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Risk Assessment of Severe Wind Disasters in Urban Districts under Climate Change

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H01680
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Takemi Tetsuya  京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (10314361)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中山 浩成  国立研究開発法人日本原子力研究開発機構, 原子力科学研究部門 原子力科学研究所 原子力基礎工学研究センター, 研究副主幹 (50535903)
堀口 光章  京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (60190253)
石川 裕彦  京都大学, 複合原子力科学研究所, 研究員 (60263159)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,990,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥6,630,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,530,000)
Keywords暴風 / 災害リスク評価 / 都市気象 / 乱流シミュレーション / 気候変動 / 都市災害 / 風災害 / 気候変動適応 / 暴風災害 / 台風
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study assessed risks of severe wind disasters in urban districts under climate change by conducting field observations of wind and temperature variations in the urban boundary layer and numerical simulations with a building-resolving large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The building-resolving LES model was validated against the field observations in summer when extremely hot weather occurred in a city. By incorporating actual urban geometrical data of Kyoto, Osaka, and Tokyo into the LES model, we performed numerical simulations of airflows and temperature fields in urban districts during the passages of recent extreme typhoons. We quantitatively assessed the impacts of extreme typhoons under global warming on strong and gusty winds in urban districts with various geometrical features.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

都市では、地球温暖化とヒートアイランド現象という二つの温暖化が進行し、建物の高層化や密集化により都市形態が変化している。地球温暖化により台風の強大化が予測される中、建物の高層化・密集化の因子が加わり、都市では災害に対する脆弱性が高まっている。本課題では、建物の高層化・密集化が進む都市において、台風といった極端気象現象による暴風災害リスクが温暖化時にどう変化するかを定量的に評価した。将来の温暖化による気象外力変化を想定し、暴風リスクを低減し気候変動に適応する視点から、今後は都市開発を進めていくことが学術的のみならず社会的にも重要である。こういった点への示唆を与えたことが、本研究の意義と言える。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (55 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (18 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 18 results,  Open Access: 11 results) Presentation (33 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 25 results,  Invited: 3 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Glasgow(英国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Glasgow(英国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Large-Scale Turbulence Structures in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observed in the Suburbs of Kyoto City, Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuaki Horiguchi, Kenichi Tatsumi, Alexandros Panagiotis Poulidis, Toshiya Yoshida, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Journal Title

      Boundary-Layer Meteorology

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Gustiness in thermally-stratified urban turbulent boundary-layer flows and the influence of surface roughness2021

    • Author(s)
      Duan G.、Takemi T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics

      Volume: 208 Pages: 104442-104442

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104442

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia2021

    • Author(s)
      Mori Nobuhito、Takemi Tetsuya、Tachikawa Yasuto、Tatano Hirokazu、Shimura Tomoya、Tanaka Tomohiro、Fujimi Toshimi、Osakada Yukari、Webb Adrean、Nakakita Eiichi
    • Journal Title

      Weather and Climate Extremes

      Volume: 32 Pages: 100309-100309

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.wace.2021.100309

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Predicting Urban Surface Roughness Aerodynamic Parameters Using Random Forest2021

    • Author(s)
      Duan G.、Takemi T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

      Volume: 60 Issue: 7 Pages: 999-1018

    • DOI

      10.1175/jamc-d-20-0266.1

    • NAID

      120007193022

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Large-Eddy Simulation of Plume Dispersion in the Central District of Oklahoma City by Coupling with a Mesoscale Meteorological Simulation Model and Observation2021

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama Hiromasa、Takemi Tetsuya、Yoshida Toshiya
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 12 Issue: 7 Pages: 889-889

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos12070889

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Spatial characteristics of turbulent organized structures within the roughness sublayer over idealized urban surface with obstacle-height variability2020

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida Toshiya、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Environmental Fluid Mechanics

      Volume: 21 Issue: 1 Pages: 129-154

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10652-020-09764-4

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Sensitivity of the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones to Tropospheric Stability Conditions2020

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Yamasaki Shota
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 11 Issue: 4 Pages: 411-411

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos11040411

    • NAID

      120006876590

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Development of a Data Assimilation Method Using Vibration Equation for Large‐Eddy Simulations of Turbulent Boundary Layer Flows2020

