Why did the El Nino prediction fail in summer 2014?

• Project/Area Number: 16K17810
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: Doi Takeshi 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (80638768)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥390,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥90,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
• Keywords: エルニーニョ予測 / 季節予測 / 自信過剰 / 貿易風の季節内変動 / 確率過程 / 東風バースト / エルニーニョ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, the false alarm of 2014 El Nino is examined using the SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system. It is found that resolving the high-frequency zonal wind variability over the western tropical Pacific, including the strong easterly wind bursts in June-July 2014, is a key for correct prediction. To capture individual high-frequency wind events beyond the synoptic weather time-scales is a challenge by use of the current prediction model. However, by synthetically incorporating the stochastic forcing like easterly wind bursts into the prediction system, we have successfully kept the 2014 El Nino prediction within the expected uncertainty.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

エルニーニョ現象の予測について、誤検出しやすい問題を改善する方法を示した。すなわち、熱帯太平洋西部での東西風の季節内変動の発生を確率過程として予測シミュレーションに追加強制することで、2014年などの予測のハズレを回避することができることを示した。エルニーニョ現象の発生は、世界中で異常気象の引き金になるため、その予測の誤検出率を下げることができたことは学術的にも社会的も重要である。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ハワイ大学国際太平洋研究 センター(IPRC)(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] IPRC(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ハワイ大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] 欧州地中海気候変化研究センター(CMCC)(イタリア)
• [Int'l Joint Research] 国際太平洋研究センター ( IPRC )(米国)
• [Journal Article] Merits of a 108-Member Ensemble System in ENSO and IOD Predictions (2019)
  • Author(s): Doi Takeshi、Behera Swadhin K.、Yamagata Toshio
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 32 Issue: 3 Pages: 957-972
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0193.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Improved Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode by Use of Subsurface Ocean Observations (2017)
  • Author(s): Doi, T., A. Storto, S.K. Behera, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata
  • Journal Title: J. Climate Volume: 30 Issue: 19 Pages: 7953-7970
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0915.1
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Improved seasonal prediction using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model (2016)
  • Author(s): Doi T., S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
  • Journal Title: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Volume: 8 Issue: 4 Pages: 1847-1867
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016ms000744
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability (2016)
  • Author(s): Tanizaki C., T. Tozuka, T. Doi, and T. Yamagata
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 1289-1304
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3382-2
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like Stochastic Forcing and the Effects on ENSO Prediction by the SINTEX-F System (2019)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 16th Annual Meeting(AOGS2019)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Stochastic wind bursts and their roles on the ENSO prediction ~ lessons learned from the false prediction of the 2014 El Nino event ~ (2019)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: International workshop on future climate change at NUIST
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing parametrization and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system -Lesson from 2014 El Nino prediction failure (2019)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing parametrization and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system -Lesson from 2014 El Nino prediction failure (2019)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: 27th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics(IUGG) General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 西風バースト/東風サージの発生を確率過程として考慮したエルニーニョ現象予測と自信過剰問題 (2019)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: 2019海洋学会秋季大会
• [Presentation] Merits of one hundred parallel simulations in seasonal climate prediction (2018)
  • Author(s): Doi, T., S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: Fourth International Symposium on Climate and Earth System Modeling
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing scheme and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system-lesson from 2014 El Nino prediction failure (2018)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi,Swadhin Behera, and Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: AGU fall meeting 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing scheme and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system-lesson from 2014 El Nino prediction failure (2018)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi,Swadhin Behera, and Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: 9th OFES workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 西風バースト/東風サージを確率過程として考慮したエルニーニョ現象予測-2014年の事例- (2018)
  • Author(s): 土井威志, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] SINTEX-F季節予測システム-過去 現在 未来-, (2018)
  • Author(s): 土井威志,
  • Organizer: 異常気象研究集会「季節予測システムの進展と異常気象の要因分析」
• [Presentation] One hundred parallel worlds in seasonal prediction (2018)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Doi,Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata
  • Organizer: Ocean Sciences Meeting 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 海洋亜表層観測データを用いた初期値補正とインド洋ダイポールモード現象の予測精度向上について (2017)
  • Author(s): 土井 威志, A. Storto, S. K. Behera, and 山形俊男
  • Organizer: JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 海洋亜表層観測データを用いた初期値補正とインド洋ダイポールモード現象の予測精度向上について (2017)
  • Author(s): 土井 威志, A. Storto, S. K. Behera, and 山形俊男
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
• [Presentation] 100アンサンブルメンバーによる季節予測実験 (2017)
  • Author(s): 土井 威志,S. K. Behera, and 山形俊男
  • Organizer: 2017年日本海洋学会秋季大会
• [Presentation] 海洋亜表層観測データを用いた初期値補正とインド洋ダイポールモード現象の予測精度向上について (2016)
  • Author(s): T. Doi, A. Storto, S.K. Behera, T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会2016年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 鹿児島大学(鹿児島県鹿児島市)
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-14
• [Presentation] The SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system (2016)
  • Author(s): T. Doi, S.K. Behera, T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 13th Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: 中国、北京
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-03
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Coastal Nino prediction (2016)
  • Author(s): T. Doi, S.K. Behera, T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 13th Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: 中国、北京
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Predictability of the California Nino/Nina (2016)
  • Author(s): T. Doi, C. Yuan, S.K. Behera, T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 (JpGU) 2016年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ(千葉県千葉市)
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-24
• [Presentation] SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system (2016)
  • Author(s): T. Doi, S.K. Behera, T. Yamagata
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 (JpGU) 2016年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ(千葉県千葉市)
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-23
• [Remarks] SINTEX-F季節予測システム
  • URL: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/seasonal/outlook.html
• [Remarks] 季節ウオッチ
  • URL: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/climate/