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Statistical Methods for the Seasonal Adjustment

Research Project

Project/Area Number 04045056
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
SectionUniversity-to-University Cooperative Research
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

ISHIGURO Makio  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics professor, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (10000217)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) OTTO Marc c.  Bureau of the Census Research Mathematical Statistician, Statistical Researc, Research M
CHEN Bor chung h.  Bureau of the Census Research Mathematical Statistician, Statistical Researc, Research M
BELL William r.  Bureau of the Census Principal Researcher, Statistical Researc, Principal
MONSELL Brian.c.  Bureau of the Census Research Mathematical Statistician, Statistical Researc, Research M
FINDLEY David f.  Bureau of the Census Principal Researcher, Statistical Researc, Principal
KAWASAKI Yoshinori  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics assitant professor, 予測制御研究系, 助手 (70249910)
KITAGAWA Genshiro  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics professor, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (20000218)
OZAKI Tohru  The Institute of Statistical Mathematics professor, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (00000208)
BOR Chung H.  Burean of the Census Statistical Researc, Research M
R.BELL Willi  Burean of the Census Statistical Researc, Research M
浪花 貞夫  熊本商科大学, 経済学部, 教授 (20228076)
赤池 弘次  統計数理研究所, 所長 (70000180)
LARRY G Bobb  Bureau of the Census Statistical Researc, Research M
BRIAN C Mons  Bureau of the Census Statistical Reserch, Research M
DAVID F Find  Bureau of the Census Statistical Reserch, Principal
田辺 國士  統計数理研究所, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (50000203)
Project Period (FY) 1992 – 1994
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1994)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,500,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
KeywordsEIC / Multivariate time series analysis / Dynamic model / X-11 / Monte Carlo filter / Genetic Algoritm / Co-integration / AIC / 季節調整 / 経済システム / モンテカルロ法 / 状態定門モデル / 情報量規準 / 平滑化法 / 統計的モデル / BAYSEA / ベイズモデル / トレンド解析
Research Abstract

Topics covered in this study are as follows :
1. Use of Information Criterion EIC : Use of Extended Information Criterion EIC for the seasonal adjustment is discussed. It is demonstrated that the proposed resampling scheme shows a a natural tendency for chosing better trend for the out-of-sample forcasting.
2. Multivariate Economic Series Analysis : This study intended to analyze the role of sesonal adjustment procedure as a preprocessing technique for the multivariate timeseries analysis. It is reveald that there is danger of losing information about the mutual relationship among related series, when each series is adjusted for the seasonality and detrended separately.
3. X-11 type model : We tried to reconstruct the X-11 type trend estimate by the modern model-based seasonal adjustment method. We introduced a bias correction method which is to be used with conventional additive type model-based trend estimate. We also introduced a new model which has the X-11 type trend for multiplicati … More ve series. With the new model we can estimate the X-11 type trend directly from the data.
4. Monte Carlo filtering : A Monte Carlo filtering and smoothing methods have been developed for state estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. Based on this methods, various models for seasonal adjustment are considered, e. g. , (1) detection of jumps of trend or seasonal components (2) treatment of outliers (3) estimation of multiplicative model (4) Baysian estimation of hyper-parametrs.
5. Genetic Algoritm : We investigate the relationships between the Genetic Algoritm and Monte Calro Filter. The major objective of this paper is to cast the Genetic Algorithm into the Baysian framework by its interpretation from a viewpoint of the Monte Carlo filter.
6. Improve of DECOMP : A procedure for extracting 'stable' stationary autoregressive component is proposed. in which we consider a numerical optimization with a restriction in frequency domain. Further research remained undone, however. especially in modeling jump and kink in trend.
7. Co-integration model : State-space representation for co-integration model is proposed which enables us to estimate the unknown parameters in one-step. while traditional Engle-Granger's method needs two steps.
8. X-12-REGARIMA : To improve its forcasting ability. AIC based regression model selection procedure is incorporated in the traditional moving-avarage based X-11 seasonal adjustment program. Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • 1993 Annual Research Report
  • 1992 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (71 results)

All Other

All Publications (71 results)

