増田 民夫 東京電力(株), 建設部・土木調査課, 課長
TONG Huanan Institute of Industrial Science, Univ.of Tokyo, Research Associate, 生産技術研究所, 助手 (80260511)
YAMAZAKI Fumio Institute of Industrial Science, Univ.of Tokyo, Associate Professor, 生産技術研究所, 助教授 (50220322)
KATAYAMA Tsuneo Institute of Industrial Science, Univ.of Tokyo, Professor, 生産技術研究所, 教授 (70013216)
|Budget Amount *help
¥5,700,000 (Direct Cost : ¥5,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1995 : ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost : ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 1994 : ¥4,500,000 (Direct Cost : ¥4,500,000)
Modern societies heavily rely on electric power. These societies suffer functional damage due to the lack/reduction of power when natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons strike.
As the first step for developing a new methodology for estimating the effects on power outage, a database consisting regional characteristics and electric power demand of 314 distribution substations in the Tokyo Metropolis using Geographic Information System (GIS) is constructed. The estimation of power outage is by considering the characteristics of the area, and time and duration of outage. From the study of the database, it is found that although power demand of a city area changes with time, season, and areal characteristics, it can be classified into four typical areas (residential, office, industrial, and entertainment) based on the shape of load curves. The pure four elemental load curves were calculated based on the assumption that every load curve is a combination of the four typical curves
by multiple regression analysis. To estimate the areal characteristics from the power demand, the concept of "contribution rate" is introduced and calculated among 314 distribution substation areas. Using the contribution rate, we could classify the areas considering the characteristics of their load curves.
Next, we developed a new methodology based on areal characteristics, time and duration of power outage. With the new methodology, characteristics of distribution substation areas are considered by contribution rate of four elemental load curves, consumption and contents of electricity of the area. In each typical area ; residential, office, industrial and entertainment, major consumer electrical goods and the important function of each electrical good were picked. The new methodology was applied in Tokyo Metropolis and it is found that the effects due to power outage heavily depend on areal characteristics, time and duration of blackout. Using the simulation results, we made maps which show the effects due to power outage in Tokyo Metropolis. These maps can be used for optimum strategy for reinforcing the facilities and prioritizing the measures for power outage. Less