title: Grazer Philosophische Studien Volume : 89 Pages : 59-76
• [Journal Article] The Barwise-Seligman Model of Representation Systems: A Philosophical Explication (2014)
  • Author(s): A.Shimojima, and Dave Barker-Plummer
  • Journal Title: Diagrammatic Representation and Inference: Eighth International Conference, Diagrams 2014, Proceedings Volume : - Pages : -
• [Journal Article] The epistemic closure principle and the assessment sensitivity of knowledge ascriptions (2014)
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Journal Title: Interdisciplinary Works in Logic, Epistemology, Psychology and Linguistics: Diealogue, Rationality, and Formalism Volume : 3 Pages : 181-199
• [Journal Article] Wittgenstein on equinumerosity and surveyability (2014)
  • Author(s): Mathieu Marion and Mitsuhiro Okada
  • Journal Title: Grazer Philosophische Studien Volume : 89 Pages : 57-76
• [Journal Article] Towards explaining the cognitive efficacy of Euler diagrams in syllogistic reasoning: A relational perspective (2014)
  • Author(s): Koji Mineshima, Yuri Sato, Ryo Takemura, and Mitsuhiro Okada
  • Journal Title: Journal of Visual Languages and Computing Volume : 25(3) Pages : 156-169
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jvlc.2013.08.007
• [Journal Article] The Barwise-Seligman Model of Representation Systems: A Philosophical Explication (2014)
  • Author(s): Atsushi Shimojima, and Dave Barker-Plummer
  • Journal Title: Diagrammatic Representation and Inference - 8th International Conference, Diagrams 2014 Volume : 8 Pages : 231-245
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-44043-8_25
• [Journal Article] Logical Investigation of Reasoning with Tables (2014)
  • Author(s): R. Takemura, A. Shimojima, and Y. Katagiri
  • Journal Title: Diagrammatic Representation and Inference - 8th International Conference, Diagrams 2014 Volume : 8 Pages : 261-276
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-44043-8_27
• [Journal Article] Logic and Economics---Interactions between Subjective Thinking and Objective Worlds (2013)
  • Author(s): Kaneko, M.
  • Journal Title: Economic Theory Volume : 53 Pages : 1-8
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00199-012-0737-8
• [Journal Article] Partial Memories, Inductively Derived Views, and their Interactions with Behavior (2013)
  • Author(s): Kaneko, M., and J. J. Kline
  • Journal Title: Economic Theory Volume : 53 Pages : 27-59
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00199-010-0519-0
• [Journal Article] Husserl and Hilbert on Completeness and Husserl’s Term Rewrite-based Theory of Multiplicity (2013)
  • Author(s): Mitsuhiro Okada
  • Journal Title: 24th International Conference on Rewriting Techniques and Applications (RTA’13) Volume : 21 Pages : 4-19
  • DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.RTA.2013.4
• [Journal Article] Two cohort and three independent anonymous twin projects at the Keio Twin Research Center (KoTReC) (2013)
  • Author(s): Ando J, Shikishima C, Sugimoto Y, Okada M et al. (26 co-authors)
  • Journal Title: Twin Research and Human Genetics Volume : 16 Pages : 202-2016
  • DOI: 10.1017/thg.2012.131.
• [Journal Article] An Eye-Tracking Study of Exploitations of Spatial Constraints in Diagrammatic Reasoning (2013)
  • Author(s): A.Shimojima and Y. Katagiri
  • Journal Title: Cognitive Science Volume : 37 Pages : 211-254
  • DOI: 10.1111/cogs.12026.
