MARUYAMA Nobuo Aichi University, Modern Chinese Studies, Professor, 現代中国学部, 教授 (00013277)
USUI Tsutomu Takasaki College of Commerce, Professor, 教授 (90223536)
KOHAMA Hirohisa University of Shizuoka, International Relations, Professor, 国際関係学部, 教授 (40201488)
TAMURA Toshiyuki Tokyo Metropolitan University, Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (10086978)
SHIMOMURA Yasutami Institute of Comparative Economic Studies Hosei University, Professor, 比較経済研究所, 教授 (60241923)
|Budget Amount *help
¥7,800,000 (Direct Cost : ¥7,800,000)
Fiscal Year 1999 : ¥3,700,000 (Direct Cost : ¥3,700,000)
Fiscal Year 1998 : ¥4,100,000 (Direct Cost : ¥4,100,000)
The financial crisis which occurred in Thailand on July 1997, propagated to neighboring areas, thus the East Asian countries experienced serious recessions. The cause of the crises was firstly explored in our studies, and then we investigated how these countries coped with the difficulties. Thus, we arrived at an interim report.
In the second year, the continuing research was conducted as regards the activities of Japanese corporations in these areas and also the Japan's role as a whole, thus clarifying topics to be followed onwards.
At the beginning, some pessimism prevailed that the Asian growth myth now had disappeared. But, actually unexpectedly rapid recoveries have prevailed in the macro-economic indicators. In the GDP growth predictions of 1999, a number of countries showed some V-shaped recoveries (Korea10.3%, Thailand4.0%, even Indonesia0.2%).
However, we have encountered quite a lot of structural problems. Suvinai of Thailand pointed out that some drastic financial reform is
needed in face of an increased bad assets. The Zaibatsu reform in Korea, the state corporation problems in China, and the paternalism in Indonesia, etc, were observed. The needs of re-orientation of financial system and the fostering of supporting industries were thus emphasized.
Mohamed Ariff of Malaysia pointed out the structural reform was rather postponed due to a so rapid economic recovery. Naturally, the role of the IMF support and the role displayed by Japan should not be neglected, but nevertheless the IMF conditionality was criticized that it is unrealistic particularly in Indonesia. As of the Japan's support, the new Miyazawa's Initiative, etc. received a high evaluation, yet the much faster rebound of the Japanese economy is needed for the full-scale expansion of the economy in this region. In this sense, the Miyazawa's Initiative seems to be merely a brake for the vicious spiral to come.
Shinohara, the representative of the study team, however, observed that the ASEAN4 and China will turn back to the track of their take-off, once the negative impacts of the financial crisis will fade away, and the export will start to expand and the inflow of direct investment will accelerate. Anyway, for the sustained growth to be realized in the global age, the solution of structural reform has to be on the track.