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Clarifying the inter-basin ocean-atmosphere interaction between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01281
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
Research InstitutionKyushu University (2019-2021)
Kyoto University (2018)

Principal Investigator

時長 宏樹  九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 教授 (80421890)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) RICHTER INGO  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), グループリーダー代理 (20649470)
小坂 優  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥7,540,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,740,000)
Keywords海盆間相互作用 / 大気海洋相互作用 / 熱帯大西洋 / 熱帯太平洋 / 気候変動 / 気候変動予測
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本研究は、経年から数十年規模の熱帯大西洋-太平洋間相互作用の要因とそれらの気候影響の解明を目指している。本年度は、(1)CMIP6 のマルチモデル相互比較による大西洋-太平洋海盆間相互作用の再現性検証、(2)linear inverse model (LIM) を用いた熱帯海盆における予測可能性の検証、(3)熱帯大西洋・太平洋気候値緩和モデル実験を実施した。(1) に関しては前年度から引き続いて取り組んだ研究課題であり、論文を発表した。(2)に関しては、米国テキサスA&M大学との共同研究により、観測と大気海洋結合モデルの海面水温データから LIMを構築し、これらのLIMが熱帯海盆の海面水温に対して高い予測スキルを持つことを明らかにした。(3)に関しては、大気海洋結合モデルCM2.1による全球結合実験と比較する感度実験として(a)熱帯大西洋海面水温を気候値に緩和する長期実験を実施し、解析を開始した。さらに(b)参照実験において熱帯北大西洋海面水温とENSOが共発達する事例を抽出し、熱帯大西洋及び太平洋の海面水温をそれぞれ気候値に緩和するアンサンブル実験も進めている。また関連研究として、熱帯太平洋-インド洋の海盆間相互作用による夏季アジアモンスーンの1年超え予測を実証したほか、ENSOによる熱帯全域での対流圏昇温が地球温暖化によって強化されることをCMIP6モデル解析から示した。
他の研究活動として、Richter と時長がWCRP/CLIVAR RFに参画し、2021年2月に熱帯海盆間相互作用に関する国際ワークショップをオンラインで開催した。本ワークショップには世界各国から200名以上が参加し、活発な議論が行われた。さらに、コンビーナとしてJpGU meeting 2020およびAGU Fall meeting 2020において熱帯海盆間相互作用に関するセッションを開催した。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

研究実績の概要に記載した研究成果は、全て論文として発表あるいは掲載済みとなっており、国内外の学会にて発表を行っている。また、研究チームからの発表だけでなく、国内外の学会・ワークショップにおいてコンビーナとしてセッション開催を成功させている。以上の理由から、本研究課題は概ね順調に進展していると判断できる。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

本研究は概ね順調に進んでおり、基本的には当初の計画通り研究を実施する。また、2020年度より、熱帯海盆間相互作用をテーマとしたWCRP/CLIVAR Research Foci の活動が本格化しており、これまで以上に国際共同研究を推進していく予定である。また、当初は計画になかった LIM を導入したことや、熱帯大西洋・太平洋を対象としたペースメーカー実験や気候値緩和実験を実施することにより、より詳細な熱帯海盆間相互作用のメカニズムや予測可能性について、研究を進める計画である。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report

Research Products

(56 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (9 results) Journal Article (17 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 10 results,  Peer Reviewed: 16 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (25 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 22 results,  Invited: 3 results) Book (5 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California San Diego/Texas A&M University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Chinese Academy of Sciences/Ocean University of China(中国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Bergen(ノルウェー)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California San Diego/Texas A&M University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research/Christian-Albrechts-Universitat zu Kiel(ドイツ)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Universidad Complutense de Madrid/Instituto de Geociencias, CSIC-UCM(スペイン)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] CECI/CERFAC(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Reading(英国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Bergen/Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research(ノルウェー)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Interannual Variability of Tropical Atlantic-to-Pacific Moisture Transport: Seasonality, Mechanisms, and Hydrological Influences2021

    • Author(s)
      Jun-Chao Yang, Yu Zhang, Ingo Richter, Xiaopei Lin
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: in press

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-20-0728.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Sea Surface Salinity Change since 1950: Internal Variability versus Anthropogenic Forcing2021

    • Author(s)
      Qiwei Sun, Yan Du, Shang-Ping Xie, Yuhong Zhang, Minyang Wang,Yu Kosaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 34 Pages: 1305-1319

