Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
|Allocation Type||Single-year Grants|
|Research Institution||Hokkaido University|
OKADA Shigeyuki Hokkaido University, School of Engineering, Associate professor, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (70016476)
岡田 成幸 名古屋工業大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (50125291)
TAKAI Nobuo Hokkaido University, School of Engineering, Research Associate, 大学院・工学研究科, 助手 (10281792)
KIYONO Junji Kyoto University, School of Engineering, Associate Professor, 大学院・工学研究科, 助教授 (00161597)
WATOH Yukihiro Kanazawa Medical University, Division of Emergency Medicine, Associate Professor, 救急医学講座, 助教授 (90211680)
ISHIYAMA Yuji Hokkaido University, School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (70241362)
KAGAMI Hiroshi Hokkaido University, School of Engineering, Professor (70016476)
AOKI Noriaki University of Texas, School of Health Information Sciences, Associate Professor
SMITH Jack W. University of Texas, Health Science Center, Associate Dean
DUNN Kim University of Texas, Health Science Center, Associate Professor
|Project Period (FY)
2002 – 2004
Completed(Fiscal Year 2004)
|Budget Amount *help
¥8,300,000 (Direct Cost : ¥8,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2004 : ¥2,400,000 (Direct Cost : ¥2,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2003 : ¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost : ¥2,800,000)
Fiscal Year 2002 : ¥3,100,000 (Direct Cost : ¥3,100,000)
|Keywords||Human casualty / Building damage pattern / Disaster medicine / Simulation / Hyogoken-Nanbu earthauake / Bam, Iran, earthquake / Geographical Information System / Detabase / イベントツリー解析|
To uncover the mechanism of human injury in buildings damaged by devastating earthquakes is indispensable to the fundamental resolution for prevention of the occurrence of deceased. However, conventional studies formulate the death toll estimation directly from the number of building collapses. Such ridiculous situation would be caused by the fact that there has been no contact in the research field between building structural engineers and disaster medical researchers, and they have been advancing the research under the independent organization each other.
(2)Objectives of the project
In order to interdisciplinary discuss the latest results of the research of the earthquake engineering and the disaster medicine. By the application of regression analysis and some statistical work to the database the study secondly tries to propose the death toll estimation model that runs to concrete measures for the human damage reduction. In this project treats the 2004 Barn Earth
quake in Iran as an earthquake with masonry structure collapse, the 1999 Kocaeri Earthquake in Turkey as an earthquake with RC structure collapse, and the 1995 Kobe Earthquake in Japan as an earthquake with wooden structure collapse.
(3)Implementation of the project
Kickoff meeting :
To discuss the research plan for 3 years with the researchers in the engineering field and the medical field at the first stage, an interdisciplinary symposium for research exchange was executed by the Japan-U.S.cooperation at the Center for Health Science, the University of Texas. The symposium was held by opening to the public, and the state of the symposium was simultaneously dlelivered to the world through the Internet Web.
Construction of database :
Based on the discussion in the symposium, the definition of building damage was redefined from the viewpoint of death occurrence in seismic damage building for the purpose of database construction for clarifying the death occurrence mechanism. The new definition was visualized as a pattern chart of building damage. Following the definition, we rebuilt the database from the information about dead and damage to building in the Kocaeri Earthquake and the Kobe Earthquake. In addiiton, we consolidated the database by adding the concerning data which various research organizations had collected.
Modeling death toll estimation and its application :
We elucidated the death causalities by means of event tree analysis for the Kobe Earthquake's database. On the basis of the result, a causal model following the process to death was proposed. That is to say, the death toll estimation model was constructed in multivariate regression model, in which the structural damage pattern of building can be specified as the result for given earthquake ground motion severities at the first step, the volumetric loss of building can be counted by the spatial damage index at the second step, and then the survival rate of inhabitants entrapped in collapsed building can be calculated at the final step. This model is not only accurate in comparison with the conventional simple models, that the collapse of building regulates the number of killed people, but also applicable to various type of buildings in foreign countries by introducing the index of volumetric loss. In addition, this model can help the decision-making for the optimal triage for search and rescue (SAR) activities as a post countermeasure ; because the survival potential of trapped people in collapsed building is affected strongly by the collapsed pattern of building, and the model can provide the information about the collapsed pattern. Less