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Detection and attribution of flood changes using Earth observation big data and large ensemble climate experiments

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01540
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionShibaura Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

Hirabayashi Yukiko  芝浦工業大学, 工学部, 教授 (60377588)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 鼎 信次郎  東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 教授 (20313108)
山崎 大  東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (70736040)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Keywords地球温暖化 / 洪水 / 衛星画像ビッグデータ / 大規模アンサンブル実験 / 検出と原因特定 / 大規模気候実験 / 気候変動
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Event attribution experiments utilizing a long-term riverflow reanalysis, satellite imagery big data, and large-scale ensemble climate experiments was conducted to examine the contribution of human-induced climate change to past flood changes. The results indicated that the frequency of flooding has increased in Asia and South America due to an increase in heavy rainfall caused by human-induced climate change, and that this trend has been particularly pronounced in the past several decades. We also found that the frequency of some snowmelt floods in early spring has been decreasing due to the decrease in snowfall caused by past temperature increases. The results obtained in this study were not only published as peer-reviewed papers, but were also cited in the Working Group II of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report published at the end of February 2022, contributing significantly to the expansion of scientific knowledge in this field.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

世界で初めて多数の洪水に対するイベントアトリビューション実験を行い、過去の洪水の発生確率の変化に人為起源の温暖化が影響している証拠を示すことに成功した。長期河川流量再解析や衛星画像ビッグデータによる過去の洪水変化の検知手法も新たに提案し、温暖化の寄与の地理的分布や過去の洪水の発生が近年に多いことも示すなど関連分野への学術的な貢献が大きい。また、最新のIPCC報告書に引用されるなどこの分野の科学的知見の拡充に大きく貢献した。本研究は長期観測が不足している河川洪水に対して、温暖化による洪水変化の情報を提供することに成功しており、これらの地域の今後の洪水に関する適応策に重要な示唆を与えている。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (37 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 15 results,  Open Access: 9 results) Presentation (22 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results)

  • [Journal Article] Global-Scale Assessment of Economic Losses Caused by Flood-Related Business Interruption2022

    • Author(s)
      Taguchi Ryo、Tanoue Masahiro、Yamazaki Dai、Hirabayashi Yukiko
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 14 Issue: 6 Pages: 967-967

    • DOI

      10.3390/w14060967

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4?°C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries2022

    • Author(s)
      He Yi、Manful Desmond、Warren Rachel、Forstenh?usler Nicole、Osborn Timothy J.、Price Jeff、Jenkins Rhosanna、Wallace Craig、Yamazaki Dai
    • Journal Title

      Climatic Change

      Volume: 170 Issue: 1-2 Pages: 15-15

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Detectability of variation in river flood from satellite images2021

    • Author(s)
      Hirabayashi Yukiko、Alifu Haireti、Yamazaki Dai、Donchyts Gennadii、Kimura Yuki
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 15 Issue: 2 Pages: 37-43

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.15.37

    • NAID

      130008055530

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 物理過程および標高データの違いによる全球河川モデルの感度実験および洪水リスクの変化2021

    • Author(s)
      山田利紀, 藤田凌, 田上雅浩, 山崎大, 平林由希子
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集(環境)

      Volume: 77

    • NAID

      130008132163

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-20132021

    • Author(s)
      Hirabayashi, Y., H. Alifu, D. Yamazaki, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, Y. Kimura
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 8 Pages: 6-6

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 降水量データの違いによる日本域の河川流量再現性の評価、土木学会論文集B1(水工学)2021

    • Author(s)
      吉岡伸隆, 井手淨, 花崎直太, 平林由希子
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 77

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections2021

    • Author(s)
      Hirabayashi Yukiko、Tanoue Masahiro、Sasaki Orie、Zhou Xudong、Yamazaki Dai
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 3740-3740

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-021-83279-w

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Caused by a Flood With Long‐Lasting Inundation: Application to the 2011 Thailand Flood2020

    • Author(s)
      Tanoue M.、Taguchi R.、Nakata S.、Watanabe S.、Fujimori S.、Hirabayashi Y.
    • Journal Title

      Water Resources Research

      Volume: 56 Issue: 5

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019wr026092

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 地球温暖化による豪雨の変化と都市河川洪水への影響2020

    • Author(s)
      吉岡伸隆、井手浄、守田優、平林由希子
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1

      Volume: 76

    • NAID

      130008122716

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 統合水資源モデルH08で推計した灌漑水不足ポテンシャルと地盤沈下・地下水位の関係ー関東平野中流域における事例ー2020

    • Author(s)
      井手浄、井戸田優希、吉岡伸隆、田上雅浩、松村明子、小川田大吉、花崎直太、平林由希子
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1

      Volume: 76

    • NAID

      130008122562

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Physically Based Empirical Localization Method for Assimilating Synthetic SWOT Observations of a Continental-Scale River: A Case Study in the Congo Basin2019

    • Author(s)
      Revel、Ikeshima、Yamazaki、Kanae
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 11 Issue: 4 Pages: 829-829

    • DOI

      10.3390/w11040829

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Investigating flood detectability using satellite-derived daily global surface water change and a high resolution floodplain mask2019

    • Author(s)
      Haireti, A. D. Yamazaki, J. Luyan and Y. Hirabayashi
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 76

    • NAID

      130007940078

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 建物立地とその変化過程に着目した平成30年7月豪雨による浸水被害の分析2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤 悠一郎,中村 晋一郎,芳村 圭,渡部 哲史,平林 由希子,鼎 信次郎
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B1(水工学)

