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Studies on Highly accurate Short-term Electric Power Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Data Mining

Research Project

Project/Area Number 13650319
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 電力工学・電気機器工学
Research InstitutionMeiji University

Principal Investigator

MORI Hiroyuki  Meiji University, Dept.of Electronics & Bioinformatics, Professor (70174381)

Project Period (FY) 2001 – 2003
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2003)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000)
KeywordsLoad forecasting / Fuzzy Inference / Data Mining / Rule Discovery / Meta-heuristics / Tabu Search / Regression Tree / データマイニング / 時系列予測 / 大域的最適化 / 学習システム / 電力付荷予測 / ニューラルネット
Research Abstract

In this project, a new hybrid intelligent system has been proposed for short-term load forecasting in power systems. The proposed method is based on the regression tree of data mining, Simplified Fuzzy Inference and Tabu Search of Meta-heuristics. The regression tree works to extract rules from data base though the decision tree so that if-then rules are obtained. Simplified Fuzzy Inference (SFI) is a good nonlinear approximation technique for nonlinear systems that is equivalent to the multi-layered perceptron (MLP) of artificial neural network. The use of Tabu Search allows SFI to construct the globally optimal rules in terms of the number of fuzzy membership functions and their location. As a result, the proposed model is superior to MLP in terms of the prediction error. At the same time, SFI is applied to the regression tree to improve the boundary conditions of the splitting conditions. The fuzzy rules contributed to the classification of data on load forecasting.
Also, the use of TS is easier to determine the forecasting model from a standpoint of minimizing the maximum errors of load forecasting model through the learning process due to the advantage without any constraints. Therefore, power system operators have flexibility to give priority to the maximum or the average squared errors.
In addition, the developed model contributed to the reduction of the reserves of generation so that it plays an important role as the decision making system of selling and buying the electricity and make power system operation and control more effective.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2003 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2002 Annual Research Report
  • 2001 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (52 results)

All 2003 2002 2001 Other

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (35 results) Publications (9 results)

  • [Journal Article] An Efficient Hybrid Method of Regression Tree and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Journal Title

      A..Lofti and M.J.Garibaldi(Eds.),"Applications and Science in Soft Computing"(Springer)

      Pages: 287-294

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An Efficient Hybrid Method of Regression Tree and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Journal Title

      (Springer, Berlin, Germany)

      Pages: 287-294

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Data mining method for short-term load forecasting in power systems2002

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Mori, Noriyuki Kosemura
    • Journal Title

      Electrical Engineering in Japan(Wiley InterScience) 139

      Pages: 12-22

    • NAID

      10005721949

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A data mining method for short-term load forecasting in power systems2002

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Mori, Noriyuki Kosemura
    • Journal Title

      Electrical Engineering in Japan(Wiley InterScience) Vol.139, Issue 2

      Pages: 12-22

    • NAID

      10005721949

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Deterministic Annealing Clustering for ANN-Based Short-term Load Forecasting2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, A.Yuihara
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Trans.on Power Systems 16

      Pages: 545-551

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ファジィ最適回帰2進木を用いた短期電力負荷予測2001

    • Author(s)
      森, 小瀬村, 石黒, 近藤
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌B 121-B

      Pages: 1849-1855

    • NAID

      10007232311

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Deterministic Annealing Clustering for ANN-Based Short-term Load Forecasting2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, A.Yuihara
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Trans.on Power Systems Vol.16, No.3

      Pages: 545-551

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Short-term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Optimal Regression Tree2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, K.Isiguro, T.Kondo
    • Journal Title

      Trans.of IEEJ-B Vol.121-B, No.12

      Pages: 1849-1855

    • NAID

      10007232311

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] An Integrated Method of Fuzzy Data Mining and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani
    • Organizer
      Proc.of IEEE ISAP 2003
    • Place of Presentation
      Limnos, Greece
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-31
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] An Integrated Method of Fuzzy Data Mining and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani
    • Organizer
      Proc.of ISAP
    • Place of Presentation
      Limnos, Greece(CD-ROM)
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-31
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 回帰二進木を用いた翌日最大電力の特徴抽出2003

    • Author(s)
      森啓之, 坂谷嘉則, 藤野達郎, 沼一之
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文I
    • Place of Presentation
      東京電機大学神田キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-06
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] SOMとMLPを用いたハイブリッド電力負荷予測2003

    • Author(s)
      森啓之、板垣忠大
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文II
    • Place of Presentation
      東京電機大学神田キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-06
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Feature Extraction of One-step Ahead Daily Maximum Load with Regression Tree2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Fifteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-06
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] A Hybrid Method of SOM and MLP for Load Forecasting2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, T.Itagaki
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Thirteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2003-08-06
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 確率的手法を用いたラジアル基底関数ネットワークによる短期電力負荷予測2003

    • Author(s)
      森, 山田, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北学院大学泉キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 前処理付き2段階RBFNによる短期電力負荷予測2003

    • Author(s)
      森, 青山, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北学院大学泉キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] ファジィ短期負荷予測への00-TS法の適用2003

    • Author(s)
      森, 坂谷, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北学院大学泉キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Radial Basis Function Network Based Short-term Load Forecasting Using Probabilistic Method2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, S.Yamada, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the National Convention Record
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Two-staged RBFN with Precondition Technique for Short-term Load Forecasting2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, H.Aoyama, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the National Convention Record
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Application of OO-TS Method to Fuzzy Short-term Load Forecasting2003

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the National Convention Record
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2003-03-17
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] An Efficient Hybrid Method of Regression Tree and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of RASC 2002
    • Place of Presentation
      Nottingham, UK
    • Year and Date
      2002-11-16
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] An ANN-based Method for Probabilistic Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, S.Yamada, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of RASC 2002
    • Place of Presentation
      Nottingham, UK
    • Year and Date
      2002-11-16
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] ファジィデータマイニングを用いた短期電力負荷予測2002

