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A quantitative analysis of the tax and social security systems in an aging Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15530215
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionOKAYAMA UNIVERSITY

Principal Investigator

OKAMOTO Akira  Okayama University, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Associate Professor, 大学院社会文化科学研究科, 助教授 (10294399)

Project Period (FY) 2003 – 2006
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Keywordsaging population / tax reform / public pension reform / life-cycle general equilibrium model / simulation analysis / benefit and burden / progressive expenditure tax / national burden rate / スウェーデン型年金制度 / 所得再分配 / 公的年金制度 / 相続税
Research Abstract

With a population that is rapidly aging, Japan faces serious public finance problems, particularly when it comes to tax and social security issues. The structural reforms are urgently needed to accommodate the impending demographic change. We look at the Japanese tax and social security systems through a life-cycle general equilibrium simulation model. We aim to establish guidelines for fiscal reform in Japan's graying society and use such advanced modeling techniques to permit the calculation of the effects of alternative tax policies on capital accumulation and economic welfare.
The following three main conclusions have been drawn.
1. The simulation results show that a progressive expenditure tax stimulates much more capital accumulation than a progressive labor income tax. Thus, this new tax regime may hold the key to overcoming the large welfare loss Japan faces as its society ages under the current tax system. We also examined a desirable tax combination along the lines of the current Japanese tax and social security systems. The results suggest that an increase in the rate of tax on consumption and a decrease in the rate of tax on interest income may be a desirable tax combination under conditions of revenue neutrality.
2. We explored a desirable public pension system in an aging Japan. The simulation results show that, if we consider a public pension program with the same scale as the current Japanese program, the highest level of social welfare is attained when a public pension system consists of only a basic pension and is financed by a consumption tax.
3. We investigated an optimal rate of the national burden in an aging Japan. The simulation results suggest that an optimal rate for the national burden would rise as Japan ages, and may exceed 50% during a period of rapid aging of its population.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2006 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report Summary
  • 2005 Annual Research Report
  • 2004 Annual Research Report
  • 2003 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (38 results)

All 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Other

All Journal Article (31 results) Book (5 results) Publications (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Public Pension Reform in Japan : Is the Swedish Pension System Useful?2007

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Hosei Institute on Aging, Discussion Paper 20

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan2007

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      International Economic Journal 21 (1)

      Pages: 91-114

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Public Pension Reform in Japan : Is the Swedish Pension System Useful?2007

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Hosei Institute on Aging, Discussion Paper No. 20

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] An Empirical Analysis on the Japanese Economy2007

    • Author(s)
      Tachibanaki T.
    • Journal Title

      Toyo Keizai Inc. 328

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Government Size and the Social Security System2007

    • Author(s)
      Tachibanaki T.
    • Journal Title

      University of Tokyo Press (in press)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan2007

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      International Economic Journal 21(1)

      Pages: 91-114

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Public Pension Reform in Japan : Is the Swedish Pension System Useful?2007

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Hosei Institute on Aging, Discussion Papers 20

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] An Optimal Rate of the National Burden in an Aging Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Kyoto Economic Review 75 (1)

      Pages: 13-34

    • NAID

      120000885969

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 少子高齢化と国民負担率2006

    • Author(s)
      岡本 章
    • Journal Title

      独立行政法人経済産業研究所,ディスカッションペーパー 06-J-056

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 社会保障制度における望ましい財源調達手段2006

    • Author(s)
      橘木俊詔
    • Journal Title

      独立行政法人経済産業研究所,ディスカッションペーパー 06-J-057

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] 公共支出の受益と国民負担に関する意識調査と計量分析2006

    • Author(s)
      橘木俊詔
    • Journal Title

      独立行政法人経済産業研究所,ディスカッションペーパー 06-J-058

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      International Economic Journal 21 (1)

      Pages: 91-114

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] An Optimal Rate of the National Burden in an Aging Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Kyoto Economic Review 75 (1)

      Pages: 13-34

    • NAID

      120000885969

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Aging Japan and the National Burden Rate2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-056

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Desirable Financial Methods for the Social Security System2006

    • Author(s)
      Tachibanaki T
    • Journal Title

      RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-057

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] A Questionnaire Survey on the Benefit of Public Expenditures and the National Burden, and an Econometric Analysis2006

    • Author(s)
      Tachibanaki T
    • Journal Title

      RIETI Discussion Paper Series 06-J-058

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] An Optimal Rate of the National Burden in an Aging Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Kyoto Economic Review 75(1)

      Pages: 13-34

    • NAID

      120000885969

    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan2006

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      International Economic Journal (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Progressive Expenditure Taxation in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Policy Modeling 27 (3)

      Pages: 309-325

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Economic Systems Research 17 (2)

      Pages: 163-185

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Introduction of Progressive Expenditure Taxation to Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Okayama Economic Review 36 (4)

      Pages: 193-201

    • NAID

      120002576165

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Progressive Expenditure Taxation in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Policy Modeling 27 (3)

      Pages: 309-325

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Economic Systems Research 17 (2)

      Pages: 163-185

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Introduction of Progressive Expenditure Taxation to Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Okayama Economic Review 36 (4)

      Pages: 193-201

    • NAID

      120002576165

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Progressive Expenditure Taxation in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Policy Modeling 27(3)

      Pages: 309-325

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Economic Systems Research 17(2)

      Pages: 163-185

    • Related Report
      2005 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Progressive Expenditure Taxation in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Policy Modeling 27(印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Economic Systems Research 17(印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Introduction of Progressive Expenditure Taxation to Japan2005

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Journal Title

      Okayama Economic Review 36(4)

      Pages: 193-201

    • NAID

      120002576165

    • Related Report
      2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Tax Policy for Aging Societies : Lessons from Japan2004

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Springer 167

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Journal Article] Tax and Social Security Reforms in an Aging Japan2003

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto A.
    • Journal Title

      Okayama University Economic Research Series No. 29

      Pages: 221-221

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 日本経済の実証分析 : 失われた10年を乗り越えて2007

    • Author(s)
      橘木俊詔
    • Total Pages
      328
    • Publisher
      東洋経済新報社
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report 2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 政府の大きさと社会保醐度 : 国民の受益・負担からみた分析と提言2007

    • Author(s)
      橘木俊詔
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会(印刷中)
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Book] 政府の大きさと社会保障 : 国民の受益・負担と厚生2007

    • Author(s)
      橘木俊詔
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2006 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Tax Policy for Aging Societies : Lessons from Japan2004

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Total Pages
      167
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary 2004 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Tax and Social Security Reforms in an Aging Japan2003

    • Author(s)
      Okamoto, Akira
    • Total Pages
      221
    • Publisher
      Okayama University Economic Research Series No. 29
    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
    • Related Report
      2006 Final Research Report Summary
  • [Publications] Okamoto, Akira: "Simulating Progressive Expenditure Taxation in Aging Japan"Journal of Policy Modeling (Journal of Policy Models). (in press).

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report
  • [Publications] Okamoto, Akira: "Tax and Social Security Reforms in an Aging Japan"Okayama University Economic Research Series No.29. 221 (2003)

    • Related Report
      2003 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2003-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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