Construction of Precipitation Forecasting Model in Asia-Pacific Region using Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices
| Project/Area Number |
15600003
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
水循環システム
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| Research Institution | TOKYO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY (2004-2005)
Kyushu University (2003) |
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Principal Investigator |
KAWAMURA Akira Tokyo Metropolitan University, Faculty of Urban Environmental Sciences, Professor, 都市環境学部, 教授 (10177735)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
JINNO Kenji Kyushu University, Institute of Environmental Systems, Professor, 大学院・工学研究院, 教授 (80038025)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2005
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,400,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2003: ¥1,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000)
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| Keywords | Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices / Correlation Analysis / Southern Oscillation / Monthly Precipation / Chaos / Fukuoka / Korea / Forecasting Model / PDOI / NPI / ニューラルネットワーク / 非線形 / 河川流出 / 国際研究者交流(オーストラリア,ニュージーランド) / カテゴリー分類 |
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| Research Abstract |
First, simple but robust approaches were used to reveal the quantitative and statistically significant influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on monthly precipitation at five stations distributed over South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. The monthly precipitation data were transformed into non-exceedence probability time series. SOI is classified into five categories. The spatial distribution of ENSO influence is obtained from the correlation results. The monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan is generally influenced by La Nina events. The influence has a four-month lag time in the southern coastal area, and a five-month lag for the middle to northern area of South Korea.
Second, the cross-correlations between four indices of SOI, PDOI, NPI, NAOI and normally standardized monthly precipitation in Fukuoka are investigated in detail. For the original time series, the correlations between those indices and precipitation are almost zero for any lag times. However, qui
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te strong statistically significant correlations are obtained when using those indices data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, very high correlation coefficients are obtained between precipitation and SOI, NPI with some lag times under some categories.
Third, a methodology to investigate joint phase space characteristics of SOI and the standardized temperature and precipitation data in Fukuoka was studied byusing ideas from dynamical systems theory. From the results, it can thus be said that the joint relationships between the three investigated variables are complex with no obvious linear relationships. The methodology may serve as a basis for deterministic dynamics of jointly interrelated variables.
Further, the medium term forecasting of August rainfall in Fukuoka city was conducted. As the candidate predictors, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and three atmospheric-oceanic indices are selected. It was found that a model with the NPI and selected SST as inputs performed reasonably well. Less
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(42 results)
