Divided Democracies and Roles of Electoral System

• Project/Area Number: 17H00971
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Politics
• Research Institution: Kwansei Gakuin University
• Principal Investigator: YAMADA Masahiro 関西学院大学, 法学部, 教授 (40260468)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 前田 幸男 東京大学, 社会科学研究所, 教授 (30347257) ; 日野 愛郎 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (30457816) ; 松林 哲也 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40721949)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
• Budget Amount: ¥43,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥33,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥10,020,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥31,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥24,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥7,260,000)
• Keywords: ポピュリズム / 分断 / エリート / 選挙 / 投票行動 / 有権者 / 選挙制度 / 国際比較 / 衆議院選挙 / 排外主義 / 内閣支持 / 政治参加 / イデオロギー / 投票参加 / データ公開 / パンデミック / 比較選挙制度 / 政治知識 / 確証バイアス / voting behavior in 2017 / ideological scale / image of prime minister / 民主主義 / 政治学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We designed and carried out national survey via face-to-face mode after the general election in 2017. The Japanese version of the dataset is released at the SSJ Data Archive at University of Tokyo, and the English version is on cses.org as a part of cross-national dataset.
Our key finding are below; 1) growing income inequality may challenge the legitimacy of democratic elections; 2) the existing scales of populist attitudes effectively explain voting for populists in countries where populist leaders and parties are in opposition but fail to explain voting for populist parties in countries where they are in power: 3) individual authoritarian dispositions still contributes to the vote choice for the Liberal Democratic Party.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

国際比較調査の枠組に沿った日本データの取得および英語でのデータ並びに研究成果の公開によって，現在の日本の国際的な立ち位置が明確となった．日本におけるポピュリズムはこれまで地方政治や特定の政治家のリーダーシップから説明されることが多かったが，有権者を分析対象とすることによって，右翼的なポピュリズムの体制内化が可視化された．結果的に日本のポピュリズムは既成の政治エリートへの不信を伴わないものとして具現化されていることとなり，これは国際的にも興味深い知見である．

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Michigan/Vanderbilt University/New York University(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] GESIS/University of Mannheim(ドイツ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブリュッセル自由大学(ベルギー)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam(オランダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Gothenburg(スウェーデン)
• [Int'l Joint Research]
• [Int'l Joint Research] ブリュッセル自由大学(ベルギー)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ミシガン大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] GESIS(ドイツ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] カトリックルーヴァン大学(ベルギー)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Michigan(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] GESIS(ドイツ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Michigan(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] GESIS(Germany)
• [Journal Article] Still valuable? Reconsidering the role of authoritarian values among Japanese voters (2022)
  • Author(s): Benasaglio Berlucchi Antonio、Hino Airo
  • Journal Title: Japanese Journal of Political Science Volume: advanced access Pages: 1-17
  • DOI: 10.1017/s1468109922000056
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] How populist attitudes scales fail to capture support for populists in power (2021)
  • Author(s): Jungkunz Sebastian、Fahey Robert A.、Hino Airo
  • Journal Title: PLOS ONE Volume: 16 Pages: 261658-261658
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261658
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Japan: Political Development and Data in 2020 (2021)
  • Author(s): HINO AIRO、OGAWA HIROKI
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook Volume: 60 Pages: 222-232
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12333
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Income inequality and income bias in voter turnout (2021)
  • Author(s): Matsubayashi Tetsuya、Sakaiya Shiro
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Economy Volume: 66 Pages: 101966-101966
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101966
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] <資料>「日本の社会と政治に関する意識調査 (2019年)」コードブック (2021)
  • Author(s): 山田真裕
  • Journal Title: 法と政治 Volume: 72 Pages: 823-902
  • NAID: 40022710019
• [Journal Article] Do voters prefer gender stereotypic candidates? Evidence from a conjoint survey experiment in Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Ono Yoshikuni、Yamada Masahiro
  • Journal Title: Political Science Research and Methods Volume: forthcoming Pages: 1-16
  • DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2018.41
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] COVID-19, digital privacy, and the social limits on data-focused public health responses (2020)
  • Author(s): Fahey, R. and Hino, A.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Information Management Volume: Vol.55 Pages: 102181-102181
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2020.102181
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Intensity of Government-Opposition Divide as Measured through Legislative Speeches and What We Can Learn from It: Analyses of Japanese Parliamentary Debates, 1953-2013 (2020)