• [Journal Article] 行為における合理性と因果 (2013)
  • Author(s): 山田友幸
  • Journal Title: 科学哲学 Volume : 46 Pages : 1-16
• [Journal Article] A relational perspective (2012)
  • Author(s): Shigeru Watanabe
  • Journal Title: CARLS Series of Advanced Study of Logic and Sensibility Volume : Vol. 5 Pages : 283―300
• [Journal Article] Wittgenstein et le lien entre la signification d'un enonce mathematique et sa preuve (2012)
  • Author(s): Mathieu Marion and Mitsuhiro Okada
  • Journal Title: Philosophiques Volume : 39 Pages : 101-124
• [Journal Article] A generalized syllogistic inference system based on inclusion and exclusion relations (2012)
  • Author(s): Koji Mineshima, Mitsuhiro Okada and Ryo Takemura
  • Journal Title: Studia Logica Volume : 100 Pages : 753-785
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11225-012-9428-5
• [Journal Article] A Diagrammatic Inference System with Euler Circles", accepted, to appearJournal of Logic (2012)
  • Author(s): Koji Mineshima, Mitsuhiro Okada and Ryo Takemura
  • Journal Title: Language and Information Volume : 21 Pages : 365-391
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10849-012-9160-6
• [Journal Article] Psychological Evidence of Mental Segmentation in Table Reading (2012)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Sugio, Atsushi Shimojima and Yasuhiro Katagiri
  • Journal Title: Diagrammatic Representation and Inference: Seventh International Conference, Diagrams 2012, Proceedings Volume : 7352 Pages : 124-131
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31223-6_16
• [Journal Article] A Logical Investigation on Global Reading of Diagrams (2012)
  • Author(s): Ryo Takemura, Atsushi Shimojima, and Yasuhiro Katagiri
  • Journal Title: Diagrammatic Representation and Inference: Seventh International Conference, Diagrams 2012, Proceedings Volume : 7352 Pages : 330-333
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31223-6_42
• [Journal Article] Two Dialogues on Epistemic Logics and Inductive Game Theory (2012)
  • Author(s): M. Kaneko and J. J. Kline
  • Journal Title: Advances in Mathematics Research Volume : 12 Pages : 199-238
• [Journal Article] Genome-wide DNA methylation and gene expression analyses of monozygotic twins discordant for intelligence levels. (2012)
  • Author(s): Yu, C. C, Furukawa, M., Kobayashi, K., Shikishima, C., Cha, P. C., Sese. J., Sugawara. H., Iwamoto, K., Kato, T., Ando, J., & Toda, T.
  • Journal Title: PLoS ONE Volume : 7 Pages : -
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31223-6_42
• [Journal Article] Cloningerのパーソナリティ次元とIQ―遺伝要因と環境要因の重なりから (2012)
  • Author(s): 敷島千鶴, 木島伸彦, 安藤寿康
  • Journal Title: パーソナリティ研究 Volume : 21 Pages : 197-200
  • DOI: 10.2132/personality.21.197
• [Journal Article] 「図形を用いた演繹的推論の認知プロセス」 (2011)
  • Author(s): 佐藤有理、峯島宏次、竹村亮、岡田光弘
  • Journal Title: 日本認知科学会第28 回大会発表論文集 Volume : － Pages : 269-274
• [Presentation] Human Life and Turing Machine (2015)
  • Author(s): 岡田光弘
  • Organizer: Symptoms of being alive and shared life
  • Place of Presentation: 慶應義塾大学 (東京都・港区)
  • Year and Date: 2015-02-16 – 2015-02-16
• [Presentation] 初期フッサールの多様体概念 (2014)
  • Author(s): 岡田光弘
  • Organizer: 日本現象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東洋大学 (東京都・文京区)
  • Year and Date: 2014-10-30 – 2014-10-30
• [Presentation] 「図形を用いた演繹的推論の認知プロセス」 (2011)
  • Author(s): 佐藤有理、峯島宏次、竹村亮、岡田光弘
  • Organizer: 2011年度日本認知科学会第28回大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学
  • Year and Date: 20110923-20110925
• [Presentation] On the Very Idea of Imperative Inference
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Organizer: Symposium：Imperatives in Theory and Practice
  • Place of Presentation: University of Warsaw (Poland)
• [Presentation] ギャップと欲求独立の行為理由
  • Author(s): 山田友幸
  • Organizer: 日本科学哲学会第45回 (2012年)大会
  • Place of Presentation: 宮崎大学教育文化学部 (宮崎県)
• [Presentation] Epistemic Logic and Inductive Game Theory: Objectivity vs. Subjectivity
  • Author(s): M. Kaneko
  • Organizer: Australasian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
  • Place of Presentation: Sydney (Australia)
• [Presentation] Genetics of decision making: A Japanese twin study using the Allais problem.
  • Author(s): Shikishima, C., Hiraishi, K., Yamagata, S., Ando, J. & Okada, M.
  • Organizer: 42nd Annual Meeting of the Behavior Genetics Association
  • Place of Presentation: Edinburgh (United Kingdom)
• [Presentation] How deep are decision-theoretical paradoxes biologically wired?
