| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAKIMOTO Ryuji Kumamoto University, Center for Policy Studies, Associate Professor, 政策創造研究センター, 助教授 (00253716)
HASHIMOTO Junya Yatsushiro National College of Technology, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Lecturer, 土木建築工学科, 講師 (50300661)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000)
Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2005: ¥1,800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000)
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| Research Abstract |
The users of local bus are decreasing rapidly because of motorization and depopulation. Since many bus routes are deficit, local governments try to keep the bus routes by public subsidy as much as possible. However, many municipalities have a financial deficit and are pressed to reorganize the local bus route. The present subsidy system also has many problems about cost sharing among the municipalities. This paper examines reorganization of local bus route and studies what public subsidy should be. Then, the bus riding survey was performed on the northern area of Kumamoto prefecture in order to investigate the actual condition of bus utilization.
This research describes the influences of deregulation of bus business, revision of public subsidy, and the consolidation of local governments on daily transportation in Kumamoto prefecture. In this research, a questionnaire for 59 local governments in Kumamoto prefecture was executed in order to survey these influence. The trend of a reorganiz
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ation of daily transportation was analyzed using the questionnaire data, and factors of the trend were made clear. Community bus tends to be adopted as a facility of future daily transportation. However, community bus may cause problems if locality is disregarded. Then the issues were found in order to reorganize daily transportation in local area.
By the spread of passenger cars, and introduction of a new transportation system, the bus attraction gets worse in cities across the country. As deregulation of bus service, it is easy to enter or get out of bus service. When bus employer gets out of unprofitable bus route, there is fear that the life route for local resident is spoiled. So we need characteristic evaluation by bus service. In this paper, from the two view points of production efficiency and elicitation potential demand along the bus line, we assess existing bus line and propose rational method of reorganization on bus network on Kumamoto urban area.
Cost benefit analysis is very important in project evaluation. However, estimating exact benefit of a transport project is difficult, because it is complex to estimate demand and total benefit generated from the project. The context of this study is the proposal upgrading of local railway to LRT system and its extension line to the downtown. In this study, disaggregate mode choice model is used to estimate car and mass transit demand in the case of implementing the proposal. Benefit is calculated by assigning the demand into road and mass transit network of the study area. With the result, cost benefit analysis is carried out and efficiency of this proposal is evaluated.
Behavioral intention (BI) method is a new technology for demand forecasting. In this method, behavioral intention is directly measured from targeted people to imagine actual behavior in new traffic environment. BI method is based on the attitude theory, which is different from utility function models based on the reasoned choice theory in microeconomics. Therefore, all factors which affect traffic behavior do not need to be specified and converted into quantity to get included in function models. In this study, demand of Kumamoto-Dentetsu railway LRT plan is forecasted by using BI method. Thus, LRT specific effects are considered in demand forecasting, Comparing the result with that of four-Step method, which is a traditional method for traffic forecasting, knowledge on application of BI method to new traffic policy can be obtained. Less
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