| Project/Area Number |
17K03790
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Public economy
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| Research Institution | Kwansei Gakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
金田 陸幸 尾道市立大学, 経済情報学部, 准教授 (50782083)
足立 泰美 甲南大学, 経済学部, 教授 (80734673)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
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| Keywords | 社会保障 / エージェントベースドモデル / マイクロシミュレーション / 税 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this study was to use agent-based models to create a future vision of Japan's declining birthrate and aging population, incorporate the tax and social security systems into the model, analyze how these system reforms will affect the declining birthrate and aging population, and consider the desirable size and role of the tax and social security systems. Through this study, we were able to examine the future picture of Japan's declining birthrate and aging population, future trends in income inequality, estimates of the number of households with persons certified as requiring long-term care, and the income redistribution effects of public pensions.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
エージェントベースドモデルは、個人の出生、労働、出産、結婚、離家、離婚、退職などのライフイベントを内生化し、世帯形成を表現できる点で、他のモデルよりも重要度が高く、このモデルによって少子高齢化と税・社会保障制度を分析することの意義は大きい。エージェントベースドモデルによる少子高齢化ならびに税・社会保障制度の分析は、欧米では活発に行われているが、我が国での研究の蓄積は乏しい。本研究により、エージェントベースドモデルによって少子高齢化の進展や所得格差、公的年金の効果を分析できたことの意義は大きい。
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