Future simulation of financial impact of social security and tax
Project/Area Number |
18H04070
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
Section | 一般 |
Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 58:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
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Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
Principal Investigator |
HASHIMOTO HIDEKI 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 教授 (50317682)
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Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
飯塚 敏晃 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (00406810)
松居 宏樹 東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 助教 (70608794)
合田 和生 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (80574699)
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Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
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Budget Amount *help |
¥42,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥32,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,840,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥11,050,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,550,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥11,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,610,000)
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Keywords | 高齢社会 / ミクロシミュレーション / 社会保障 / 疾病推計 / 人口高齢化 / 社会保障負担 / 疾病負担 / 将来推計 / ミクロシミュレータ / 疾病・障害 |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The current research project aimed at developing a microsimulation system to project disease burden and labor supply of old people aged 60 and over in order to estimate the net impact of population ageing onto the nation’s economy. As of 2043, the simulation results indicated that the total cost of formal medical and long-term care service for aged 60 and over will reach 360 billion USD, while the expected total labor-supply will reach about 390 billion USD (the value as of 2016). The results indicated that closing the gender inequality in labor participation, especially women with higher education, will had a larger impact compared to the improvement of population health by health promotion activities.
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Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
ミクロシミュレーションを用いることで、健康状態・機能状態・就労参加など多様な高齢者の像を踏まえた将来インパクトの推計が示された。近未来の高齢社会日本では、高齢者の健康機能状態は保たれており、学歴向上による就労参加・生産性向上が見込まれることから、社会保障費の削減問題に留めず、より人材開発的な観点から政策議論する必要があることが確認された。一方、学歴や性別による健康状態・就労状況の格差が広がる可能性が懸念された。本研究の成果は、ミクロシミュレータを用いて、高齢者の多様性を踏まえた高齢社会研究を切り開くとともに、高齢社会の維持可能性を高める政策議論に対して一石を投じるものとなった。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(10 results)
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[Journal Article] Projecting prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling study,2022
Author(s)
Megumi Kasajima, Karen Eggleston, Shoki Kusaka, Hiroki Matsui, Tomoki Tanaka, Bo-Kyung Son, Katsuya Iijima, Kazuo Goda, Masaru Kitsuregawa, Jay Bhattacharya, Hideki Hashimoto,
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Journal Title
The Lancet Public Health
Volume: 7
Issue: 5
Pages: e458-e468
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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