    • Author(s)
      森, 坂谷, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会電力技術・電力系統技術合同研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道工業大学
    • Year and Date
      2002-09-04
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Fuzzy Data Mining for Short-term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of Joint Technical Meeting on Power Engineering and Power Systems Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2002-09-04
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] RBFNによる確率的電力負荷予測2002

    • Author(s)
      森, 山田, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文II
    • Place of Presentation
      福井大学
    • Year and Date
      2002-08-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 最適データマイニングを用いた簡略ファジィ推論による短期電力負荷予測2002

    • Author(s)
      森, 坂谷, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文II
    • Place of Presentation
      福井大学
    • Year and Date
      2002-08-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Probabilistic Load Forecasting with RBFN2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, S.Yamada, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Fourteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2002-08-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Optimal Data Mining for Simplified Fuzzy Inference Based Short-term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sakatani, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Fourteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2002-08-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 2段階簡略ファジィ推論を用いた短期電力負荷予測2002

    • Author(s)
      森, 小瀬村, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      工学院大学新宿校舎
    • Year and Date
      2002-03-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 短期負荷予測への適用2002

    • Author(s)
      森, 小瀬村, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      工学院大学新宿校舎
    • Year and Date
      2002-03-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Two-Staged Simplified Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the National Convention Record
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2002-03-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Applications of Meta-heuristics to Short-Term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the National Convention Record
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2002-03-26
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Data Mining for Short-term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, T.Kondo, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of 2001 IEEE PES Winter Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      New York, NY, USA
    • Year and Date
      2002-01-28
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Data Mining for Short-term Load Forecasting2002

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, T.Kondo, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of 2002 IEEE PES Winter Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      New York, NY, USA
    • Year and Date
      2002-01-28
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Short-term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Regression Tree in Power Systems2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, K.Ishiguro, T.Kondo
    • Organizer
      Proc.of 2001 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man & Cybernetics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tucson, AZ, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2001-10-07
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 回帰2進木を用いた簡略ファジィ推論による短期電力負荷予測2001

    • Author(s)
      森, 小瀬村, 藤野, 沼
    • Organizer
      電気学会電力技術・電力系統技術合同研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Year and Date
      2001-10-03
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Simplified Fuzzy Inference Based Short-term Load Forecasting with Regression Tree2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, T.Fujino, K.Numa
    • Organizer
      Proc.of Joint Technical Meeting on Power Engineering and Power Systems Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2001-10-03
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] ファジィ最適回帰2進木を用いた短期電力負荷予測2001

    • Author(s)
      森, 小瀬村, 石黒, 近藤
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文I
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学青葉山キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2001-08-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] 並列タブサーチにより最適化されたファジィ負荷予測モデル2001

    • Author(s)
      森, 曽根
    • Organizer
      電気学会B部門大会,論文I
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学青葉山キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2001-08-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Short-term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Optimal Regression Tree2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, N.Kosemura, K.Ishiguro, T.Kondo
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Thirteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2001-08-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Fuzzy Short-term Load Forecasting Optimized by Parallel Tabu Search2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, Y.Sone, D, Moridera, T.Kondo
    • Organizer
      Proc.of the Thirteenth Annual Conference of Power & Energy Society
    • Place of Presentation
      IEE of Japan
    • Year and Date
      2001-08-01
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Deterministic Annealing Clustering for ANN-Based Short-term Load Forecasting2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, A.Yuihara
    • Organizer
      Proc.of IEEE PICA2001
    • Place of Presentation
      Sydney, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2001-05-20
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Presentation] Deterministic Annealing Clustering for ANN-Based Short-term Load Forecasting2001

    • Author(s)
      H.Mori, A.Yuihara
    • Organizer
      Proc.of 2001 IEEE PICA
    • Place of Presentation
      Sydney, Australia(CD-ROM)
    • Year and Date
      2001-05-20
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2003 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 森啓之, 坂谷嘉則, 藤野達郎, 沼一之: "回帰二進木を用いた翌日最大電力の特徴抽出"電気学会論文誌B. 124-B・3. 381-388 (2004)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] H.Mori, Y.Sakatani: "An Integrated Method of Fuzzy Data Mining and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting"Proc.of ISAP. (CD-ROM). (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] H.Mori, et al.: ""An Efficient Hybrid Method of Regression Tree and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems," in Applications and Science in Soft Computing"Springer. 8 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] H.Mori, et al.: "Application of Preconditioned RBFN to Short-term Load Forecasting"Intelligent Engineering Systems through Artificial Neural Networks. 12. 1355-1366 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] H.Mori, et al.: "An Efficient Hybrid Method of Regression Tree and Fuzzy Inference for Short-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems"Proc. of RASC 2002. 1-6 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] H.Mori, et al.: "An ANN-based Method for Probabilistic Shotr-term Load Forecasting in Electric Power Systems"Proc. of RASC 2002. 471-476 (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 森, 小瀬村, 石黒, 近藤: "ファジィ最適回帰2進木を用いた短期電力負荷予測"電気学会論文誌B. 121-B・12. 1849-1855 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Mori, Kosemura, Ishiguro, Kondo: "Short-term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Regression Tree in Power Systems"Proc. of 2001 IEEE SMC Meeting. (CD-ROM). 1948-1953 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Mori, Kosemura, Kondo, Numa: "Data Mining for Short-term Load Forecasting"Proc. of 2002 IEEE PES Winter Meeting. (CD-ROM). 2 (2000)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2001-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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