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Statistical methods to develop and evaluate risk prediction models

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K15956
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionNational Cancer Center Japan

Principal Investigator

Kuchiba Aya  国立研究開発法人国立がん研究センター, 研究支援センター, 室長 (40510699)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords予測モデル / がん罹患 / Calibration / Discrimination / 疫学研究 / がん発症 / 絶対リスク / calibration / discrimination / リスク因子の効果の推定 / リスクの推定
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Recent cancer epidemiology has provided much evidence for cancer risk factors, including environmental, lifestyle and genetic factors. Prediction model to provide the risk of cancer based on the established risk factors, would contribute to developing risk-based prevention or health management strategies.
In the research project, the methods to estimate prediction ability of the prediction models has been examined and applied to real epidemiology studies, in particular for data from often-used study designs with biomarker data. The statistical methods for assessing etiologic heterogeneity of a cancer have been developed and applied to the cohort study data as a relevant topic. In addition, new index to evaluate prediction ability for outcome with more than two categories has been proposed and the characteristics of this index have been examined by simulation studies.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Decomposition of the population attributable fraction for two exposures2018

    • Author(s)
      Taguri M, Kuchiba A.
    • Journal Title

      Annals of Epidemiology

      Volume: 28 Issue: 5 Pages: 331

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.02.012

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration and subsequent risk of total and site specific cancers in Japanese population: Large case-cohort study within Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study cohort2018

    • Author(s)
      Budhathoki Sanjeev、Hidaka Akihisa、Yamaji Taiki、Sawada Norie、Tanaka-Mizuno Sachiko、Kuchiba Aya、Charvat Hadrien、Goto Atsushi、Kojima Satoshi、Sudo Natsuki、Shimazu Taichi、Sasazuki Shizuka、Inoue Manami、Tsugane Shoichiro、Iwasaki Motoki
    • Journal Title

      BMJ

      Volume: 360 Pages: k671-k671

    • DOI

      10.1136/bmj.k671

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Inclusion of a genetic risk score into a validated risk prediction model for colorectal cancer in Japanese men improves performance2017

    • Author(s)
      Iwasaki Motoki、Tanaka-Mizuno Sachiko、Kuchiba Aya、Yamaji Taiki、Sawada Norie、Goto Atsushi、Shimazu Taichi、Sasazuki Shizuka、Wang Hansong、Marchand Lo?c Le、Tsugane Shoichiro
    • Journal Title

      Cancer Prevention Research

      Volume: 10 Issue: 9 Pages: 535

    • DOI

      10.1158/1940-6207.capr-17-0141

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A Prospective Study of Smoking and Risk of Synchronous Colorectal Cancers2017

    • Author(s)
      Drew DA, Nishihara R, Lochhead P, Kuchiba A, Qian ZR, Mima K, Nosho K, Wu K, Wang M, Giovannucci E, Fuchs CS, Chan AT, Ogino S
    • Journal Title

      American Journal of Gastroenterology

      Volume: 112 Issue: 3 Pages: 493

    • DOI

      10.1038/ajg.2016.589

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Statistical methods for studying disease subtype heterogeneity2016

    • Author(s)
      Wang, M., Spiegelman, D., Kuchiba, A., Lochhead, P., Kim, S., Chan, A.T., Poole, E.M., Tamimi, R., Tworoger, S.S., Giovannucci, E., Rosner, B., Ogino, S
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in medicine

      Volume: 35 Issue: 5 Pages: 782

    • DOI

      10.1002/sim.6793

    • URL

      https://localhost/en/publications/6bbaec07-a63b-40ad-97d3-e25e5f5a635b

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A meta-regression method for studying etiological heterogeneity across disease subtypes classified by multiple biomarkers2015

    • Author(s)
      Wang, M., Kuchiba, A., Ogino, S.
    • Journal Title

      American journal of epidemiology

      Volume: 182 Issue: 3 Pages: 263

    • DOI

      10.1093/aje/kwv040

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Discrimination Index for Multi-Category Outcome2018

    • Author(s)
      Kuchiba Aya、Sakamaki Kentaro
    • Organizer
      ENAR 2018 Spring Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Efficiency Consideration of the Etiological Heterogeneity Evaluation in Case-Case and Case-Control Studies2017

    • Author(s)
      Wang M*, Kuchiba A*, Gao R
    • Organizer
      ENAR Spring Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Washington, D.C., USA
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-12
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Statistical Methods for Studying Disease Etiologic Heterogeneity2016

    • Author(s)
      Wang M, Spiegelman D, Kuchiba A, Rosner B, Ogino S
    • Organizer
      2016 Epidemiology Congress of the Americas
    • Place of Presentation
      Miami, Florida, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-21
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A prospective study of smoking habit and risk of synchronous colorectal cancers2016

    • Author(s)
      Drew DA, Nishihara R, Lochhead P, Kuchiba A, Qian ZR, Mima K, Nosho K, Wu K, Wang M, Spiegelman D, Giovannucci EL, Fuchs CS, Ogino S, Chan AT
    • Organizer
      AACR Annual Meeting 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-16
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] (Book Chapter) Evaluation of Cancer Risk in Epidemiologic Studies with Genetic and Molecular Data. In Matsui, S. and Crowley, J. (Eds.), Frontiers of Biostatistical Methods and Applications in Clinical Oncology2017

    • Author(s)
      Kuchiba Aya
    • Publisher
      Springer Singapore
    • ISBN
      9789811001246
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2022-06-07  

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