| Project/Area Number |
12670358
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public health/Health science
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| Research Institution | HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
TANAKA Junko FACULTY OF MEDICINE, HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, 医学部, 講師 (70155266)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NAKANISHI Toshio FACULTY OF MEDICINE, HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, 医学部・附属病院, 助教授 (20136089)
KATAYAMA Keiko FACULTY OF MEDICINE, HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, 医学部, 助手 (50304415)
YOSHIZAWA Hiroshi FACULTY OF MEDICINE, HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY, PROFESSOR, 医学部, 教授 (30109954)
KUMADA Hiromitsu TORANOMON HOSPITAL, DIRECTOR, 消化器科, 部長
守屋 尚 広島大学, 医学部, 講師 (40243563)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2001
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2001)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2000: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000)
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| Keywords | HCV carriers / Natural courses / Markov process / Mathematical model / Incidence of HCC |
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| Research Abstract |
We presented natural courses of HCV carriers using mathematical model by Marcov process. This Model is based on clinical courses of HCV carriers of various clinical stages. According to this model, we assessed efficacy of intervention, such as examination and treatment for HCV carriers, to reduce mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV infection. From this, we concluded in the following three ways.
First, we made the model of natural course of HCV carrier by Marcov process. The model include five clinical stages ; asymptomatic carriers, chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, HCC, and resolution of HCC infection.
Second, we recalculated the mathematical model on data of clinical course of 942 HCV carriers, who were found at the chance of blood donation. We estimated that incidence of HCC among asymptomatic carriers at the age of 40 years old was 10.6% in male and 4.5% in female. And we estimated that the incidence of HCC was very high in male over 60 years old and in female 70 years old.
Third, using the recalculated model, we get two clinical courses of HCV carrier from normal population in two cases, in one case they were screened for HCV carriers and in the other case they were not.
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