  • Author(s): Curini Luigi、Hino Airo、Osaki Atsushi
  • Journal Title: Government and Opposition Volume: d.k. Pages: 1-18
  • DOI: 10.1017/gov.2018.15
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] マルチレベル選挙における動員と選挙疲れ (2020)
  • Author(s): Song, J.，日野愛郎
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: Vol. 36, No.1 Pages: 23-34
• [Journal Article] Context Impacts on Confirmation Bias: Evidence From the 2017 Japanese Snap Election Compared with American and German Findings (2019)
  • Author(s): Knobloch-Westerwick Silvia、Liu Ling、Hino Airo、Westerwick Axel、Johnson Benjamin K
  • Journal Title: Human Communication Research Volume: Vol.45, No.4 Pages: 427-449
  • DOI: 10.1093/hcr/hqz005
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Representing the Twittersphere: Archiving a representative sample of Twitter data under resource constraints (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino Airo、Fahey Robert A.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Information Management Volume: 48 Pages: 175-184
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2019.01.019
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Japan: Political Development and Data for 2018 (2019)
  • Author(s): HINO AIRO、OGAWA HIROKI
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Political Research, Political Data Yearbook Volume: 58 Pages: 162-169
  • DOI: 10.1111/2047-8852.12269
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Age and Turnout in Aging Societies (2019)
  • Author(s): Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Kelan Lu
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Public Opinion Research Volume: 32 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/edz044
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 「世代と政治」 (2019)
  • Author(s): 山田真裕
  • Journal Title: 『法律時報』 Volume: 91(1) Pages: 46-51
• [Journal Article] 「政治参加における社会経済的バイアスの国際比較と日本」 (2018)
  • Author(s): 山田真裕
  • Journal Title: 『レヴァイアサン』 Volume: 63 Pages: 30-41
• [Journal Article] 「CSES（選挙制度の国際比較）調査－その目的と意義－ 」 (2018)
  • Author(s): 山田真裕
  • Journal Title: 『中央調査報』 Volume: 734 Pages: 1-7
  • NAID: 40021766540
  • Open Access
• [Journal Article] Reassessing Public Support for a Female President (2017)
  • Author(s): Burden Barry C., Ono Yoshikuni, Yamada Masahiro
  • Journal Title: The Journal of Politics Volume: 79 Pages: 1073-1078
  • DOI: 10.1086/691799
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 期日前投票制度と投票率 (2017)
  • Author(s): 松林哲也
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: 33 Pages: 58-72
  • NAID: 130007804673
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 熟慮の質に関する指標化の試み―Reasoning Quality Index（RQI）とArgument Repertoire（AR）の比較を通して (2017)
  • Author(s): 今井亮祐・日野愛郎・千葉涼
  • Journal Title: レヴァイアサン Volume: 61 Pages: 61-93
• [Presentation] Temperature and Voter Turnout (2021)
  • Author(s): 松林哲也
  • Organizer: 日本選挙学会
• [Presentation] Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Socio-Political Identity in Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Fahey, R. A., Hino, A., Camatarri, S., & Jungkunz, S.
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association Annual Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Party competition in voters’ mind: Simulating the role of policy issues - The case of the Japanese Upper House election in 2019 (2020)
  • Author(s): Camatarri, S., Gallina, M., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: The 3rd Winter Meeting of Japanese Society of Quantitative Political Science
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 「民主主義の分断と選挙制度の役割：調査データの概要」 (2019)
  • Author(s): 前田幸男, 山田真裕, 日野愛郎, 松林哲也
  • Organizer: 日本選挙学会
• [Presentation] Demand meets supply: How policy offers condition voting for challenger parties (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Camatarri, S
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Populist attitudes and party preferences in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Fahey, R. Jungkunz, S. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: North-eastern Workshop on Japanese Politics
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] District magnitude and manifesto coordination: Analyses of Japanese local elections (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Comparing the Subjective and Objective Measures of Political Knowledge (2019)
  • Author(s): 小椋郁馬・前田幸男
  • Organizer: 計量・数理政治学のフロンティア
• [Presentation] Decline of Pillarisation in Europe, resilience in Japan? The case of value-based parties: Komeito and Christian democracy (2019)
  • Author(s): Endo, M, Foret, F, and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A rise of authoritarian values in Japan and Europe? (2019)
  • Author(s): Gonthier, F. Jou, W., and Hino, A
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 計量テキスト分析による政党システム分極化の測定－政党マニフェストのアーカイブ化とWordfishによる政党位置の推定（1996年～2017年） (2019)
  • Author(s): 日野 愛郎、千葉 涼、吉光寺 智紀
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
• [Presentation] Populist dynamics: Interplay between parties’ rhetoric & voters’ attitudes in shaping electoral results (2019)
  • Author(s): Camatarri, S., and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: 3rd Waseda Brussels Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Populist voters & political trust in Europe & Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Fahey, R., Jungkunz, S.
