| Project/Area Number |
16330051
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
KOMAKI Yasuyuki College of Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (80339225)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
JINUSHI Toshiki Kobe University, Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (60171089)
TAKEDA Yosuke Sophia University, Faculty of Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (20266068)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2006
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000)
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| Keywords | exchange rate / survey data / expectations / foreign exchange intervention / サーベイ・データ / 日銀の金融政策 |
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| Research Abstract |
We composed the new original data base as follow;
1) Survey data on the foreign exchange market in Japan
2) Data of actual interventions and oral intervention in foreign exchange markets
1) The features of foreign exchange rate expectations by using survey data
In a previous study of survey data on the foreign exchange market in Japan, we mainly used the Japan Centre for International Finance (JCIF) survey. The findings of studies that have used survey-based expectations are robust only if the JCIF survey reflects market expectations correctly. As the JCIF survey has been the only available data for some time, it is difficult to determine whether it correctly reflects market expectations and thus we use the World Economic Information Services (WEIS) survey.
On the JCIF survey, there is a clear difference between short-horizon and long-horizon expectations. But, the WEIS does not exhibit this gap. According to the unbiasedness test, in the WEIS survey, the test is not rejected. This suggests that forecasting performance depends on information-gathering capacity when respondents to the survey make forecasts. The WEIS survey essentially represents rational expectations.
2) The Comparative Analysis of the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention in the late-1980s and 1990s
This paper analyses whether actual interventions and oral intervention in foreign exchange markets are effective in the late 1980s. We use the reports of interventions in the financial press.
The impacts of intervention information in the late-1980s were as follows; Oral interventions were more significant and sustainable than the reported intervention. Reported intervention was significant in case of the US dollar bought.Despite the large volume of information on actual and oral interventions were reported in the Tokyo market, the effects of communication in foreign exchange market was not effective influencing exchange rate, because of policy inconsistency between different countries.
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