Study on Evaluation/Projection Model for Medium/Long Term Planning in East Asian Countries
Project/Area Number |
09630040
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
Section | 一般 |
Research Field |
経済政策(含経済事情)
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Research Institution | Nagoya University |
Principal Investigator |
EZAKI Mitsuo Nagoya University, Graduate School of International Development, Professor, 大学院・国際開発研究科, 教授 (60029915)
|
Project Period (FY) |
1997 – 1999
|
Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 1999)
|
Budget Amount *help |
¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
Fiscal Year 1999: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1998: ¥500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 1997: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
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Keywords | CGE model / medium / long term projection / regional development / environmental problem / trade liberalization / productivity / East Asian countries / China / 他部門一般均衡 / 開発計画 / 地域モデル / 四川省 / インドネシア / 中長期計画 / 通貨危機 / 日本 |
Research Abstract |
Focusing on China, I have developed CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models of development planning and policies for the evaluation and projection. I have applied the models to the analysis and projection of growth, environment, trade liberalization and regional development in China. Starting from model of Vietnam, I have applied similar models also to Thailand and Indonesia, though not fully. The research report includes three major outcomes from the methodological point of view. First, a CGE model of China is now available which can be used for long term simulations up to 2010-2020 with distinguishable 10-35 industries constructed on the basis of the latest 1997 input-output table. Second, a two-region CGE model is now available which is an extension of the natural CGE model above. It can be extended easily to more than two regions and is useful for the analysis of regional problems. Third, a new method of estimation is now available for capital stocks and total factor productivity (TFP) in both national and regional levels. Application of the new method in industry level is possible but with data constraint. The next step of research is a comprehensive analysis based on the CGE modeling above of the three major problems which China faces now and also in the 21st century : sustainable growth, macro-control, and balanced regional development.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(24 results)