| Project/Area Number |
15330050
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
FUJIMASA Iwao National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Graduate School of Policy Studies, Research Fellow, 政策研究科, リサーチフェロー (30010028)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MATSUTANI Akihiko National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Graduate School of Policy Studies, Professor, 政策研究科, 教授 (00303090)
松浦 弘幸 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究プロジェクトセンター, 助教授 (30262116)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2006
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥14,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥2,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥3,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥4,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥3,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000)
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| Keywords | System Engineering / Modeling / Policy Studies / Population Projection / Geographical Information System / Macroeconomics / Society Structure Dynamics / Regional policy / コンピュータネットワーク / 社会構造推計 / 区市町村人口推計 / 世界人口推計 / 地理情報システム / 選挙権者の人口構造 / データベース / 社会機能推計 / システムダイナミックス / 市町村社会構造 / 人口減少 / 社会構造推計データベース |
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| Research Abstract |
Fundamental society structure projection models of all Japan cities had been developed until the end of 2003, using Society Structure Projection Model 2000.
Analyzing the projection data, we improved a population projection mode, which was applicable in general purpose, and projected future population structure of all cities and villages of Japan. The results had been opened to administrators and researchers on Web: http;//www3.grips.ac.jp/ depopulation.
A macroeconomic projection model for estimating Japan national income had been developed by Matsutani A. He added restriction of investment to Harrod and Domer model and reported that the national income of Japan would become maximum in 2012 and the amount of national income per capita in 2000 would maintain until 2030.
We developed a function of attractiveness of population to a city and classified city types into nine categories. The function was installed in the Society Structure Projection Model.
Projected data of all cities, towns and villages were converted into quantum color using the Geographically Related Information Printing System and maps of To-Do-Fu-Ken structure were painted and published in 2004.
Essential problems of depopulation society have been discussed in many councils, symposia and workshops of national and regional governments related to our issues that were including economy, labor force, welfare, health care and pension, industries including agriculture, regional development, foreign workforce, and etc. Those research results were presented on the Web instead of research papers from the standpoint of techno-democracy.
Basic part of Society Structure Projection Engine 2005 has been developed improving the 2000 model and applying 2005 census and To-Do-Fu-Ken population projections have been announced in the end of 2006 fiscal year.
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