| Budget Amount *help |
¥9,230,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2007: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥2,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥3,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000)
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| Research Abstract |
In this project, the potential and limit of Real Options Analysis(ROA)are mainly studied, because ROA is often used by the US and UK pioneering biotech start-ups or large pharmaceutical companies as a decision malting method to make possible irmovative the drug development based on basic research for clinical serious diseases. Another objective of this study on ROA is came from one intention to make recovery of Japanese Management Style by a quantitative approach in order to catch-up on founding activities of Japanese biotech start-up with advanced countries as the US or UK.
According to this project, fast of all, them are some promising biotech start-ups that am operating or founding in such Japanese biotech dusters as the Hokkaido, Kanto, Kansai, Kyusyu, and Chubu areas, mainly because of establishing the technological transfer process from the basic research of life science to the bus ness or market Secondly, this study showed that the real optional design could change from a negativ
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e NPW (Net Present Value) into a positive ENPV (Expanded NPV) within a certain extent, while drug discovery biotech start-ups tend to face the death-valley, as long term of negative cash flow period. Additionally by using Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic ROA could show a quantitative model on not only the improvement of the expected return value from a negative to a positive value but also simultaneously the reduction of risk, based on multiple scenarios from simulation instead of a point estimation of one scenario from a binomial lattice model Thirdly, for a rational decision making at strategic partnerships as a method to overcome the death-valley by biotech start-ups, a modeling in an exploratory approach of option-game was tried for the integration between real options and game theory. While the conditions between the quantitative and the pricing competition modes are different, the study made dear a possibility that even non-cooperative game could guide to the optimal strategy for partnerships or open innovation.
Some of significances of this study are a teal optional design based on intellectual property and a modeling on the optimal strategy selection from the option-game at strategic partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies, for drug discovery biotech start-ups to overcome the death-valley, because start-ups are more suitable than large companies for the innovative and risky drug development projects.
The importance of the study is the building and test of the quantitative management model on long term investment decision for commercialization of basic research results in life science, since biotech industry is becoming important in the context of the future aging and as a next generation of industry after the automotive industry. Less
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