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Interaction between conscious and unconsciou process in causal reasoning

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H07277
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Cognitive science
Research InstitutionKwansei Gakuin University

Principal Investigator

SAITO Motoyuki  関西学院大学, 文学部, 助手 (70801926)

Project Period (FY) 2017-08-25 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords思考 / 因果推論 / ベイズモデル / 統計的因果推論 / 因果ベイズネット / 密度バイアス / 認知科学 / 実験心理学 / 潜在認知
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of the present study is to explore the interaction between conscious and unconscious process in causal reasoning. I focused on the outcome density bias and investigate how irrational judgments arise from a rational model. The results demonstrate (1) outcome density bias does not occur in causal reasoning with continuous outcomes, (2) similar results are confirmed in causal reasoning about preventive causal relations, and (3) variance in continuous outcomes has a great influence on causal reasoning.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究成果の学術的意義は、不合理な判断が合理的な認知モデルからどのように生じるかを明らかにしたことにある。この知見は既存の認知モデルの拡張を強く推進するものであり、理論的にも実験的にも有益なものと考えられる。また、社会的意義については、人間の思考の合理性と不合理性について示唆を含んでおり、不合理な思考の抑制や合理的な思考の促進につながると考えられる。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (5 results)

All 2018 2017 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California, Los Angeles(米国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Causal Bayes Nets in Causal Learning and Inference2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤 元幸
    • Journal Title

      Cognitive Studies: Bulletin of the Japanese Cognitive Science Society

      Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 79-95

    • DOI

      10.11225/jcss.24.79

    • NAID

      130006038536

    • ISSN
      1341-7924, 1881-5995
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimating Causal Power between Binary Cause and Continuous Outcome2017

    • Author(s)
      Saio, M & Cheng, P. W.
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society

      Volume: 39 Pages: 3033-3038

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 認知科学で読み解くギャンブルの合理性と不合理性2018

    • Author(s)
      斎藤元幸
    • Organizer
      日本アルコール・アディクション医学会学術総会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 変数の性質が因果推論に及ぼす影響2017

    • Author(s)
      斎藤元幸・Patricia W. Cheng
    • Organizer
      日本心理学会第81大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-08-25   Modified: 2022-05-23  

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