  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "AICはなぜ役に立つのか?" 応用数理. Vol.4. 19-32 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "AICのゆらぎについて" 統計数理. Vol.42. 225-237 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "統計的モデル評価と因果解析" 統計数理. Vol.41. 223-232 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "統計的予測支援モデルの開発" 平成5年度長期予測高度化技術開発実験報告書. 31-51 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "情報と予測" EATRELA. No.10. 2-8 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫,坂元慶行,北側源四郎: "Bootstrapping log likelihood and EIC,an extension of AIC" Research Memorandum. No.532. 1-25 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.kitagawa: "The two-filter formula for smoothing and an inplementation of the Gaussiau-sum smoother" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.46. 605-623 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 樋口知之: "大規模ベイズモデルに基づくスピンノイズの除去法" 統計数理. Vol.41. 115-130 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Higuchi.T.,G.K.Grawford.R.J.Strangeway,and C.T.Russell: "Separation of spen synchronized signals" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.46. 405-428 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 樋口知之: "モンテカルロフィルタにおけるランダムサンプリング" 情報処理学会研究報告(情報研報)94-HPC-54. Vol.94. 7-14 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawano.H.,and T.Higuchi: "The Bootstrap Method in Space Physics:Error Estimation for the Minimum Variance Analysis" Geophysical Research Letter. Vol.22. 307-310 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 川崎能典: "Johansenの共和分検定について" 金融研究. 第11巻. 99-120 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Thomson.p.j.and Ozaki.T.: "Transformation and Scasonal Adjustment" Research Memo.Vol.491. 1-24 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ozaki.T.and Thomson.P.J.: "A dynamical Systems Approach to X-11 type Scasonal Adjustment" Research Memo.Vol.498. 1-32 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ozaki.T.: "A LOCAI Linearization Approach to Non-Linear Filtering" International J.on Control. Vol.56. 75-96 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] T.Takanami and G.Kitagawa: "Multivariate time-series model to estimate the arrival times of S-waves" Computers E Geosciences. Vol.19. 295-301 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] X.-Q. Jiang and G.Kitagawa: "A time varying coefficient vector AR modeling of nonstationary covariance time series" Signal Processing. Vol.19. 295-301 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.Kitagawa: "State space modeling of time series" Proceedings of the First US/Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statisitcal Modeling:An Informational approach,ed.H.Bozdogan,Kluwer Academic Publishers,Netherlands. 43-62 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 川崎能典: "計量経済モデルと見せかけの回帰" 統計数理. 第41巻. 33-46 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Findley,D.and Wei.C.Z.: "Moment Bounds for Deriving Time Series CLT's and Model Selection Procedures" Statistical Sinica. Vol.3. 453-480 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Bell.W.and Otto.M.: "Detecting Temporary Changes in level in Time Series" Proc.American Statistical Association.Business and Economic Statistics Section. 170-174 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Chen,Bor-Chung.Creecy.Robert H.and Appel.Martin V.: "Error Control of Automated Industry and Occupation Coding" J.of Official Satistics. Vol.9. 729-745 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Bell.W.and Wilcox.D.W.: "The Effect of Stampling Error on the Time Series Behavior of Consumption Data" J.Econometrics. Vol.55. 235-265 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Chen,B.-C.and Findley.D.F.: "Mulltiplicative Tranding Day Adjustment:X-11 and REGARIMA Compared" The 1993 Proceeding of the Business and Economics Section.American Statistical Association.Alexandria,Vlrginia.220-225 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 北川源四郎: "FORTRAN77 時系列解析プログラミング、岩波コンピュータサイエンス" 岩波書店, 390 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 赤池弘次・北川源四郎編: "時系列解析の実験I、統計科学選書" 朝倉書店, 218 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 北川源四郎(分担執筆)、島内剛一ほか編: "アルゴリズム辞典" 共立出版, 951 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Brian C.Monsell: "X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual Pre-Release Version 0.2" Bureau of the Census Washington.D.C., 110 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro.Makio: "Why does AIC work?" Oyosuri, Bulletin of the Japan society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Vol.4. 19-32 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro, Makio: "On Variance/Covariance of AIC's" Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.42. 225-237 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro, Makio: "Statistical model Evaluation and Causality Analysis" Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.41. 223-232 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro, Makio: "Development of Statistical Prediction Support model" Technical Report on High-level Long-term Prediction Technique Development. 31-51 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro, Makio: "Information and Prediction" ESTRELA. No.10. 2-8 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ishiguro, M.Sakamoto, Y.and Kitagawa, G.: "Bootstrapping log likelihood and EIC,an extension of AIC" Research Memorandum. No.532. 1-25 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Thomson.P.J.and Ozaki.T.: "Transformation and Seasonal Adjustment" Research Memo.Vol.491. 1-24 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ozaki, T.and Thomson.P.J.: "A dynamical Systems Approach to X-11 type Seasonal Adjustment" Reasearch Memo.Vol.498. 1-32 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Ozaki.T.: "A Local Linearization Approach to Non-Linear Filtering" International J.on Control. Vol.56. 75-96 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] T.Takanami and G.Kitagawa: "Multivariate time-series model to estimate the arrival times of S-waves" Computers * Geosciences. Vol.19. 295-301 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] X.-Q.Jiang and G.Kitagawa: "A time varying coefficient vector AR modeling of nonstationary covariance time series" Signal Processing. Vol.19. 