| Project/Area Number |
14203001
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済理論
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
ASAKO Kazumi Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research, Professor, 経済研究所, 教授 (60134194)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KANOH Satoru Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research, Professor, 経済研究所, 教授 (50114971)
KOMAKI Yasuyuki Nihon University, College of Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (80339225)
HONDA Yuzo Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (80137249)
MIIYAGAWA Tsutomu Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (30272777)
WAKITA Shigeru Tokyo Metropolitan University, Faculty of Urban Liberal Arts, Professor, 都市教養学部, 教授 (60242046)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2002 – 2005
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥43,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥33,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥10,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥9,360,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,160,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥10,920,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,520,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥11,960,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,760,000)
Fiscal Year 2002: ¥11,570,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,670,000)
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| Keywords | Business Cycle / Business Cycle Dating / Diffusion Index / Business Survey / Business Forecast / Stock-Watson Model / Dynamic Factor Model / Regime Switching / ダイナミックスファクターモデル / レジーム・スウィッチ / 一致指数 / 先行指数 / ダイナミック・ファクター・モデル |
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| Research Abstract |
This research project has been aiming at the business cycle judgment centering especially on the forecast of the turning points of business cycles. Since the start of the project, three subgroups have been organized, which include (A) theoretical analyses of business cycles, (B) data analyses of the Japanese economy, and (C) construction of business indicators, and each investigator decides to which of them he or she belongs. Each subgroup has frequently held research meetings till bigger inter-subgroup meetings are held once in a few months. The biggest meetings of all investigators are held at least twice in a year.
Besides each investigator's individual research outputs, this research project as a whole has produced the following joint publications :
1.ASAKO, K. and S.FUKUDA eds., Business Cycles and Business Forecast, University of Tokyo Press, July 2003.
2.ASAKO, K. ed., "Micro Heterogeneity and Japanese Macroeconomy," Financial Review, Ministry of Finance, Special Issue No.78, August 2005.
3.Series : Talking of Business Cycles, Monthly Japan Research Review, 20 issues since December 2004.
4.ASAKO, K. and T.MIYAGAWA eds., Modern Business Cycles : Theory and Evidence, University of Tokyo Press, forthcoming.
Book 1. consists of 13 articles by 19 investigators and it represents the main research outputs in the first half of the project term. Special Issue 2. includes 6 articles by 12 investigators concerning the heterogeneity of economic agents or of local economies that is becoming apparent lately underneath the macroeconomic performance of the Japanese macroeconomy. Series 3. consists of 20 short essays, each being easy explanation of each investigator's research output on business cycles. Book 4. is a forthcoming publication of the main research outputs in the second half of the project term and it contains 13 articles and 6 comments by 26 investigators in total.
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