  • Organizer: Conference on Multifaceted Values in Multilevel Contexts
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] "Procrastinating Voters: Evidence from Japan" (2019)
  • Author(s): Matsubayashi Tetsuya, and Shuhei Kitamura
  • Organizer: Asian Political Methodology Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] "Voting Behavior in the 2017 Snap Election" (2018)
  • Author(s): Yamada, Masahiro
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] "The image of prime minister in voters’mind: The analysis of open-ended questions from a Japanese election survey" (2018)
  • Author(s): Maeda, Yukio
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] "Lost in Translation?: Testing the Validity of Ideological Scales in Japan." (2018)
  • Author(s): Hino, Airo, and Masahisa Endo
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 「シルバー民主主義と2017 年衆院選」 (2018)
  • Author(s): 松林哲也
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
• [Presentation] Income Inequality and Income Bias in Voter Turnout (2017)
  • Author(s): Tetsuya Matsubayashi and Shiro Sakaiya
  • Organizer: American Political Science Association
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Deliberating through perspectives: Evidence from mini-publics experiments in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A., Imai, R., and Chiba, R.
  • Organizer: General Conference, European Consortium for Political Research
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ミニ・パブリックスにおける発話と態度変化に関する実証分析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 日野愛郎、千葉涼、今井亮佑
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会2017年度総会・研究大会
• [Presentation] Electoral bases of challenger parties in Western Europe (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Camatarri, S.
  • Organizer: West-European politics in 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Effects of district magnitude on manifesto coordination: Evidence from candidate manifestos compared across prefectural and municipality levels in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): Hino, A. and Blais, A.
  • Organizer: Workshop on ‘Manifesto coordination in multi-level settings’
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Nationalism in Asia (2017)
  • Author(s): Jou, W. and Hino, A.
  • Organizer: EU-Japan Forum
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Book] Value Politics in Japan and Europe (2021)
  • Author(s): Francois Foret, and Airo Hino
  • Total Pages: 206
  • Publisher: Routledge
  • ISBN: 9780367551247
• [Book] The Political Economy of the Abe Government and Abenomics Reforms (2021)
  • Author(s): Takeo Hoshi and Phillip Y. Lipscy
  • Total Pages: 420
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 9781108921145
• [Book] Research Handbook on Political Partisanship (2020)
  • Author(s): Henrik Oscarsson and Soren Holmberg
  • Total Pages: 400
  • Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc.
  • ISBN: 9781788111980
• [Book] The Oxford Handbook of Japanese Politics (2020)
  • Author(s): Robert J. Pekkanen and Saadia M. Pekkanen
  • Total Pages: 700
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN: 9780190050993
• [Book] 熟議の効用・熟慮の効果‐政治哲学を実証する (2018)
  • Author(s): 田中愛治（編著）
  • Total Pages: 228
  • Publisher: 勁草書房
  • ISBN: 9784326302666
• [Book] 「日本人」は変化しているのか 価値観・ソーシャルネットワーク・民主主義 (2018)
  • Author(s): 池田謙一（編著）
  • Total Pages: 275
  • Publisher: 勁草書房
  • ISBN: 9784326251247
• [Book] 二大政党制の崩壊と政権担当能力評価 (2017)
  • Author(s): 山田真裕
  • Total Pages: 183
  • Publisher: 木鐸社
  • ISBN: 9784833225038
• [Remarks] 「日本の社会と政治に関する意識調査（2019年）」コードブック
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/multidatabases/multidatabase_contents/detail/239632/95d79a0f1f904575c4b312aff244fb5a?frame_id=750043
• [Remarks] 「民主主義の分断と選挙制度の役割：CSES モジュール5 日本調査，2018」
  • URL: https://ssjda.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Direct/gaiyo.php?eid=1356
• [Remarks] Researchmap 山田真裕
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/read0182752
• [Remarks] Researchmap 前田幸男
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/PublicOpinionYmaeda
• [Remarks] Researchmap 日野愛郎
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/read0150918/
• [Remarks] Researchmap 松林哲也
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/tmatsubayashi
• [Remarks] 民主主義の分断と選挙制度の役割
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/view/cses5-japan/%E3%83%9B%E3%83%BC%E3%83%A0
• [Remarks] 山田真裕（リサーチマップ）
  • URL: https://researchmap.jp/read0182752/
• [Remarks] 民主主義の分断と選挙制度の役割
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/view/cses5-japan/
• [Remarks] 関西学院大学 政治行動研究センター
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/site/cspbkgu/home