Global food security under extreme climate

• Project/Area Number: 15K16164
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Environmental policy and social systems
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Hasegawa Tomoko 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 社会環境システム研究センター, 研究員 (60615524)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 極端現象 / 栄養不足 / 食料消費 / 経済影響 / 気候変化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Future climate variability is a concern for food security. Although the uncertainty of food security under the mean climate state has been quantified in numerous studies, variability has rarely been taken into account. We clarified how projections of the risk of hunger are affected by potential changes in crop yields under climate variability and other major uncertainties expected to occur by the middle of this century. The results suggest that the magnitude of uncertainty increases over time regardless of socioeconomic developments. The results also suggest that better food storage or food aid systems are required in affected countries so that they can tolerate the worst case.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model (2017)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Ito A., Takahashi K., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Science of The Total Environment Volume: 580 Pages: 787-796
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.025
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Herran, D. S., Dai, H.,.Hijioka, Y., Kainuma, M.
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 268-283
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways (2017)
  • Author(s): Popp A., Calvin K., Fujimori S., Havlik P., , , Hasegawa T. (other thirteen authors)
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 331-345
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017)
  • Author(s): Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B., Fujimori, S., , , Hasegawa, T. (other thirty-nine authors)
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 153-168
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2017)
  • Author(s): Rao, S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F., Bouwman, L., . . . Hasegawa. T. (other twenty authors)
  • Journal Title: Global Environmental Change Volume: 42 Pages: 346-358
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections (2017)
  • Author(s): Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P.H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Hasegawa, T. (other thirty-one authors)
  • Journal Title: Global Change Biology Volume: 23 Issue: 2 Pages: 767-781
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments (2017)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Abe M., Kinoshita T., Hasegawa T., Kawase H., Kushida K., Masui T., Oka K., Shiogama H., Takahashi K., Tatebe H. , Yoshikawa M.
  • Journal Title: PLOS ONE Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: e0169733-e0169733
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169733
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Land-Based Mitigation Strategies under the Mid-Term Carbon Reduction Targets in Indonesia (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Boer R., Immanuel G.S., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Sustainability Volume: 8 Issue: 12 Pages: 1283-1294
  • DOI: 10.3390/su8121283
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Yokohata T., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Climatic Change Volume: in press Issue: 2 Pages: 189-202
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Quantifying the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling systems under varying climatic scenarios (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Chan P., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Palgrave Communications Volume: in press Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1057/palcomms.2016.13
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Introducing detailed land-based mitigation measures into a computable general equilibrium model (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Masui T., Matsuoka Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Cleaner Production Volume: 113 Pages: 233-242
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.093
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger (2015)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S, Shin Y, Tanaka A, Takahashi K, Masui T.
  • Journal Title: Environmental science & technology Volume: 49 (12) Issue: 12 Pages: 7245-7253
  • DOI: 10.1021/es5051748
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 気候変化と低栄養 (2015)
  • Author(s): 長谷川知子
  • Journal Title: 環境技術 Volume: 44 (12) Pages: 648-654
• [Journal Article] An assessment of GHG emissions and mitigation potential from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use in Cambodia (2015)
  • Author(s): Hak M., Hasegawa T., Matsuoka Y.
  • Journal Title: J.Global Environ.Eng. Volume: 71(5) Pages: 165-176
  • NAID: 130005128892
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The future role of agriculture and land use change for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh (2015)
  • Author(s): Jilani T, Hasegawa T., Matsuoka Y.
  • Journal Title: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Volume: 20 (8) Issue: 8 Pages: 1289-304
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9545-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessment of greenhouse gas emission pathways by considering a possible climate sensitivity range under different socio-economic scenarios (2015)
  • Author(s): Su X., Takahashi K., Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., Emori S., Hijioka Y., Masui T.
  • Journal Title: J.Global Environ.Eng. Volume: 71 (5) Pages: 205-216
  • NAID: 130005128897
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Global food insecurity under climate volatility (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoko Hasegawa, Gen Sakurai, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui
  • Organizer: The Ninth Annual Meeting of the IAMC 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel Beijing（中国、北京）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Will International Emissions Trading Help Achieve the Objectives of the Paris Agreement?. (2016)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Kubota I., Dai H., Takahashi K., Hasegawa T., Liu J., Hijioka Y., Masui T., Takimi M.
  • Organizer: The Ninth Annual Meeting of the IAMC 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel Beijing（中国、北京）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Economic implications of limiting global temperature at 1.5 °C: the case of building energy use (2016)
  • Author(s): Park C., Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Takakura J., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Masui T
  • Organizer: The Ninth Annual Meeting of the IAMC 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel Beijing（中国、北京）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Economic cost of workplace heatstroke prevention by following recommended work/rest cycles (2016)
  • Author(s): Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Hasegawa T., Honda Y., Masui T.
  • Organizer: The Ninth Annual Meeting of the IAMC 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel Beijing（中国、北京）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Food security: multi-model comparison preliminary analysis. AgMIP economic modeling group meeting (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Ochi Y.
