Oil Prices and the Japanese Economy: From the Perspective of the Current Account and Export-Import Industries

Research Project

Project/Area Number	15H06585
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	Economic policy
Research Institution	Keio University
Principal Investigator	WADA Tatsuma 慶應義塾大学, 総合政策学部(藤沢), 准教授 (20756580)
Project Period (FY)	2015-08-28 – 2017-03-31
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help	¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000) Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000) Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords	原油価格 / 鉱工業生産指数 / 経常収支 / VARモデル / 非線形モデル / 経済政策 / 非線形多変量モデル / 衝撃応答関数
Outline of Final Research Achievements	I utilize the industrial production indices (IPs) and the real oil price to uncover the relationship between those two variables. Also, the effect of oil price changes on the current account balance. In particular, I allow for the so-called asymmetry in response, i.e., the responses of IPs to the change in the real oil price is asymmetry. It is then found that almost no industry, out of 149, reveals asymmetry.