295-301 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.Kitagawa: "State space modeling of time series" Proceedings of the First US/Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statisitcal Modeling : An Informational approach, ed.H.Bozdogan.Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands. 43-62 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.Kitagawa: "The two-filter formula for smoothing and an inplementation of the Gaussian-sum smoother" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.46. 605-623 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Higuchi, T.: "A method to separate the spin synchronized signals using a Baysian appraoch" Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.41. 115-130 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Higuchi, T., G.K.Crawford, R.J.Strangeway.and C.T.Russell: "Separation of spin synchronized signals" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.46. 405-428 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Higuchi, T.: "Improvements on the estimation of the log-likelihood obtained through the Monte Carlo Filter" Proceedings of the High Performance Computing. Vol.94. 7-14 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawano.H., and T.Higuchi: "The Bootstrap Method in Space Physics : Error Estimation for the Minimum Variance Analysis" Geophysical Research Letter. Vol.22. 307-310 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawasaki.Y.: "On Johansen's cointegration test procedure (in Japanese)" Kinyu-Kenkyu, Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. Vol.11. 99-120 (1992)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Kawasaki.Y.: "Econometric models and spurious regression (in Japanese with English summary)" Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics. Vol.41. 33-46 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Findley, D.and Wei, C.Z.: "Moment Bounds for Deriving Time Series CLT's and Model Selection Procedures" Statistical Sinica. Vol.3. 453-480 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Bell, W.and Otto, M.: "Detecting Temporary Changes in level in Time Series" Proc.American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section. 170-174 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Chen, Bor-Chung, Creecy, Robert H.and Appel, Martin V.: "Error Control of Automated Industry and Occupation Coding" J.of Official Statistics. Vol.9. 729-745 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Bell, W.and Wilcox, D.W.: "The Effect of Sampling Error on the Time Series Behavior of Consumption Data" J.Econometrics. Vol.55. 235-265 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Chen.B.-C.and Findley, D.F.: "Mulltiplicative Trading Day Adjustment : X-11 and REGARIMA Compared" The 1993 Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section.American Statistical Association.Alexandria.VIrginia.220-225 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.Kitagawa: Iwanami Publishing Company. FORTRAN 77 Programing for Time Series Analysis, 390 (1993)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] H.Aaike and G.Kitagawa (eds.): Asakura Publishing Company. Practice of Time Series Analysis I, 218 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] G.Kitagawa: Kyoritsu Shuppan Co., Ltd.Dictionary of algorithms, Shimanouchi etc.eds., 951 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Brian C.Monsell: Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C.X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual Pre-Release Version 0.2, 110 (1995)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1994 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Hirotugu Akaike: "Implication of informational point of view on the development of statistical science" Proceedings of the First US/JAPAN Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling. 3. 27-38 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hirotugu Akaike: "Experiences on the development of time series models" Proceedings of the First US/JAPAN Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling. 1. 33-42 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "ARdockによる人-二輪車系の解析" 時系列解析の実際. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 石黒真木夫: "統計的モデルと因果解析" 統計数理. 41. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Genshiro Kitagawa: "Information Criteria for the Predictive evaluation of Bayesian Moels" Research Mewo. No 481. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Tohru Ozaki: "Non-Gaussian Characteristics of exponential autoregressive processes" Development in Time Series Analysis Chapman & Hall. 257-273 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] P.J.Thomson & T.Ozaki: "Transformation and Seasonal Adjustment" I.S.M.Research Memo. 491. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] T.Ozaki & P.J.Thomson: "A dynamical systems approach to X-11 type seasonal adjustment" I.S.M.Research Memo. 498. (1994)

    • Related Report
      1993 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hirotugu Akaike: "Implication of informational point of view on the development of statistical science" Proceedings of the First US/JAPAN Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Hirotugu Akaike: "Experiences on the development of time series models" Proceedings of the First US/JAPAN Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Tohru Ozaki: "A local linearigation approach to nonlinear filtering" Int.J.Control. 57. 75-96 (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Tohru Ozaki: "Identification of Nonlinearities and Non-Gaussinities in Time Series" New Direction in Time Series Analysis Springer-Verlog. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Genshiro Kitagawa: "A Monte Carlo filtering and swoothing method for non-Gaussiam nonlinear state space models" Research Memo No462,The Inst.Statist.Mathematics,Tokyo.(1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Makio Ishiguro: "Syotem Analysis and Seasonal Adjustment through Model Fitting" Proceedings of the First US/JAPAN Couference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling. (1993)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Makio Ishiguro,Hiroko Kato and Sadao Naniwa: "VSA/VAR MODEL,vector seasonal adjustment/vector auto-regressive model" Research Memo.No,458,The Inst.Statist.Mathematics,Tokyo. (1992)

    • Related Report
      1992 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1992-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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