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Effects of High Frequency Tradings on Efficiency and Stability of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Analysis using High-frequency Data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H00995
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Principal Investigator

Ito Takatoshi  政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 名誉教授 (30203144)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 山田 昌弘  大阪大学, 経済学研究科, 准教授 (60732435)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥41,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥31,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,540,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥7,150,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,650,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥9,880,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,280,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥7,020,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,620,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥7,150,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,650,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Keywords為替レート / 高頻度取引 / マイクロストラクチャー / 仲値 / 裁定取引 / 取引実行リスク / 流動性 / 価格発見 / 高頻度データ / プライス・ディスカバリー / マーケット・マイクロストラクチャー / マクロ統計 / 高頻度取引者 / 裁定条件 / 外国為替市場 / 高速取引 / 指値 / 市場効率性 / Bid / Ask / 効率性
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In the foreign exchange market, the electronic broking system, EBS and Reuters, became dominant order-matching systems since the 1990s. After 2003, the bank dealers’ computers became connected directly to the matching computer. Trading with an algorism became popular as algorithmic trading takes place in a fraction of a second. As algorithmic trading became prevalent, researchers became interested in how it would affect the efficiency of the market. We found that arbitrage profit opportunities (negative spread and triangular arbitrage), taking into execution risk, became less likely to occur, and once it occurs it would disappear faster as more algorithmic traders are in the market.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

アルゴリズム取引が主流になるにつれて、裁定取引の機会が失われてきたという意味で、市場が効率的になることが発見された。これは、アルゴリズム取引が市場のアノマリーを取り除き、効率的にしていることを示している。コンピューターによる取引指示、コンピューターによる売買のマッチングが、高頻度(1秒の100分の1単位)で行われるようになったことで効率的な市場が実現、売買の取引コストは削減されてきた。もちろん、市場の効率性はアノマリーが起きないことだけではなく、流動性が常に十分にあるのか、価格発見が速いのか、という基準もあり得る。このような発展的研究課題は次年度に行う。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (28 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (5 results) Funded Workshop (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Price discovery and liquidity recovery: Forex market reactions to macro announcements2022

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Yamada and Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Money and Finance

      Volume: 120 Pages: 1-21

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102502

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy2020

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito and Tomoyoshi Yabu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,

      Volume: 58 Pages: 101106-101106

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2020.101106

    • NAID

      210000164425

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements2020

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Yamada & Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      NBER working paper

      Volume: 27036 Pages: 1-56

    • DOI

      10.3386/w27036

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy2020

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito and Tomoyoshi Yabu
    • Journal Title

      NBER working papers

      Volume: no 26644 Pages: 1-36

    • NAID

      210000164425

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets2020

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito; Kenta Yamada; Misako Takayasu; Hideki Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      NBER working papers

      Volume: no 26760 Pages: 1-30

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Changing International Financial Architecture: Growing Chinese Influences?2018

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Asian Economic Policy Review

      Volume: 13 Issue: 2 Pages: 192-214

    • DOI

      10.1111/aepr.12217

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Did the reform fix the London fix problem?2018

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi and Masahiro Yamada
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Money and Finance

      Volume: 80 Pages: 75-95

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.10.004

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Puzzles in the Tokyo fixing in the forex market: Order imbalances and Bank pricing2017

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi and Masahiro Yamada
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Economics

      Volume: 109 Pages: 214-234

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.09.005

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?2017

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi and Masahiro Yamada
    • Journal Title

      NBER Working Papaer

      Volume: 23327 Pages: 1-35

    • DOI

      10.3386/w23327

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Presentation] “No Free Lunch? Arbitrage Opportunities and Execution Risk in the Foreign Exchange Markets” (revised)2021

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito
    • Organizer
      High Frequency Exchange Rate and Stock Price Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric/Theoretical Analysis
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] アベノミクスの発射点と着地点2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Price discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcement2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏、山田昌弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本企業の為替リスク管理とインボイス通貨選択:平成30年度日本企業の海外現地法人アンケート調査結果概要2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏、鯉渕賢、佐藤清隆、清水順子
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Price discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcement2019

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito, Masahiro Yamada
    • Organizer
      4th Annual International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Price Discovery and Liquidity at Macro Statistics Announcement Time2019

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito and Masahiro Yamada
    • Organizer
      3rd Annual International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?2018

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi
    • Organizer
      Macro Lunch Workshop
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Survey and research direction of econometric analyses with high-frequency (EBS) data2017

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi and Masahiro Yamada
    • Organizer
      2nd International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 新しい国際金融システムの構築に向けて2017

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      統計研究会創立70周年記念シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The international financial architecture for the 21st century2017

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi
    • Organizer
      the 16th H W Arndt Memorial Lecture
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] The Changing Fortunes of Central Banking2018

    • Author(s)
      P. Hartmann, H. Huang, D. Schoenmaker, M. King, F. Capie, G. Wood, P. Tucker, D. Kohn, H.S. Shin, R. Berner, E. Nier, D. Tsomocos, U. Peiris, R. Espinoza, A. Kashyap, S. Cecchetti, C. Wyplosz, T. Ito, R. Aliber, M. Miller, O. Issing, A. Sheng, W. White, C. Goodhart, et al.
    • Total Pages
      408
    • Publisher
      Cambridge University Press
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] アルゴリズム取引と金融市場学会

    • URL

      http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~t-ito/j_hft.htm

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 伊藤隆敏研究室研究活動NEWS インデックス

    • URL

      http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~t-ito/j_archives.htm#news2020

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] High Frequency Trading Research Conferences

    • URL

      http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~t-ito/j_hft.htm

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 伊藤隆敏研究室 研究トピック

    • URL

      http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~t-ito/j_topics.htm

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 伊藤隆敏研究室 研究トピック

    • URL

      http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~t-ito/j_topics.htm#topic_01

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] 4th Annual International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets2019

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] 3rd International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets2019

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] 2nd International Conference on High Frequency Exchange Rate Dynamics: Econophysics and Econometric Analysis Based on the EBS data sets2017

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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