  • Author(s): Bourgeois-Gironde, S., Okada, M., Shikishima, C. & Ando, J.
  • Organizer: Second Symposium on Biology of Decision Making
  • Place of Presentation: Paris (France)
• [Presentation] Equational arithmetic in Husserl and Wittgenstein
  • Author(s): Mitsuhiro Okada
  • Organizer: International Workshop on Cognition of interactions
  • Place of Presentation: Universite Lyon 3 (France)
• [Presentation] 意思決定の遺伝要因 ワークショップ「認知能力とパーソナリティは独立か―両概念の重なりに関する個人差研究の展開」
  • Author(s): 敷島千鶴
  • Organizer: 日本社会心理学会第54回大会
  • Place of Presentation: 沖縄国際大学 (沖縄県)
• [Presentation] Sources of variance in attitudes toward social inequality
  • Author(s): Christian Kandler, Edward Bell, Chizuru Shikishima, Shinji Yamagata, & Rainer Riemann
  • Organizer: The International Society for the Study of Individual Differences 2013 Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Barcelona (Spain)
• [Presentation] Development and education of formal and informal logical thinking ability: A Japanese twin study
  • Author(s): Shinji Yamagata, Chizuru Shikishima, & Kai Hiraishi
  • Organizer: The 43rd Annual Meeting of the Behavior Genetics Association
  • Place of Presentation: Marseille (France)
• [Presentation] Long-term genetic effects of working memory on cognition and personality in adolescence and adulthood: A 14-year longitudinal study of twins
  • Author(s): Juko Ando, Chizuru Shikishima, Nobuhiko Kijima, Kai Hiraishi, Yusuke Takahashi, Shinji Yamagata
  • Organizer: The 43rd Annual Meeting of the Behavior Genetics Association
  • Place of Presentation: Marseille (France)
• [Presentation] Genetic overlapping among intelligence, educational attainment, occupational status, marriage, and having children: Japanese female twins
  • Author(s): Chizuru Shikishima, Shinji Yamagata, Kai Hiraishi, Nobuhiko Kijima, & Juko Ando
  • Organizer: The 43rd Annual Meeting of the Behavior Genetics Association
  • Place of Presentation: Marseille (France)
• [Presentation] The genetic sources of core political attitudes and the role of personality traits: A cross-cultural twin study,
  • Author(s): Christian Kandler, Edward Bell, Chizuru Shikishima, Shinji Yamagata, & Rainer Riemann
  • Organizer: The 43rd Annual Meeting of the Behavior Genetics Association
  • Place of Presentation: Marseille (France)
• [Presentation] Acts of asking questions in dynamified deontic logic
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Organizer: International Symposium: Philosophy and Contemporary International Law
  • Place of Presentation: St Petersburg State University, St Petersburg (Russia)
• [Presentation] Preconditions, common sense reasoning, and context shift
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Organizer: SOCREAL 2013 (3rd International Workshop on Philosophy and Ethics of Social Reality)
  • Place of Presentation: Hokkaido University, Sapporo (北海道)
• [Presentation] Product update and the underdetermination of Illocutionary Forces
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Organizer: Kanazawa Workshop for Epistemic Logic and its Dynamic Extensions
  • Place of Presentation: Shiinoki Cultural Complex, Kanazawa (石川県)
• [Book] Interdisciplinary Works in Logic, Epistemology, Psychology and Linguistics: Dialogue, Rationality, and Formalism (2014)
  • Author(s): Maxime Amblard, Guillaume Aucher, Martine Batt, Jean Caelen, Marcelo Dascal, Gerhard Heinzmann, Franck Lihoreau, Michel Musiol, Eric Pacuit, Sylvain Pogodalla, Manuel Rebuschi, Oliver Schlaudt, Christian Thiel, Frederick Tremblay, Alain Trognon, Frederic Verhaegen, Denis Vernant, Anne Xuereb, Tomoyuki Yamada
  • Total Pages: 372(181-199)
  • Publisher: Springer International Publishing
• [Book] Lectures de Wittgenstein (2012)
  • Author(s): Mathieu Marion and Mitsuhiro Okada, Chapter coauthors
  • Total Pages: 432
  • Publisher: ellipses