| Project/Area Number |
16570020
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Ecology/Environment
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| Research Institution | Kyushu University |
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Principal Investigator |
SASAKI Akira Kyushu University, Faculty of Science, Associate Professor, 理学研究院, 助教授 (90211937)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2005
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2005)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2004: ¥2,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000)
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| Keywords | evolution of virulence / spatial structure / small world / epidemiological dynamics / bistability / rabbit hemorrhagic disease / 非線形共鳴 / 流行予測 / インフルエンザ / 交差免疫 / 制限酵素認識配列の進化 / ファージエスケープ / 包含関係 / ワード頻度 / 毒性進化 / 進化動態 / ネットワーク / ウサギ出血病ウイルス / 獲得免疫 |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
Emergence of virulent pathogen : host spatial structure may explain large shift in pathogen virulence
Theory on the evolution of virulence generally predicts selection for an optimal level of virulence determined by trade-offs with transmission and/or recovery. Here we consider the evolution of pathogen virulence in hosts who acquire long-lived immunity and live in a spatially structured population. We show theoretically that large shifts in virulence may occur in pathogen populations as a result of a bistability in evolutionary dynamics caused by the local contact or social population structure of the host. This model provides an explanation for the rapid emergence of the highly virulent strains of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus. This work is published in Science.
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