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The Effects of Population Decline on Structural Change and Economic Growth

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K03621
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Sasaki Hiroaki  京都大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (70534840)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Keywords経済成長 / 人口減少 / 産業構造変化 / 国際貿易 / 産業構造
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The main purpose of this study is to theoretically investigate how the structure of an economy changes and how the growth rate of the economy changes when the growth rate of the population is negative. We model a situation in which there exist two countries with the manufacturing sector and the agricultural sector and these two countries engage in free trade. Using the model, we investigate the relationship between the long-run trade patterns and the long-run growth rate of per capita income. Our results show that the difference in the population growth rates between the two countries produces the difference in the per capita income growth rates between the two countries.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の目的は,人口成長率がマイナスの経済において,産業構造がどのように変化していくのか,および経済成長率がどのように変化していくのかを理論的に分析することである.これまで,産業構造変化と経済成長の関係を分析した研究は数多くあった.また,人口減少が経済成長に与える影響を分析した研究も生まれつつある.しかし,これら2つを統合した研究は,管見の限り,存在しない.現在の日本のように,人口成長率がマイナスとなっている経済を分析するには,これら2つの分野を統合する必要がある.本研究の成果は,日本だけでなく,今後,人口減少を経験する可能性がある経済の分析にも大きく貢献することが可能である.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2018 2017 2016

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] A Note on the Solow Growth Model with a CES Production Function and Declining Population2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      MPRA Discussion Paper

      Volume: MPRA Paper 80062 Pages: 1-10

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Population Growth and Trade Patterns in Semi-Endogenous Growth Economies2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

      Volume: 41 Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.strueco.2017.01.001

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Capital Accumulation and the Rate of Profit in a Two-Class Optimizing Economy2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      制度的経済動学セミナー,京都大学
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Solow Growth Model with a CES Production Function and Declining Population2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2018年度秋季大会,学習院大学
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Differences in Wage-Determination Systems between Regular and Non-Regular Employment in a Kaleckian Model2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明,薗田竜之介
    • Organizer
      22nd FMM Conference in Berlin
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Goodwin Growth Cycles with Workers' Saving2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      Economic Theory Workshop, University of Massachusetts Amherst
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Implications of Workers' Saving Behavior in a Kaleckian Model with Capital Accumulation2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      Macro Lunch Seminar, The New School for Social Research
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Solow Growth Model with a CES Production Function and Declining Population2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      Tohoku University Alumni Workshop in Economics,龍谷大学
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Solow Growth Model with a CES Production Function and Declining Population2018

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      佐賀大学経済学会研究会,佐賀大学
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Population Growth and Trade Patterns in Semi-Endogenous Growth Economies2016

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      日本国際経済学会第75回全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      中京大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-30
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Population Growth and Trade Patterns in Semi-Endogenous Growth Economies2016

    • Author(s)
      佐々木啓明
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2016年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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