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A Development of Price Forecasting System by Neural Network

Research Project

Project/Area Number 06660283
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Agro-economics
Research InstitutionTottori University

Principal Investigator

FUJII Yoshinori  Tottori University Fac.Agric.Professor, 農学部, 教授 (20032097)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SEMBOKUYA Yasushi  Tottori University Fac.Agic.Assistant Professor, 農学部, 講師 (50243382)
Project Period (FY) 1994 – 1995
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 1995)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1995: ¥300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 1994: ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000)
KeywordsPrice forcasting / Neural Network / Demand for information / Market for agricultural products / 青果物価格予測 / 価格予測システム
Research Abstract

The aim of this research is to apply the neural network information processing theory to an analysis of demand structure of fruits and vegetables and examine the ability of neural network in non-linear analysis and its internal representations. Neural network has the ability to reproduce the input-output relationship, which generally hard to be understood, by appropriate learning process. After learning, the neural network used to be applied to simulation because it has obtained enough knowledge about sample data. But if the neural network can not make the internal representations of sample data precisely, there will be no grounds for simulation.
We used MR neural network which is a kind of modified feed-forward neural network and acts like Multiple Regression analysis. For the analysis, we input the quantity forwarded from six producing areas including Tottori prefecture and forwarding time as input data, and the actual prices of the vegetables produced in Tottori as teaching data, so that it could learn the relationship of these data. After the learning ended, we simulated the relation between quantity of forwarded and price.
The obtained results represented non-linearity of the demand structure. the internal representations of the neural network showed the demand structure of fruits and vegatables precisely. Thus, the non-linearity of the demand structure was given logical grounds.
The results shows that the price of vegetables has no linear relationship with quantity.

Report

(3 results)
  • 1995 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 1994 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (5 results)

All Other

All Publications (5 results)

  • [Publications] 仙北谷康: "ニューラルネットワークによる青果物の需要構造分析" 鳥取大学農学部研究報告. 47. 125-130 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Yasushi SEMBOKUYA: "Demand Analysis in Vegetables and Fruits with the Method od Neural Network Information Processing theory" Bull.Fac.Agric.Tottori Univ.47. 125-130 (1994)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      1995 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 仙北谷康: "ニューラルネットワークによる青果物の需要構造分析" 鳥取大学農学部研究報告. 47. 125-130 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1995 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 仙北谷 康: "ニューラルネットワークによる青果物の需要構造分析" 鳥取大学農学部研究報告. 47. 125-130 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 仙北谷 康・金山紀久: "農協における青果物価格予測情報の需要構造" 鳥取大学農学部研究報告. 47. 131-137 (1994)

    • Related Report
      1994 Annual Research Report

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Published: 1994-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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