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-20-0331.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Pacific Meridional Modes without Equatorial Pacific Influence2021

    • Author(s)
      Yu Zhang, Shiyun Yu, Dillon J. Amaya, Yu Kosaka, Sarah M. Larson, Xudong Wang, Jun-Chao Yang, Malte F. Stuecker, Shang-Ping Xie, Arthur J. Miller, Xiaopei Lin
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: in press

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-20-0573.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead2021

    • Author(s)
      Yuhei Takaya, Yu Kosaka, Masahiro Watanabe, Shuhei Maeda
    • Journal Title

      Nature Communications

      Volume: 12 Pages: 2094-2094

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Intensification of El Niテアo-induced atmospheric anomalies under greenhouse warming2021

    • Author(s)
      Kaiming Hu, Gang Huang, Ping Huang, Yu Kosaka, Shang-Ping Xie
    • Journal Title

      Nature Geoscience

      Volume: in press

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41561-021-00730-3

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] An overview of the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 55 Pages: 2579-2601

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-020-05409-w

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Systematic GCM Errors on Prediction Skill as Estimated by Linear Inverse Modeling2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Xue Liu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 33 Pages: 10073-10095

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-20-0209.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector2020

    • Author(s)
      Martineau Patrick、Nakamura Hisashi、Kosaka Yu、Taguchi Bunmei、Mori Masato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 33 Pages: 8125-8146

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-19-0977.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability2020

    • Author(s)
      Jian Ma, Lei Zhou, Gregory R. Foltz, Xia Qu, Jun Ying, Hiroki Tokinaga, Carlos R. Mechoso, Jinbao Li, Xingyu Gu
    • Journal Title

      Annals of the New York Academy of Science

      Volume: -

    • DOI

      10.1111/nyas.14335

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Multidecadal modulations of key metrics of global climate change2020

    • Author(s)
      Nathaniel C.Johnson, Dillon J.Amaya, Qinghua Ding, Yu Kosaka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Shang-Ping Xie
    • Journal Title

      Global and Planetary Change

      Volume: 188 Pages: 103149-103149

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103149

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] ENSO Influence on the Atlantic Nino, Revisited: Multi-Year versus Single-Year ENSO Events2019

    • Author(s)
      Tokinaga Hiroki、Richter Ingo、Kosaka Yu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 32 Pages: 4585-4600

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-18-0683.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Systematic Scatterometer Wind Errors Near Coastal Mountains2019

    • Author(s)
      Thomas Kilpatrick, Shang-Ping Xie, Hiroki Tokinaga, David Long, Nolan Hutchings
    • Journal Title

      Earth and Space Science

      Volume: 6 Pages: 1900-1900

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019ea000757

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The North Pacific Pacemaker Effect on Historical ENSO and Its Mechanisms2019

    • Author(s)
      Amaya Dillon J.、Kosaka Yu、Zhou Wenyu、Zhang Yu、Xie Shang-Ping、Miller Arthur J.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 32 Pages: 7643-7661

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-19-0040.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Arctic-Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability2019

    • Author(s)
      Matsumura Shinji、Kosaka Yu
    • Journal Title

      Nature Communications

      Volume: 10 Pages: 3441-3441

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41467-019-11359-7

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimating the role of SST in atmospheric surface wind variability over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific2019

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Takeshi Doi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 32 Pages: 3899-3915

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-18-0468.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] エルニーニョ/南方振動の持続性と大西洋ニーニョ現象2019

    • Author(s)
      時長 宏樹, Ingo Richter, 小坂 優
    • Journal Title

      「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会報告

      Volume: 平成30年度 Pages: 93-97

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Equatorial Atlantic variability-Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections2018

    • Author(s)
      Joke Lubbecke, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Ingo Richter, Marta-Martin-Rey, Teresa Losada, Irene Polo, Noel Keenlyside
    • Journal Title

      Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

      Volume: 9

    • DOI

      10.1002/wcc.527

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An experimental protocol to examine the link between the tropical Atlantic and ENSO2021

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Yu Kosaka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Takahito Kataoka
    • Organizer
      WCRP-CLIVAR Workshop on Climate Interactions among the Tropical Basins
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Understanding tropical interbasin interaction using linear inverse modelling2021