      Volume: 75 Pages: 299-307

    • NAID

      130007769825

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Flooding Related Consequences of Climate Change on Canadian Cities and Flow Regulation Infrastructure2019

    • Author(s)
      Gaur Ayushi、Gaur Abhishek、Yamazaki Dai、Simonovic Slobodan P.
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 63-63

    • DOI

      10.3390/w11010063

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique2018

    • Author(s)
      Bernhofen Mark V、Whyman Charlie、Trigg Mark A、Sleigh P Andrew、Smith Andrew M、Sampson Christopher C、Yamazaki Dai、Ward Philip J、Rudari Roberto、Pappenberger Florian、Dottori Francesco、Salamon Peter、Winsemius Hessel C
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Research Letters

      Volume: 13 Issue: 10 Pages: 104007-104007

    • DOI

      10.1088/1748-9326/aae014

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 全球河川モデルの不確実性および洪水リスクの変化2021

    • Author(s)
      山田利紀, 平林由希子, 藤田凌, 田上雅浩, 山崎大
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2021年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 物理過程および地形の違いによる全球河川モデルの感度の地域間比較2021

    • Author(s)
      山田利紀, 平林由希子, 藤田凌, 山崎大
    • Organizer
      土木学会全国大会第76回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Attribution of floods events (2010-2013) to climate change2021

    • Author(s)
      Haireti Alifu, Yukiko Hirabayashi and Dai Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2021年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降水量データの違いが日本域の河川流量再現性に与える影響の評価2021

    • Author(s)
      吉岡伸隆, 井手浄, 花崎直太, 平林由希子
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2021年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] RC-98洪水リスク研究会, 企業実務への活用を想定した全球の洪水ハザードマップの比較評価2021

    • Author(s)
      平林由希子, 山田果林, 山崎大, 石川悠生
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2021年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 大規模アンサンブル実験を用いた過去60年間の洪水への温暖化の影響の評価2020

    • Author(s)
      塚本篤輝, 平林由希子
    • Organizer
      令和2年度土木学会全国大会第75回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 都市流域における温暖化影響を考慮した計画降雨の提案2020

    • Author(s)
      吉岡伸隆, 平林由希子
    • Organizer
      令和2年度土木学会全国大会第75回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本における記録的な豪雨と洪水の関係についての分析2020

    • Author(s)
      山田利紀, 平林由希子
    • Organizer
      令和2年度土木学会全国大会第75回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Primary and Bifurcation Channel Depths to the River Flow in Mekong Delta through the use of a Global River Model2020

    • Author(s)
      Jose Angelo Hokson, Menaka Revel, Dai Yamazaki, Shinjiro Kanae
    • Organizer
      AGU (American Geosciences Union) Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Quantitative Analysis of Synchronized River Flood on the Global Scale Considering Multiple Flood Peaks2020

    • Author(s)
      Robuil MD Islam, Dai Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      EGU (European Geosciences Union) General Assembly 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 建物立地とその変化過程に着目した平成30年7月豪雨による浸水被害の分析2019

    • Author(s)
      伊藤悠一郎,中村晋一郎,芳村圭,渡部哲史,平林由希子, 鼎信次郎
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2019年度総会・研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 河川堤防防護による全球規模での適応費用便益分析2019

    • Author(s)
      田上雅浩, 平林由希子
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2019年度総会・研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The effective temporal-scale rainfall for the peak flow in world’s major river basin2019

    • Author(s)
      Ou Sha, Shinjiro Kanae
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of the estimation method of river flood business interruption loss at the global scale2018

    • Author(s)
      Taguchi, R., M. Tanoue, D. Yamazaki and Y. Hirabayashi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimation of gross domestic production loss due to flood impacts: case study for Thailand flood in 20112018

    • Author(s)
      Tanoue, M., R. Taguchi, S. Nakata, S. Watanabe, S. Fujimori and Y. Hirabayashi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 全球へ適用可能な洪水による営業停止損失推計手法の構築2018

    • Author(s)
      田口諒,田上雅浩,平林由希子
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度総会・研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 損失と被害の定量化のための全球河川氾濫モデルのダウンスケーリング手法の検討2018

    • Author(s)
      田上雅浩, 田口諒,平林由希子
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会2018年度総会・研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Application of a nesting approach for improved flood inundation simulation for estuaries and deltas in the framework of global flood modelling2018

    • Author(s)
      Ikeuchi, H., D. Eilander, J. Hock, F. Baart, D. Yamazaki, Y. Hirabayashi, H. Winsemius and P. Ward
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Global human and economic losses from river floods at global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃ and 3 ℃2018

    • Author(s)
      Dottori, F., W. Szewczyk, J. C. Ciscar, F. Zhao, L. Alfieri, Y. Hirabayashi, A. Bianchi, I. Mongelli, K. Frieler, R. Betts, L. Feyen
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Model based observation localization weighting function for Amazon mainstream2018

    • Author(s)
      M. Revel, D. Yamazaki, S. Kanae
    • Organizer
      土木学会水工学講演会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assimilation of synthetic SWOT observations to improve global river bathymetry using local ensemble transform Kalman filter2018

    • Author(s)
      M. Revel, D. Yamazaki, S. Kanae
    • Organizer
      Geophysical Union 2018 Fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Population displacement and flood in the world2018

    • Author(s)
      K. Kakinuma M.J.Puma, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union 2018 Fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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