MORITSU Hideo Ryutsu Kagaku University, Information Science, Professor, 情報学部, 教授 (10107980)
TAKEBAYASHI Mikio Kobe University, Civil Engineering, Associate Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (80236497)
|Budget Amount *help
¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost : ¥3,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2001 : ¥500,000 (Direct Cost : ¥500,000)
Fiscal Year 2000 : ¥700,000 (Direct Cost : ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 1999 : ¥800,000 (Direct Cost : ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 1998 : ¥1,400,000 (Direct Cost : ¥1,400,000)
This research aims to develop the equilibrium model of international container cargo transport market and evaluate the policy of port development/management. First, we develop the equilibrium model, which is consisted of two economic subjects, the carriers and shippers. In this model, it is assumed that the carriers aim to minimize their operation cost under the existence of shippers' Nash equilibrium. And the shippers are also assumed to behave myopically, so their aim is to minimize their generalized cost.
Using the developed model, we estimate the future network of Asian-Pacific-European container cargo transport The shape of resultant network is hub-spoke network, which means large vessels and transshipment cargo are concentrated to a couple of big ports. Especially, the Hanshin, the Pusan and the Singapore port enjoy the role as the gateway ports for the intercontinental transport. Moreover, it is understood that the Hanshin and the Pusan have a tight rivalry, so this rivalry is emphasized by their own port management policies, say port capacity extension and port charge pricing. Second, we evaluate the impact of introduction of Post-Panamax class large vessels. Under this situation, the hierarchy of Asian ports is emphasized more strongly, so that the Hong Kong and the Pusan have the market dominance.
Finally, we evaluate the possibility of use of the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route. We concluded that under the current situation, there is no way to use the Siberian Land Bridge as the alternative route of sea route because of its high pricing on the railway transport, slow speed of transport on railway and the serious shortness of capability of container cargo handling at Vostchny port.