Understanding of tsunami events due to great earthquakes occurred in Japan Sea and their tsunami forecast

• Project/Area Number: 15H05133
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 海外学術
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Tanioka Yuichiro 北海道大学, 理学研究院, 教授 (40354526)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 高清水 康博 新潟大学, 人文社会科学系, 准教授 (10446370) ; 西村 裕一 北海道大学, 理学研究院, 准教授 (20208226) ; 菅原 大助 ふじのくに地球環境史ミュージアム, 学芸課, 准教授 (50436078)
• Research Collaborator: Ioki Kei ; Yamanaka Yusuke ; Razjigaeva Nadezhda ; Ganzey Larisa ; Kaistrenko Victor
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥15,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,660,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
• Keywords: 日本海の巨大津波 / ロシア沿海州での津波堆積物 / 津波予測 / 津波数値計算 / 津波堆積物 / 沿海州バレンチン湾 / 日本海中部地震 / 日本海 / 日本海の巨大地震

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We conducted tsunami deposit surveys at various locations in Primorsky, identified tsunami events, and estimated the age of the events. For tsunamis around the 12th century, a fault model that can explain tsunami deposits on the coast of Hokkaido was estimated by using the tsunami numerical simulation. The total fault length was estimated to be 109 km, and a large slip of 18m was estimated at a 50 km fault on the north side. This estimate is much larger than the previous estimate of 6m. It has become clear that the fault model of the 12-century earthquake is located just between the fault model of the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki earthquake and the fault model of the 1983 Japan Sea earthquake. In addition, the tsunami caused by the volcanic sector collapse due to the eruption of the Oshima-Oshima volcano in 1741 is reproduced by the numerical simulation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究ではロシア沿海州沿岸にて津波堆積物調査を実施し，日本海で発生した津波イベントを認定し、日本海で発生した大津波の発生履歴を明らかにしたことの学術的意義は大きい。また、12世紀にイベントが1983年と1993年の地震震源域の間で発生していたことを突き止めた成果は将来の地震調査推進本部での地震長期予測に資する。さらに、本研究による日本海側で発生してきた巨大地震・津波に関する研究成果が、本地域での将来の最大津波想定やハザードマップ策定に反映されることが期待される。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー極東支部 太平洋物理学研究所(ロシア連邦)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー極東支部太平洋物理学研究所(ロシア連邦)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー極東支部太平洋物理学研究所(ロシア連邦)
• [Journal Article] Numerical Simulation of the Landslide and Tsunami Due to the 1741 Oshima‐Oshima Eruption in Hokkaido, Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Ioki Kei、Tanioka Yuichiro、Yanagisawa Hideaki、Kawakami Gentaro
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Volume: 124 Issue: 2 Pages: 1991-2002
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018jb016166
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Deposits of the 1983 and 1993 tsunamis on the coast of Primorye (2017)
  • Author(s): Ganzey L. A.、Razjigaeva N. G.、Nishimura Yu.、Grebennikova T. A.、Gorbunov A. O.、Kaistrenko V. M.、Naumov Yu. A.、Lebedev I. I.
  • Journal Title: Oceanology Volume: 57 Issue: 4 Pages: 568-579
  • DOI: 10.1134/s0001437017040075
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimating the Topography Before Volcanic Sector Collapses Using Tsunami Survey Data and Numerical Simulations (2017)
  • Author(s): Yamanaka Yusuke、Tanioka Yuichiro
  • Journal Title: Pure and Applied Geophysics Volume: 174 Issue: 8 Pages: 3275-3291
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00024-017-1589-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Deposits of historical and paleotsunamis on the coast of eastern Primorye (2015)
  • Author(s): Ganzey, L. A., Razhigaeva, N. G., Nishimura Y., Grebennikova T. A., Kaistrenko V. M., Gorbunov A. O., Arslanov, Kh. A., Chernov, S. B., and Naumov, Yu. A.
