| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
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| Research Abstract |
[1] Coevolutionary dynamics of host plant and fungus pathogen uder gene-for-gene interaction is analyzed. The effect of mixed planting of resistant races, and the introduction of multiple resistance against pathogens are theoretically evaluated (Sasaki A, Proc. R, Soc. Lond. B, 2000; Iwanaga A, Sasaki A, in review).
Also investigated is the spontaneous asynchrony emerging in the gene-for-gene dynamics in metapopulation (Sasaki A, Hamilton WD, Ubeda F, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 2002).
[2] Optimal drug treatment under the development of drug resistance in HIV and pathogenic bacteria is studied taking into account the random drift due to a finite population. The effect of random drift in antigenic drift of HIV in a host is also analyzed using a finite site model for viral epitopes (Haraguchi Y, Sasaki A, J. Mol. Evol., 2000).
[3] The probability of re-emergence of vaccine derived virulent virus after the secession of oral polio vaccination is estimated based on the epidemilological dynamics, wa
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ring theoretically that the risk of virulent virus outbreak is quite high (Haraguchi Y, Sasaki A, Yoshida H, Am. J. Epidem. in review).
[4] Maralia control strategy is proposed which make use of the zooprolylaxis (the attraction of vector mosquitoes to an dead-end host of malaria). With an intermediate use of insecticide, the malaria can be eradicated without allowing the development of insecticide resistance in mosquitoes (Kawaguchi I, Sasaki A, Mogi M, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, in review).
[5] A pecuriar phenomena of mortality enhancement at the second infection by dengue viruses is modeled, and its effect on the stable cocirculation of dengue subtypes is analyzed theoretically (Kawaguchi I, Sasaki A, Boots M, Evolution, in review).
[6] The effect of spatial structure and the contact network structure ('small world' effect) on the evolution of virulence and the epidemiological dynamics is analyzed (Haraguchi Y, Sasaki A, J. theor. Biol., 2000; Boots M, Sasaki A, Ecology Letters, 2000; Boots M, Sasaki A, Am. Nat., 2002).
[7] The multistrain epidemiological dynamics with seasonality and cross-immunity is analyzed to forecast the pattern of epidemic outbreaks (Kamo M, Sasaki A, Physica D, 2002). Less
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