Measurement and Analysis of Price Index and Consumption Behavior Based on Point of Sale Data
| Project/Area Number |
15H01945
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
Abe Naohito 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (30323893)
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| Research Collaborator |
Inakura Noriko
Ueno Yuko
Tonogi Akiyuki
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥43,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥33,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥10,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥10,530,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,430,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥9,620,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,220,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥9,620,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,220,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥13,910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,210,000)
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| Keywords | 家計消費 / 物価 / インフレーション / 将来予測 / 合理的期待 / スキャナーデータ / インフレ期待 / 計測誤差 / 合理性 / POSデータ / 物価指数 / 家庭内在庫 / 家計内在庫 / 購買行動 / 消費者物価指数 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study analyzed consumption and prices based on scanner data and investigated inflation expectation formation based on an original micro survey. We found that after the change in the consumption tax rate in 2014, young people decreased their nominal expenditures more than old, while young people faced higher price levels, which decreased their real expenditure. The difference between the old and young population can be explained by the differences in their purchasing behaviors in convenience stores. We also found that the inflation expectation by Japanese households is consistent with the rational expectation hypothesis with limited information. Our experiments conducted through websites revealed that by providing households with "useful" information, their inflation expectations are revised, as predicted by the information theory.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
2014年に行われた消費税率改定直後、日本の家計消費は大きく落ち込んだ。その落ち込み方や家計が購入する商品の物価は家計属性により異なっている。本研究により、家計消費の動きを分析する際には、どの業態で購入しているかが重要な要素となっており、平均単価の高いコンビニエンスストアで日々どの程度購入しているかを考察しないと、誤った解釈をしかねないことが判明した。また、日本家計のインフレ期待は粘着的であると広く議論されているが、適切な情報を与えることによりインフレ期待は瞬時に変化し、その変化のパターンは粘着的ではなく、むしろ合理的期待と整合的であることが本研究により明らかとなった。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(19 results)
