| Project/Area Number |
16206052
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | Tohoku University |
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Principal Investigator |
ANDO Asao Tohoku University, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Professor (80159524)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MORISUGI Hisayoshi Tohoku University, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Professor Emeritus (80026161)
SASAKI Komei Tohoku University, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Professor Emeritus (10007148)
AKAMATSU Takashi Tohoku University, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Professor (90262964)
FUKUYAMA Kei Tottori University, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor (30273882)
KONO Tastuhito Tohoku University, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Associate Professor (00344713)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2007
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥36,790,000 (Direct Cost: ¥28,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥8,490,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥8,580,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,980,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥8,580,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,980,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥9,360,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,160,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥10,270,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,370,000)
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| Keywords | population changes in quantity and quality / urban structural analysis / dynamic analysis / new economic geography / location-competition game / spatial CGE model / cost-benefit analysis / spatial time-series econometrics / 少子高齢化 / 世代重複モデル / 2国拡張ソローモデル / 都心・郊外型商業 / 住み替え費用 / プーリンダ分析 / 地球温暖化 / SCGEモデル / 二国動学 / 地域経済リスク / 時空間自己相関 / 市町村財政 / 空間自己相関 / 持続可能性 / 未熟練労働人口 / ネットワーク型インフラ / 価値変動リスク |
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| Research Abstract |
A rapid population decrease happens in Japan as a result of the fertility decline. There is no problem in population decrease itself from the viewpoint of the resource allocation. Econom ical and/or social strains may occur in the transitional phase. The population is changing qualitatively, too. A decrease in labor force alters production and demands for goods and services. On the other hand, the increase in fossil fuel consumption, which caused by population growth and improving living standards in developing countries, is more important issue for the entire world. This is the reason why a phrase "quantitative and qualitative change in the population" is included in the title of this research instead of a phrase "declining birthrate and an aging population". "City structural analysis" and "dynamics analysis" are other main keywords. In traditional urban planning and land planning in Japan, assuming economic growth, the goal was maximizing social welfare. We should focus on quality and selective withdrawal in the future. This study aimed at a comprehensive study on analysis and evaluation techniques appropriate for the situation of population decline.
This research report includes 11 theoretical or empirical articles. They are related with any of the three keywords. We classified the nine thesis based on modeling the space, and composed three chapters of them. These are (1) analysis of changes in the urban population, (2) dynamic analysis model of regional population change, and (3) a spatiotemporal analysis of discrete-space model. Another chapter is composed of two papers in which the falling birthrate and aging are analyzed from original aspects. Quantitative and qualitative changes in the population are the theme that is important in both the land development program and the macroeconomics. We are going to continue a multidirectional study aiming at more useful result.
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