| Project/Area Number |
16K04136
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social welfare and social work studies
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| Research Institution | St. Luke's International University (2018)
The University of Tokyo (2016-2017) |
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Principal Investigator |
GILMOUR Stuart 聖路加国際大学, 専門職大学院公衆衛生学研究科(公衆衛生大学院), 教授 (20608913)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
中岡 慎治 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 派遣研究員 (30512040)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | 高齢化社会 / 数理モデル / シミュレーション / 人口予想 / Demography / Matrix models / Projection / Simulation / Aging / Modeling / 高齢化 / 人口学 / 社会福祉関係 / 社会医学 / 保健人材管理 / 社会福祉計画 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This research developed a new model of population dynamics in Japan, and used this model to provide the first comprehensive assessment of major policies to adapt to the rapidly aging society. In this research I assessed two strategies for responding to aging in Japan: a) a strategy based on increasing births in the Japanese population; and b) a strategy based on increased migration. I assessed the impact of both of these strategies by the change in the old age dependency ratio (OADR) up to 50 years in the future. My research showed that neither increasing births nor increasing immigration will have any significant effect on the OADR in future. Even extreme strategies such as increasing the total fertility rate (TFR) to 3 births per woman, or increasing migration to the extent that over 30% of the Japanese population is foreign born, will have minimal effect on the OADR. This research concludes that it is too late for Japan to reverse its hyper-aging.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の成果は、日本の人口政策に大きな影響を与えるであろう。 なぜならば、本研究において日本の人口の高齢化における将来戦略はもはやなく、日本での唯一の解決策は超高齢化に順応して高齢化とともに生きて学ぶことを示したからである。 我々は本研究で、超高齢化国における人口政策の評価のための新しい方法を示すことができたので、今後は他の研究者によって自身の国の人口統計政策を評価するためのモデル開発が進むであろう。 最後に、高齢化時代に近づいている他の国々に対しても日本の教訓は重要といえる。
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