Grant-in-Aid for International Scientific Research.
|Research Institution||Kobe University|
KAKO Toshiyuki Faculty of Agriculture, Kobe University, 農学部, 教授 (00121533)
黄 宗煌 清華大学, 経済学部, 教授
朴 俊根 全南大学, 農学部, 教授
GREENWALK Be 州立アーカンソー大学, 農学部, 講師
WAILES J Eri アーカンソー州立大学, 農学部, 教授
弦間 正彦 早稲田大学, 社会科学部, 助教授 (90231729)
黒田 誼 筑波大学, 社会工学系, 教授 (60114071)
伊東 正一 鳥取大学, 農学部, 助教授 (30222425)
GREENWALT Be アーカンソー州立大学, 講師
WAILES Eric アーカンソー州立大学, 教授
GREENWAIT Be 州立アーカンソー大学, 農学部, 講師
WAILES J.Eri アーカンソー州立大学, 農学部, 教授
金子 治平 神戸大学, 農学部, 助教授 (40204557)
HUANG Chung-Huang Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University
GEENWALT Bert Faculty of Agriculture, Arkansas State University
PARK Joon-Keun Faculty of Agriculture, Chonnam National University
WAILES J.Eric Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University od Arkansas
GEMMA Masahiko Department of Social Science, Waseda University
KANEKO Jihei Faculty of Agriculture, Kobe University
KURODA Yoshimi Institute of Policy and Planning Science, University of Tsukuba
ITO Shoichi Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University
|Project Fiscal Year
1994 – 1996
Completed(Fiscal Year 1996)
|Budget Amount *help
¥25,400,000 (Direct Cost : ¥25,400,000)
Fiscal Year 1996 : ¥8,200,000 (Direct Cost : ¥8,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1995 : ¥8,100,000 (Direct Cost : ¥8,100,000)
Fiscal Year 1994 : ¥9,100,000 (Direct Cost : ¥9,100,000)
|Keywords||Rice / Supply and Demand / Projection / Policy Analysis / Price / Income / GATT / Population / Econometric Analysis / コメ / 需要と供給 / 将来予測 / 政策分析 / 価格 / 所得 / 計量経済分析 / ガット・ウルグアイ・ラウンド|
Rice is the dominant staple food crop and the most important agricultural product in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Preserving rice self-sufficiency has been the important objective of agricultural policy, and the rice sector has been strongly protected economically and politically in these three countries. Due to acceptance of the GATT Uruguay Round agreement in 1995, Japan and South Korea partially opened their rice market. Taiwan is not a member of the GATT,but it is seeking GATT membership. The most likely terms to be agreed upon for rice is said to be similar to the Japanese arrangement. On the other hand, the U.S.rice sector is going to experience a big change under the WTO and the 1996 farm bill.
There are five major objectives in this study : first, to investigate government programs implemented to improve production efficiency and reduce production costs in rice ; second, to analyze the factors that caused a decrease in per capita rice consumption ; third, to identify factors
to increas rice production while analyzing growth accounting and estimate rice production in the future ; fourth, to project supply and demand in each country for the next fifteen years and develop policy scenarios based on the estimates ; and the last, to investigate the U.S.rice supply and demand situation and its export potential to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan in the next fifteen years.
The major conclusions related to future supply and demand balance of rice are as follows :
1.Because of the minimum access rice import, declining rice consumption, and yield growth, the rice diversion program will need to be expanded in Japan.
2.The annual supply/demand balance of rice is predicted to be negative during the period 1995-2010, and South Korea may have to start importing some more rice in addition to the minimum access import at the end of the 1990s.
3.Although Taiwan has been exporting some rice, rice production will start declining due to the decrease in rice area harvested, and will become a rice importer in the future.
4.Because of the cut back in export subsidies and agricultural budget, rice production and rice exports of the U.S.are likely to decrease. Less