MORICHI Shigeru Tokyo Institute of Technology, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (40016473)
HYODO Tetsuro Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine, Associate Professor, 商船学部, 助教授 (40218748)
OKAMOTO Naohisa Tokyo Institute of Technology, Research Associate, 工学部, 助手 (70242295)
|Budget Amount *help
¥6,300,000 (Direct Cost : ¥6,300,000)
Fiscal Year 1993 : ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost : ¥1,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1992 : ¥4,900,000 (Direct Cost : ¥4,900,000)
In this paper, there are four parts. Firstly, considering the current circumstance in Japan, there is a need to investi-gate through the microscopic view. In this study, several factors, such as hierarchy of the road, illegal parking along the road and obstructions which make shorter the sight distance, are determined by the microscopic investigation of the places where the accidents occurred.
Secondly, the GIS, integrated with traffic accident, road structure and land use data, is built for traffic accident analysis. In the process of buliding the system, databases for three types of road (all roads, trunk roads and local roads) are created for the analysis, and using these, many factors causing accidents are found out effectively.
Thirdly, statistical models are also made to identify the factors of accident. The regression model is often used in traffic accident analysis, but, this method is based on large samples. In this study, Poisson regression model is built because it considers rare phenomena of accidents. Compared to the regression model, this model has better results.
Finally, in the analysis of accidents based on survey data, it is interesting to note that in areas perceived by people as dangerous, the actual accident occurrence is less than the estimated occurrence. Therefore, new models are developed to take into account these psychological factors.