  • Journal Title: Russian Journal of Pacific Geology Volume: 9 Pages: 64-79
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 歴史記録や津波堆積物から探る超巨大地震の発生様式 (2018)
  • Author(s): 谷岡勇市郎
  • Organizer: 応用地質学会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Fault Model Estimation of the 12th Century Southwestern Hokkaido Earthquake Using Tsunami Deposits Data (2018)
  • Author(s): Kei IOKI, Yuichiro TANIOKA, Gentaro KAWAKAMI, Yoshihiro KASE, Kenji NISHINA3 Wataru HIROSE
  • Organizer: AOGS
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ロシア沿海州における1993年北海道南西沖地震津波の面的分布 (2017)
  • Author(s): 西村 裕一・Nadezhda Razjigaeva・Larisa Ganzey・菅原 大助・高清水 康博・Ilya Lebedev・Ruslan Borisov
  • Organizer: JpGU連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県、千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2017-05-20
• [Presentation] ロシア沿海州における津波の挙動と堆積物形成の数値解析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 菅原 大助・西村 裕一・高清水 康博・Nadezhda Razjigaeva・Larisa Ganzey・Ilya Lebedev・Ruslan Borisov
  • Organizer: JpGU連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県、千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2017-05-20
• [Presentation] ロシア沿海州における1993年北海道南西沖地震津波の面的分布 (2017)
  • Author(s): 西村裕一・N. Razjigaeva・L. Ganzey・菅原大助・高清水康博・I. Labedev・R. Borisov
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU 連合大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ロシア沿海州における津波の挙動と堆積物形成の数値計算 (2017)
  • Author(s): 菅原大助・西村裕一・・高清水康博・N. Razjigaeva・L. Ganzey・I. Labedev・R. Borisov
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU 連合大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 1741年渡島大島での山体崩壊と津波遡上域の数値シミュレーションによる再現 (2017)
  • Author(s): 伊尾木 圭衣・柳澤 英明・谷岡 勇市郎・川上 源太郎・加瀬 善洋・仁科 健二・廣瀬 亘・石丸 聡
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU 連合大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimating topography before the volcanic sector collapses using tsunami survey data with numerical simulations (2017)
  • Author(s): 山中悠資・谷岡勇市郎
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU 連合大会
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Numerical simulations of the historical tsunamis generated by large sector collapses in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Yamanaka, Y., and Y. Tanioka
  • Organizer: ITS 2017, Indonesia
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 津波堆積物を用いた12世紀北海道南西沖地震の断層モデル構築 (2017)
  • Author(s): 伊尾木 圭衣・谷岡 勇市郎・川上 源太郎・加瀬 善洋・仁科 健二・廣瀬 亘
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2017年秋季大会
• [Presentation] Simulation of landslide and tsunami of the 1741 Oshima-Oshima eruption in Hokkaido, Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Kei Iok, H. Yanagisawa, Y. Tanioka, G. Kawakami, Y. Kase, K. Nishina, W. Hirose4 and S. Ishimaru
  • Organizer: 2017 AGU fall meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 1741年渡島大島山体崩壊に伴う津波 (2016)
  • Author(s): 伊尾木圭衣・谷岡勇市郎・川上源太郎・仁科建二・廣瀬亘・石丸聡・柳澤英明
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋国際会議場（愛知県、名古屋市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-05
• [Presentation] ロシア沿海州に残された古津波の痕跡 (2015)
  • Author(s): 西村裕一・Razhigaeva, N. G.・Ganzey, L. A.・Grebennikova T. A.・Kaistrenko V. M.・Arslanov, Kh. A.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 神戸国際会議場（兵庫県・神戸市）
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-26
• [Presentation] Geological records of tsunami on the eastern Primorye coast (2015)
  • Author(s): Nishimura Y., Ganzey L.A., Razjigaeva N,G., Kaistrenko V.M., Grebennikova T.A., Gorbunov A.O.
  • Organizer: All-Russian Conference "Geodynamic processes and natural hazards. Experience of Neftegorsk”
  • Place of Presentation: Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (ロシア)
  • Year and Date: 2015-05-26
  • Int'l Joint Research