    • Author(s)
      Shoichiro Kido, Ingo Richter, Tomoki Tozuka, Ping Chang
    • Organizer
      WCRP-CLIVAR Workshop on Climate Interactions among the Tropical Basins
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Pacific-Indian Ocean coupling and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer climate2021

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Yuhei Takaya, Masahiro Watanabe, Shuhei Maeda
    • Organizer
      WCRP-CLIVAR Workshop on Climate Interactions among the Tropical Basins
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The extraordinary Atlantic Nino of 2019/20202020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the tropical Atlantic influence on ENSO2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Takahito Kataoka, Yu Kosaka, Takeshi Doi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Decadal variability of the Benguela Niテアo/Niテアa2020

    • Author(s)
      Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Impact of springtime cross-equatorial SST gradient on the Atlantic Niテアo/Niテアa2020

    • Author(s)
      Takaaki Yokoi, Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Summertime climate anomalies in Asia and the Northwestern Pacific induced by ENSO: Dependence on ENSO窶冱 phase transition2020

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Daiki Kado
    • Organizer
      Japan Geosciences Union-American Geophysics Union Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific variability on Arctic climate2020

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Lea Svendsen, Bunmei Taguchi
    • Organizer
      Sixth International Symposium on Arctic Research
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the acceleration of ENSO decay by northern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies2020

    • Author(s)
      Richter, Tokinaga, Kosaka, Doi
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of ENSO and Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability on the Arctic climate2019

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Lea Svendsen, Bunmei Taguchi, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific internal variability on Arctic climate2019

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Lea Svendsen, Bunmei Taguchi, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会小倉連携セッション "Deepening understanding of weather and climate from dynamical perspective"
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Remote influence of the tropical Pacific variability on Arctic climate2019

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Lea Svendsen, Bunmei Taguchi, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      10th International Workshop in Marine Environmental Changes
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] SST anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic as negative feedback to ENSO development2019

    • Author(s)
      Richter, Tokinaga, Kosaka, Doi
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evidence for relatively low predictability of the tropical Atlantic2019

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      NORPAN Closing Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Mechanisms and uncertainty in influence of the Pacific decadal variability on Arctic climate2019

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Bunmei Taguchi, Lea Svendsen, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      NORPAN Closing Workshop
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Influence of the Pacific decadal variability on Arctic climate2019

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Tsubasa Takigawa, Lea Svendsen, Bunmei Taguchi, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      Joint US-Japan Workshop on Climate Change and Variability
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the effect of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variability on Atlantic Nino/Nina events2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Ingo Richter, Yu Kosaka
    • Organizer
      JpGU meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the ENSO influence on the Atlantic Nino2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Ingo Richter, Yu Kosaka
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] エルニーニョ/南方振動の持続性と大西洋ニーニョ現象2018

    • Author(s)
      時長 宏樹, Ingo Richter, 小坂 優
    • Organizer
      平成30年度「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] エルニーニョ/南方振動の持続性と大西洋ニーニョ現象2018

    • Author(s)
      時長 宏樹, Ingo Richter, 小坂 優
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Examining the role of model bias in limiting tropical Atlantic prediction skill2018

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Ping Chang
    • Organizer
      PIRATA 23 Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] SST anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic as a negative feedback to ENSO development2018

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Takeshi Doi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Coupling of the Indian, Western North Pacific, and East Asian summer monsoons. In "Indian Summer Monsoon"2021

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Atlantic zonal mode: dynamics, thermodynamics, and teleconnections in "Tropical and Extra-tropical Air-Sea Interactions"2020

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Basin Interactions and Predictability in "Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins"2020

    • Author(s)
      Noel Keenlyside, Yu Kosaka, Nicolas Vigaud, Andrew W. Robertson, Yiguo Wang, Dietmar Dommenget, Jing-Jia Luo, Daniela Matei
    • Publisher
      Cambridge University Press
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor effect in "Tropical and Extra-tropical Air-Sea Interactions"2020

    • Author(s)
      Yu Kosaka, Yuhei Takaya, Youichi Kamae
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Chapter 3: Atmosphere-ocean interactions in "Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins: Observations, Mechanisms, Predictability, and Impacts"2020

    • Author(s)
      Ping Chang, Ingo Richter, and 3 co-authors
    • Publisher
      Cambridge University Press
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2021-12-27  

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