  • Organizer: AgMIP economic modeling group meeting
  • Place of Presentation: 国立環境研究所（つくば）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-29
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Food security: multi‐model comparison preliminary analysis (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Ochi Y.
  • Organizer: AgMIP6 Global workshop
  • Place of Presentation: Montpellier SupAgro Headquarters（フランス、モンペリエ）
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-28
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Shin Y., Tanaka A., Takahashi K., Masui T.
  • Organizer: CESM 2016 Winter Working Group Meetings
  • Place of Presentation: アメリカ大気研究センター（アメリカ合衆国、ボルダー）
  • Year and Date: 2016-02-08
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 気候緩和策による食料安全保障への影響分析 (2016)
  • Author(s): 長谷川知子, 藤森真一郎, 高橋潔, 増井利彦
  • Organizer: 第32回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス
  • Place of Presentation: 砂防会館（東京、千代田区）
  • Year and Date: 2016-02-02
• [Presentation] Economic impact assessment of climate change impacts on human health using AIM/CGE: undernourishment and labor productivity. (2016)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Masui T., Hijioka Y., Honda Y.
  • Organizer: Assessment of human health impacts from climate change steps forward
  • Place of Presentation: Joint Research Centre (スペイン、セビリア)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] EMF33 bioenergy supply scenario CGE implementation issues: FARM and AIM approaches (2015)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Ron Sands, Hasegawa T.
  • Organizer: EMF 33 meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Seminaris SeeHotel（ドイツ、ポツダム）
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-18
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Economic implications of climate change on human health through undernourishment (2015)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Yokohata T., Masui T.
  • Organizer: IAMC meeting 2015
  • Place of Presentation: Seminaris SeeHotel （ドイツ、ポツダム）
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Economic consequences of climate-induced changes in the energy demand for heating and cooling (2015)
  • Author(s): Park C., Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Masui T.
  • Organizer: IAMC meeting 2015
  • Place of Presentation: Seminaris SeeHotel （ドイツ、ポツダム）
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] AIMによる新社会経済シナリオSSPの定量化とそのシナリオの特徴 (2015)
  • Author(s): 藤森真一郎, 長谷川知子, 増井利彦, 高橋潔, シィルバエランディエゴ, 戴瀚程, 肱岡靖明, 甲斐沼美紀子
  • Organizer: 第43回研究論文発表会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学（北海道、札幌）
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-17
• [Presentation] An assessment of GHG emissions and mitigation potential from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use in Cambodia (2015)
  • Author(s): ハク マオ, 長谷川知子, 松岡 譲
  • Organizer: 土木学会第23回地球環境シンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学（北海道、札幌）
  • Year and Date: 2015-09-02
• [Presentation] Introducing detailed land-based mitigation technologies into a CGE model (2015)
  • Author(s): Hasegawa T., Fujimori S., Masui T., Matsuoka Y
  • Organizer: The 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne Convention Centre （オーストラリア、メルボルン）
  • Year and Date: 2015-06-17
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: CET vs. logit functions (2015)
  • Author(s): Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., Masui T., Takahashi K.
  • Organizer: The 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne Convention Centre （オーストラリア、メルボルン）
  • Year and Date: 2015-06-17
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] The role of international trade under a changing climate: Insights from global economic modelling. In: Elbehr A.eds., Climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade (2015)
  • Author(s): Ahammad, H., Heyhoe E., Nelson G., Sands R., Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., van ver Mensbrugghe D., Blanc E., Havlik P., Valin H., Kyle P., Mason d’Croz D., van Meijl H., Schmitz C., Lotze-Campen H., von Lampe M., Tabeau A.
  • Total Pages: 16
  • Publisher: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
• [Remarks] Global land-use allocation model linked to an IAM
  • URL: https://www.nies.go.jp/social/abstracts16.html
• [Remarks] SSP3: AIM Implementation of SSPs
  • URL: https://www.nies.go.jp/social/abstracts20.html
• [Remarks] Emissions trading help the Paris Agreement?
  • URL: https://www.nies.go.jp/social/abstracts17.html
• [Remarks] 世界のガス排出のダウンスケールと気候モデル実験から得られる含意
  • URL: https://www.nies.go.jp/social/abstracts15.html
• [Remarks] Cutting carbon emissions could have indirect
  • URL: http://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2015/acs-presspac-june-10-2015/cutting-carbon-emissions-could-have-indirect-effects-on-hunger.html
• [Remarks] Policies to Mitigate Climate Change Could Increase
  • URL: http://www.realclearscience.com/journal_club/2015/08/03/policies_to_mitigate_climate_change_could_increase_global_hunger.html
• [Remarks] Cutting carbon emissions could have indirect effec
  • URL: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150610111133.htm
• [Remarks] Cutting carbon emissions may have indirect effec
  • URL: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/cutting-carbon-emissions-may-have-indirect-effects-on-hunger/articleshow/47664808.cms
• [Remarks] Cutting carbon emissions could have indirect effec
  • URL: http://www.rdmag.com/news/2015/06/cutting-carbon-emissions-could-have-indirect-effects-hunger