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Sensitivity Analysis for Multiregional General Equilibrium Models

Research Project

Project/Area Number 13650582
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 交通工学・国土計画
Research InstitutionGifu University

Principal Investigator

MIYAGI Toshihiko  Gifu University, Faculty of Regional Studies, Professor, 地域科学部, 教授 (20092968)

Project Period (FY) 2001 – 2002
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2002)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2001: ¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
KeywordsNonlinear sensitivity analysis / Johasen's linear approximation / Decomposition approach / Complemetaritv Formulation / MultiregionalCGE model / Interregional trade theory / CGEモデル / 相補性問題 / Harbergerモデル / 比較静学的分析 / 数値解析 / 経済政策評価 / 国際貿易理論 / ヘクシャー・オリーンモデル / 氷解モデル / ヨハンソンモデル / 感度分析 / パーセンテージ変化モデル
Research Abstract

Main results of this research project is summarized as follows :
1. We have adopted Matheisen's approach as a basic model for formulating of computable general equilibrium in regional economy, where a complemetarity formulation is applied to describe interaction of various economic activities. We have then extended Mathiesen's model to include interregional trade pattern so that the model can deal with economic evaluations arising from the improvements of transportation services. We have also proved that our SCGE model has no unique solution. That property is an essential for calibrating the model-parameters to the given benchmark equilibrium conditions.
2. Several types of sensitivity analyses are discussed in the research ; Analytical approach (e.g. comparative static analysis), Johansen' linear approximation approach, nonlinear sensitivity approach and the decomposition approach. We have derived analytical solution for Harberger's two sector model to see the effects of changes in tax … More rate. This kind of excise is very instructive for developing of computation algorithm like nonlinear sensitivity analysis. Johansen's approach is essentially the same as the nonlinear sensitivity approach ; however, it is important to note that Johansen's model can deal with %variation in exogenously given policy-oriented variables. We develop the decomposition approach where the total production growth in regional economy is partitioned into several different parametric effects such as transportation effects, production technology effects and final demand effects.
3. As our model is formulated with a mixed complementarily problem, efficient computation procedures that have been recently developed can be applied, in which local convergence properties are proved. We checked the convergence properties for those procedures, and observed that Jacobian matrix obtained in calculation process is easily used for the purpose of sensitivity analysis.
4. We have developed several kinds of program packages ; Visual Basic programming languages linked with Excel, FORTRAN programming language for Newton type algorithm and GAMS language for a mixed complementarity formulation. In Excel programming, we have used Fisher's merit function for solving a complemetarity model formulation. The Excel is quite suitable and efficient for small scale regional economy, thus, we can prove the economic equilibrium conditions corresponding to characteristics of regional economic environments and examine the effects of changes in exogenously given policy-variables. Less

Report

(3 results)
  • 2002 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2001 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (14 results)

All Other

All Publications (14 results)

  • [Publications] T.Miyagi: "Appraisal of Multiregional Impacts by a Large Scale Expressway Project"Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers. TI2001-0066. 16 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] J.Q.Ying, T.Miyagi: "Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic Use Equilibrium Network Flows"Transportation Science. Vol.35, No.2. 124-133 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] 宮城, 石川, 由利, 土谷: "全国都道府県産業連関表に基づく地域構造分析"土木計画学研究発表会論文集. Vol.20. (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] MPEC研究会: "MPECに基づく交通・地域政策分析"勁草書房. 160 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] T. Miyagi: "Appraisal of Multiregional Impacts by a Large Scale Expressway Project-Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach"Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers. TI 2001-0066. 16 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] J. Q. Ying and T. Miyagi: "Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic User Equilibrium Network Flows"Transportation Science. Vol.35, No.2. 124-133 (2001)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] T. Miyagi, Y. Ishikawa, S. Yuri and Tuchiya: "Regional Analysis Based on Inter-prefectural Input-output Table"Infrastructure Planning and Management. Vol. 20. (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Research Group of MPEC: "MPEC Applications to Regional and Transportation Research"Keisou Shobou. 160 (2003)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2002 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] J.Q.Ying, T.Miyagi: "Sensitivity Analysis for Sfochastic User Equilibrium Network Flows : A Dual Approach"Transportation Science. Vol35,No.2. 124-133 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] T.Miyagi: "Economic Appraisal for Mulyi-regional Jmpacts by a Large Scale Expressway Project-A Computable General Equilibrium Approach"Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers. TI2001-0066B. 1-16 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Miyagi, T., Y.ishikawa: "Inferregional Trade Modeling in the SCGE framework"Papers presented at Pan-Pacific Regional Conference. (CD-ROM). (2001)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] 宮城俊彦, 石川良文, 清水美帆: "全国都道府県産業連関表に基づく地域構造分析"第26回土木計画学研究発表会・講演集. Vol.26(CD-ROM). (2002)

    • Related Report
      2002 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] J. Q. Ying, T. Miyagi: "Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic User Equilibrium Network Flows - A Dual Approach"Transportation Science. Vol.35,No.2. 124-133 (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] T. Miyagi: "Economic Appraisal for Multi-regional Impacts by a Large Scale Expressway Project - A Computable General Equilibrium Approach"Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers. TI.2001-006613. (2001)

    • Related Report
      2001 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2001-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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