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Power of Words in the Early Escalation Stage of International Conflict

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H00973
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field International relations
Research InstitutionWaseda University (2018-2021)
Kobe University (2017)

Principal Investigator

Tago Atsushi  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 教授 (80457035)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 稲増 一憲  関西学院大学, 社会学部, 教授 (10582041)
小浜 祥子  北海道大学, 公共政策学連携研究部, 准教授 (90595670)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥40,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥31,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,330,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥6,890,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,590,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥11,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,610,000)
Keywords見えない危機 / 戦闘機スクランブル / 安全保障 / 政治学実験 / テキスト分析 / 内容分析 / 実験 / 民意 / エリート / 政府声明 / 囚人のジレンマ / 政治学 / サーベイ実験 / 心理学 / エスカレーション / 国際紛争 / 広報外交 / サーベイ調査
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We studied "verbal escalation" through empirical research on government announcements and media reports in the early stages of international conflicts. The research focused on the initial stages of international conflicts, such as scrambling of fighter jets and violation of territorial waters. We conducted content analysis of government announcements and international media reports. In addition, through various experiments using the information content of "typical government announcements," we examined how citizens of their own and other countries would react upon receiving the relevant information. We were able to confirm that blaming the other country, which makes invisible crises visible, is a powerful force in terms of increasing public support in third countries. In addition, a series of surveys on the Japan-South Korea radar targeting incident in 2018 revealed that verbal escalation dramatically increases distrust of the other country's government.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

東アジアの諸国がなぜ相手国非難に陥ってしまうのかを、いわゆるゲームの理論の「囚人のジレンマ」として明らかにし、それが様々な条件で一貫して確認できることを明らかにした。そして、相手国非難が他国政府への不信を生み出す意味で、言葉によるエスカレーションが国家間関係をさらに難しくする悪循環しかもたらさないであろうことを明らかにした。日々の信頼構築と外交チャンネルを通じた穏便な問題解決の重要性を示している。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report

Research Products

(10 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Hong Kong/University of Hong Kong/Kai Quek(その他の国・地域)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Could Leaders Deflect from Political Scandals? Cross-National Experiments on Diversionary Action in Israel and Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Segev Elad、Tago Atsushi、Watanabe Kohei
    • Journal Title

      International Interactions

      Volume: X Pages: 1-14

    • DOI

      10.1080/03050629.2022.2044326

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Belief in territorial indivisibility and public preferences for dispute resolution2022

    • Author(s)
      Fang Songying、Li Xiaojun、Tago Atsushi、Chiba Daina
    • Journal Title

      Political Science Research and Methods

      Volume: X Pages: 1-17

    • DOI

      10.1017/psrm.2022.19

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Messenger’s Image vs Message Content in Public Diplomacy: Evidence from Survey Experiments2019

    • Author(s)
      Shoko Kohama, Atsushi Tago, and Kazunori Inamasu
    • Organizer
      Pacific International Politics Conference (July, 5, 2019, Academia Sinica, Taipei)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The power of denouncement in invisible crises2019

    • Author(s)
      Shoko Kohama, Atsushi Tago, and Kazunori Inamasu
    • Organizer
      Faculty Workshop (Dept. of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Uppsala)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A Pre-Experiment Plan2019

    • Author(s)
      Shoko Kohama, Atsushi Tago, and Kazunori Inamasu
    • Organizer
      Faculty Workshop (Dept. of Political Science, University of Hong Kong)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Trump Effect on American Soft Power: Survey Experiments on Transnational Communication2018

    • Author(s)
      Shoko Kohama, Kazunori Inamasu and Atsushi Tago
    • Organizer
      European Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Effects of announcement shift in diplomatic communication2018

    • Author(s)
      Atsushi Tago
    • Organizer
      Pacific International Politics Conference
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Japanese Public Sentiment on South Korea : Popular Opinion and International Relations2021

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi, Tetsuro (EDT)/Tago, Atsushi (EDT)
    • Total Pages
      146
    • Publisher
      Routledge
    • ISBN
      9781000539684
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 戦争とは何か2020

    • Author(s)
      多湖淳
    • Total Pages
      201
    • Publisher
      中央公論新社
    • ISBN
      9784121025746
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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