Evaluation of changes in flood and drought in the world with a very high resolution global warming projection and multi-scale hydrological models
| Project/Area Number |
17360239
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
水工水理学
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo (2007)
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (2005-2006) |
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Principal Investigator |
KANAE SINJIRO The University of Tokyo, INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR (20313108)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HIRABAYHASHI Yukiko UNIVERSITY OF YAMANASHI, INTERDISCTPLINARY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF MEDICALAND ENGINEERING, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR (60377588)
DUSHMANTHA Dutta 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 助教授 (30291313)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2005 – 2007
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2007)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥12,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥4,100,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥4,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000)
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| Keywords | Global Warming / Climate Change / Flood / Drought / 水工水理学 / 水資源 / 水循環 / 自然災害 |
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| Research Abstract |
A number of recent studies have investigated an upward or downward trend over the past several decades in the frequency of heavy to extreme hydrological events. A common and popular topic for such analyses has been extreme precipitation events because long-term gauge observations that are continuously observed several decades exist for many stations around the globe. Future extreme daily precipitation projections have also been estimated and discussed based on various climate change simulations On the other hand, there have been insufficient studies of future projections of extremes in global river discharge in climate change simulations. This is primarily because of a limitation of spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs).
To date, computer technology has allowed long-term global estimates of hydrological components using a GCM containing ocean, atmosphere and land surface sub-modules (hereafter called as "coupled ocean-atmosphere-lance'' GCM) with relatively high spatia
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l resolution (T106, approximately 1.1-degree) for historical and future climate change scenario forcing. The aim of this study was to demonstrate future projections of extremes in global river discharge, i.e., flood and drought, estimated using the daily modeled discharge by the MIROC. The global warming simulation with relatively high spatial resolution of the MIROC will provide a detailed picture of future extremes in river discharge, even over small basins that have not been distinguished.
Simulated daily discharge derived from a high-resolution general circulation model was used to investigate future projections in extremes in river discharge under the global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except regions including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia show decrease or any significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show decrease the number of precipitation days, but increase the days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.
Impact of climate on hydrological changes in 20th century in the Yellow River was also evaluated. As a result, half of sudden decrease of river discharge was attributed to the impact of climate. Less
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(33 results)
