| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000)
Fiscal Year 1993: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 1992: ¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to capture cognitive image of political independents through opinion survey. I conducted public opinion surveys twice during the designated research period, 1993-94, in Yokohama City. In 1993, a panel designed mail survey was conducted before and after the House of Councillors Election held on July 26, 1993. In 1994, a panel study of telephone survey was conducted before and after the House of Representatives election held on July 18, 1994.
In the latter xase, due to the budgetary limitation, I designed the sampling scheme (Random Digital Dialing ; RDD). Also, I developed CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Intervies) system with cooperation of a research group for "Electoral Behavior and Democracy" (chaired by Professor Mitsuru Uchida of Waseda University), and I participated an omnibus telephone survey, some questions of which could be used for this study.
Analyzing the data drawn from these two surveys in 1993 and 1994, I could confirm the existence of some independent voters who are not indifferent to politics nor interested in elections but chose not to support any particular party. When the questionnaire starts to ask the respondents if they have some orientation toward political independence, the percentage of the respondents who call themselves "independents" (about 65%) are far higher the percentage of those "independents" in the traditional method of asking partisanship (sbout 35%).
Of the 65 percent of those independents in the new method of tapping partisanship of respondents, one third of them consciously chose not to support any particular party. In other words, they have positive orientation toward "being independent". These consciously independent voters seem to have had some important (not insignificant) impact on the direction of the on-going partisan realignment in today's Japan.
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