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama Hiromasa、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

      Volume: 12 Issue: 8

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019ms001872

    • NAID

      120006876569

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Benefits of high-resolution downscaling experiments for assessing strong wind hazard at local scales in complex terrain: a case study of Typhoon Songda (2004)2020

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Ito Rui
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 4-4

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-019-0317-7

    • NAID

      120006779801

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Environmental Factors for the Development of Heavy Rainfall in the Eastern Part of Japan during Typhoon Hagibis (2019)2020

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Unuma Takashi
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 16 Issue: 0 Pages: 30-36

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2020-006

    • NAID

      130007801483

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of Global Warming on Extreme Rainfall of a Slow-Moving Typhoon: A Case Study for Typhoon Talas (2011)2019

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 15 Issue: 0 Pages: 125-131

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2019-023

    • NAID

      130007655710

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Diagnosing Environmental Properties of the July 2018 Heavy Rainfall Event in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Unuma Takashi
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 15A Issue: 0 Pages: 60-65

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.15A-011

    • NAID

      130007709360

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative Estimation of Strong Winds in an Urban District during Typhoon Jebi (2018) by Merging Mesoscale Meteorological and Large-Eddy Simulations2019

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Yoshida Toshiya、Yamasaki Shota、Hase Kentaro
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 15 Issue: 0 Pages: 22-27

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2019-005

    • NAID

      130007592719

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Large-eddy-simulation study of the effects of building height variability on turbulent flows over an actual urban area2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida, T., T. Takemi, M. Horiguchi
    • Journal Title

      Boundary-Layer Meteorology

      Volume: 168 Issue: 1 Pages: 127-153

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10546-018-0344-8

    • NAID

      120006473818

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] WRF simulation of surface wind in high latitudes2018

    • Author(s)
      Dong Haotian、Cao Shuyang、Takemi Tetsuya、Ge Yaojun
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics

      Volume: 179 Pages: 287-296

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jweia.2018.06.009

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The evolution and intensification of Cyclone Pam (2015) and resulting strong winds over the southern Pacific islands2018

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics

      Volume: 182 Pages: 27-36

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jweia.2018.09.007

    • NAID

      120006523817

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Importance of Terrain Representation in Simulating a Stationary Convective System for the July 2017 Northern Kyushu Heavy Rainfall Case2018

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 14 Issue: 0 Pages: 153-158

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2018-027

    • NAID

      130007499500

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Large-eddy simulation studies for predicting plume concentrations around nuclear facilities using an overlapping technique2018

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Nakayama Hiromasa
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Environment and Pollution

      Volume: 64 Issue: 1 Pages: 125-144

    • DOI

      10.1504/ijep.2018.10019970

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 大気安定度の違いによる都市における風速変動・暴風リスクの解析2021

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也,Guangdong Duan
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of extreme weather on local-scale hazards under climate change2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Estimating urban surface roughness aerodynamic parameters using random forest2021

    • Author(s)
      Guangdong Duan, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 18th Annual Meeting (AOGS2021) Virtual Conference
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Benefits of high-resolution downscaling experiments for assessing strong wind hazard at local scales in complex terrain2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 18th Annual Meeting (AOGS2021) Virtual Conference
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of extreme weather on local-scale hazards in urban areas and complex terrains for climate change adaptation2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The 5th GADRI Global Summit: Engaging Science with Actions, Panel Discussion Session 3 -Contributions to Climate Change Adaption (Virtual)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Downscaling the impacts of extreme weather at local-scale hazards in cities and in complex topography2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      nternational Workshop on Adaptation Research for Climate Change in Asia (ARCC2021), Online
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of extreme weather on local-scale hazards under climate change2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Meteorology and Climate Science 2021 (ICMCS 2021), the Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka (Online), 10-11 December 2021
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of extreme weather on local-scale hazards in urban districts2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting New Orleans, LA & Online Everywhere
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of typhoons on extreme winds in densely-built urban districts2020

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Guangdong Duan, Kumi Nakamae
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020 (Virtual)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Large-eddy simulations of turbulent flow over urban areas of Osaka, Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Guangdong Duan, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020 (Virtual)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Resolution of CPM and its representation of extreme events2020

