| Project/Area Number |
16380111
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
林学・森林工学
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
SHIMATANI Kenichiro The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Department of Statistical Modeling, Assistant professor, モデリング研究系, 助手 (70332129)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
ISAGI Yuji Hirosnima University, Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Associate Professor, 総合科学部, 助教授 (50325130)
KUBOTA Yasuhiro Kagoshima University, Faculty of Education, Associate Professo, 教育学部, 助教授 (50295234)
TAKAHASHI Makoto Forest Tree Breeding Center, Research Fellow, 育種部, 室長 (90370824)
TANEMURA Masaharu The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Department of Statistical Modeling, Professor, モデリング研究系, 教授 (80000214)
SHIMIZU Nobuo The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Department of Data Science, Assistant professor, モデリング研究系, 助手 (00332130)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2006
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2006)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥10,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥4,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥4,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000)
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| Keywords | silviculture / genetics / point process / seed tree / secondary forest / AIC / natural regeneration / Poisson process / Cox過程 / 赤池情報量基準 |
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| Research Abstract |
The primary object of this research was to reconstruct regeneration processes of secondary forest by means of genetic markers and mathematical models. We have also developed new statistical models and applied them to long-term forest monitoring data.
We analyzed isozyme and microsatellite markers in two secondary beech-dominant stands in Tohoku district and applied genetic inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We obtained the maximum likelihood estimates about forest regeneration parameters such as seed dispersal, pollen flow and individual female reproductive success, which gave implications about forest regeneration mechanisms in the past.
In the other beech-dominant stand in Tohoku district, we checked old forestry records and tried to correspond them to current stands and the resulting stand structures. Then we analyzed microsatellite markers and estimated the contribution of advanced regeneration prior to the harvesting.
On the other hand, in the old-growth forest in Hokkaido, we analyzed
… More
10-years forest community dynamics, in particular spatial pattern changes and interactions between conifers and broad-leaved species. In addition, we conducted dendrochronological analysis as well as microsatellites for Abies sachalinensis and examined its long-term dynamics in the forest community dynamics. We have also investigated 7-years sapling bank dynamics of Abies mariesii in the central mountainous regions in Japan.
In the southern part of Japan, we constructed seedling survival models of Castanopsis sieboldii in Okinawa Island, in which Bayesian nonparametric smoothing technique and model selection by AIC played a central role. In another southern island, Tsushima, there is an old-growth forest where long-term forest monitoring has been conducted for 12 years. Using this dataset and applying the nonparametric Bayesian smoothing binary regression, we derived size-dependent mortality patterns for 11 evergreen species.
Finally, the models used in the secondary beech-dominant stands originated from the gene flow models for investigating Fraxinus mandshurica populations in Hokkaido. Less
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