| Project/Area Number |
16255012
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 海外学術 |
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| Research Field |
Agro-economics
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| Research Institution | KYUSHU UNIVERCITY (2006)
Tottori University (2004-2005) |
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Principal Investigator |
ITO Shoichi Kyushu University, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 大学院農学研究院, 教授 (30222425)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
INAMOTO Shirou Ryukoku University, Faculty of Economic, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (80026468)
KAKO Toshiyuki Kobe University, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (00121533)
YAMAJI Eiji Tokyo University, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (10143405)
ISHIKAWA Yukihiro Tottori University, Faculty of Regional Science, Professor, 地域学部, 教授 (80108787)
MARUYAMA Sachio Tukuba University, College of Agro biological Resources, Professor, 大学院・生命環境科学研究科, 教授 (40361307)
加賀爪 優 国立大学法人京都大学, 大学院・農学研究科, 教授 (20101248)
茅原 紘 国立大学法人信州大学, 大学院・農学研究科, 教授 (80021088)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2006
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥40,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥31,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥12,350,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,850,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥14,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,390,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥13,260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,060,000)
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| Keywords | rice / Asia / declining demand / global crop competition / simulation for 2050 / development for processed and feeding use of rice / 学校給食 / 将来予測 |
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| Research Abstract |
Interdisciplinary Studies on the Global Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies
The shrinking demand for rice in the world has been putting an enormous pressure on rice production. This is indeed approaching a critical situation for Asian agriculture. In this research, the current rice situation in each individual Asian country, simulations for rice consumption toward 2050 with 3 scenarios were conducted. The findings in this study are as follows :
1. Per capita rice consumption (PCRC) in the world has been declining by 0.6% annually in the 2000s.
2. If this situation continues, PCRC would be 58.9kg by 2050.
3. If this declining rate doubles or triples, then the PCRC would be as small as 52.7kg or 46.2kg, individually.
4. Total global rice consumption would be 535 million tons in 2050 with the smallest assumption of declining rate followed by 479 million tons and 418 million tons with doubled and tripled declining rates, respectively.
5. The IRRI (2003) estimated for 2025, and this is 7% greater than the most conservative estimate in this research. An overestimate by the IRRI might be a possibility.
6. Very few researches on rice consumption are done in the most Asian countries, and it is important to enhance researches in this area.
7. The declining rice consumption eventually force domestic production of rice in individual Asian nations, and the Asian agriculture which depends on rice heavily may get deteriorated and lose competitiveness against the agriculture in Non-Asian areas. This may also delay improvement of poverty in the Asian rural areas.
8. Japanese government should take the initiative and encourage other Asian nations to develop researches on rice consumption and food education using the ODA fund.
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