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      International Workshop Convection-Permitting Modeling for Climate Research: Current and Future Challenges, 2-4 September 2020 (Virtual)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of extreme weather on local-scale hazards under climate change2020

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Meteorology and Climate Science-2020 (ICMCS 2020), the Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka (Online), 11-12 December 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Building-resolving large-eddy simulations of turbulent flows and gusty winds in densely built urban districts under typhoon conditions2020

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Guangdong Duan
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting Online Everywhere, 1-17 December 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Wind gusts in thermally-stratified urban turbulent boundary-layer flows and the influence of surface roughness2020

    • Author(s)
      Guangdong Duan, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting Online Everywhere, 1-17 December 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2018 年台風21 号通過時に大阪市街地で生じた暴風の定量的解析2019

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也,吉田敏哉,山崎聖太,長谷健太郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analysis of typhoon tracks and associated precipitation amount over western Japan: A case study with Typhoon Nancy and Typhoon Jebi2019

    • Author(s)
      Sridhara Nayak, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] High-resolution modeling of atmospheric dispersion in urban districts and complex topography2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      11th Asian Aerosol Conference (AAC2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Development of the data assimilation method suitable for large-eddy simulation model using the vibration equation2019

    • Author(s)
      Hiromasa Nakayama, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      19th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes (HARMO-19)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of typhoon hazards at local-scales by dynamical downscaling experiments2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Conference on Water Resources and Environmntal Research (ICWRER2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Quantitative estimation of gusty winds in a densely-built, urban district during Typhoon Jebi (2018) by merging mesoscale meteorological and large eddy simulations2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Toshiya Yoshida, Shota Yamasaki, Kentaro Hase
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) The 16th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Importance of terrain representation in simulating a heavy-rain-producing, stationary convective system: A case study2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) The 16th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 市街地における暴風リスクの評価:2018年台風21号を想定した京都市街地での風速変動のLES2019

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也,吉田敏哉
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 東京都心部での暴風リスク評価:2019年台風15号を想定した数値シミュレーション2019

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      河川災害シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of typhoons on local-scale winds in urban districts2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      NCDR-DPRI Joint Workshop
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Quantification of wind fluctuations in a densely-built, urban district during a typhoon landfall by merging mesoscale meteorological and large eddy simulations2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Toshiya Yoshida, Guangdong Duan
    • Organizer
      AGU 2019 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Sensitivity of turbulent flow and dispersion around a 3-D regular building array to urban boundary-layer stability.2019

    • Author(s)
      Guangdong Duan, Tetsuya Takemi, Keith Ngan
    • Organizer
      AGU 2019 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclone hazards at local-scales by dynamical downscalging experiments2019

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The Fifth International Symposium on Flash Floods in Wadi Systems (ISFF2020)
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 建物高さのばらつきを考慮した都市キャノピーによる乱流特性への影響2018

    • Author(s)
      吉田敏哉,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of building-height variability on turbulence generation in the boundary layer over an urban area2018

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Toshiya Yoshida, Mitsuaki Horiguchi
    • Organizer
      23rd Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence/21st Conference on Air-Sea Interaction
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Characteristics of turbulent flux and scale within an urban canopy with building-height variability2018

    • Author(s)
      Toshiya Yoshida, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference on Urban Climate/14th Symposium on the Urban Environment
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Analysis on extreme weather under climate change for impact assessment studies2018

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The 2nd Kyoto University-Universitat Hamburg Symposium 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] LES analysis of the effect of source heights on the longitudinal distribution of plume concentration in the convective boundary layer capped by a temperature inversion2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiromasa Nakayama, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      5th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Models. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 14-16 November 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 平成30年台風21号の気象学的特徴と暴風の実態2018

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本学術会議主催学術フォーラム/第7回防災学術連携シンポジウム「平成30年夏に複合的に連続発生した自然災害と学会調査報告」
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 2019年台風19号による豪雨の発生メカニズムを解明 (京都大学プレスリリース)

    • URL

      http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ja/research/research_results/2019/200221_1.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 2018年の台風21号による大阪市街地での暴風シミュレーションに成功

    • URL

      http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ja/research/research_results/2018/190206_1.html

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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