Research on the prediction of uncertain events: From the "hoist a flag" phenomenon
| Project/Area Number |
15K04049
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social psychology
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| Research Institution | Kobe Yamate University |
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Principal Investigator |
Murakami Koshi 神戸山手大学, 現代社会学部, 准教授 (00454778)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
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| Keywords | 言霊 / フラグ / 予測 / ギャンブル / 対人ネットワーク |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this research is to examine what kinds of behaviors are promoted or avoided when predicting uncertain events, and the process by which such actions affect later behaviors, from both the perspective of general events and gambling by making predictions, focusing on the recognition of causality based on the assumption of the prediction "hoist a flag" and the result. In these research, it was shown that there is a basic emphasis on avoiding negative outcomes, and that the behavior in forecasting, such as increasing awareness of causality or promoting bets in gambling, affects later actions.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究で示された結果で強調されるのは、まず不確実事象を予測する際に行われる行為は、因果関係を仮定しているため、その後の行動に対するコミットメントを強めるということである。特にネガティブな結果に対して、他者の関与に責任を帰す傾向はスケープゴートのメカニズムに結び付くものである。また予測がギャンブルでの賭けを促進する傾向にあるとすれば、予測の段階からギャンブル依存を考慮する必要性を示唆する知見として貢献するものと考えられる。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(10 results)
