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太陽爆発現象の防災と減災:地上望遠鏡による爆発予測方法の確立を目指して

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18J23112
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section国内
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionKyoto University
Research Fellow 関 大吉  京都大学, 総合生存学館, 特別研究員(DC1)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-25 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Keywords太陽 / コロナ質量放出 / 太陽フィラメント / 機械学習 / 宇宙天気予測 / 地上望遠鏡 / 宇宙天気 / 人工衛星 / スーパーフレア / フィラメント / SDDI / フレア予測 / フィラメント噴出
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

社会的ニーズの大きい、コロナ質量放出(プラズマ塊の放出現象。社会的影響が大きく、その発生・到来予測が盛んに研究されている)の発生を、機械学習を用いて、非常に精度良く予測できるモデルを構築した。本年度中に、京都大学飛騨天文台SMART/SDDI望遠鏡の観測データを用い、太陽フィラメントの噴出時三次元速度と長さの積が、コロナ質量放出の発生有無に非常に良く関連することを、統計的に明らかにした。またLinear Support Vector Classification という機械学習の手法を用いて、フィラメント噴出から、コロナ質量放出を予測するモデルを構築した。本研究成果は、査読つき国際学術誌Earth, Planets and Space に掲載されたことから、当初の予定通り研究が進展したものと判断した。

また、期待以上の成果として、以下の二点があげられる。
1. 人工衛星データを用いた、太陽フィラメント噴出の予測に関する論文を執筆し、査読つき国際学術誌The Astrophysical Journal に投稿、現在査読中。
2. 太陽フィラメントの生成の様子を観測したデータを解析し、関連する物理量を導出した。現在、査読つき国際学術誌Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society へ投稿準備中である。

Research Progress Status

令和2年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

令和2年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report

Research Products

(27 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (18 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 10 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Cambridge/British Antarctic Survey(英国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Relationship between three-dimensional velocity of filament eruptions and CME association2021

    • Author(s)
      Seki, Daikichi; Otsuji, Kenichi; Ishii, Takako T.; Asai, Ayumi; Ichimoto, Kiyoshi
    • Journal Title

      Earth, Planets and Space

      Volume: 73 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40623-021-01378-4

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] SMART/SDDI Filament Disappearance Catalogue2020

    • Author(s)
      Seki Daikichi、Otsuji Kenichi、Ishii Takako T.、Hirose Kumi、Iju Tomoya、UeNo Satoru、Cabezas Denis、Asai Ayumi、Isobe Hiroaki、Ichimoto Kiyoshi、Shibata Kazunari
    • Journal Title

      Sun and Geosphere

      Volume: 14 Pages: 95-103

    • DOI

      10.31401/sungeo.2019.02.01

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Small-scale motions in the solar filaments as the precursors of the eruptions2019

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D., Otsuji, K., Isobe, H., Ishii, T. T., Ichimoto, K., Shibata, K.
    • Journal Title

      Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 56-56

    • DOI

      10.1093/pasj/psz031

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Space Weather Prediction from the Ground: Case of CHAIN2018

    • Author(s)
      SEKI Daikichi、UeNo Satoru、Isobe Hiroaki、Otsuji Kenichi、Cabezas Denis P.、Ichimoto Kiyoshi、Shibata Kazunari、team and CHAIN
    • Journal Title

      Sun and Geosphere

      Volume: 13 Pages: 157-161

    • DOI

      10.31401/sungeo.2018.02.06

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] フィラメント噴出の三次元速度とコロナ質量 放出との関係について2021

    • Author(s)
      関大吉, 大辻賢一, 石井貴子, 浅井歩, 一本潔
    • Organizer
      日本天文学会2021年春季年会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 建物の高さの代理変数としての夜間光データの提案2021

    • Author(s)
      Kazawa, G., Seki, D., Iwasaki, F., Souknilanh, K., Yamashiki, Y. A.
    • Organizer
      JpGU 2021
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Relationship between three-dimensional velocity of filament eruptions and CME association2021

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D., Otsuji, K., Ishii, T. T., Asai, A., Ichimoto, K.
    • Organizer
      JpGU 2021
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Space Weather Prediction by SMART/SDDI2020

    • Author(s)
      関大吉
    • Organizer
      2020年度太陽研連・太陽スペース研究シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Observation of Filament Eruptions for Nowcasting Geo-effective CMEs2020

    • Author(s)
      *Otsuji, K., Ishii, T. T., Seki, D., Kimura, N., Ichimoto, K.
    • Organizer
      The 4th PSTEP International Symposium (PSTEP-4) and the 2nd ISEE Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Observations with Solar Dynamics Doppler Imager (SDDI) on SMART at Hida Obs., Kyoto-U.2020

    • Author(s)
      *Ishii, T. T., Otsuji, K., Seki, D., Ichimoto, K.
    • Organizer
      The 4th PSTEP International Symposium (PSTEP-4) and the 2nd ISEE Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 飛騨天文台SMART/SDDIを用いた太陽フィラメント噴出の3次元軌跡とCMEとの関連における研究2019

    • Author(s)
      *大辻賢一, 関大吉, Denis P. Cabezas, 木村なみ, 石井貴子, 浅井歩, 一本潔
    • Organizer
      日本天文学会2019年秋季年会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Probability of Satellite Anomalies by a Disastrous Solar Flare2019

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D.,
    • Organizer
      JpGU 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] スーパーフレア時における人工衛星被害推定2019

    • Author(s)
      関大吉, *磯部洋明, 寳馨
    • Organizer
      日本天文学会2019年秋季年会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Fast filament eruption on 2017 April 23 detected by the Solar Dynamics Doppler Imager (SDDI)2019

    • Author(s)
      *Cabezas, D. P., Ichimoto, K., Asai, A., Otsuji, K., Ishii, T. T., UeNo, S., Seki, D., Shibata, K.
    • Organizer
      Hinode-13/IPELS 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Improvement of instruments and capacity-building activities under the CHAIN-project2019

    • Author(s)
      UeNo, S., Shibata, K., Ichimoto, K., Asai, A., Nagata, S., Kimura, G., Nakatani, Y., Otsuji, K., Ishii, T. T., *Seki, D., Cabezas, D. P., Ishitsuka, J. H., Ibrahim, A. A.
    • Organizer
      International Space Weather Initiative Workshop 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Small-scale Motions in Solar Filaments as the Precursors of Eruptions2019

    • Author(s)
      *Seki, D., Otsuji, K., Isobe, H., Ishii, T. T., Ichimoto, K., Shibata, K.
    • Organizer
      International Space Weather Initiative Workshop 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Statistical Analysis on the Satellite Anomalies and its Implication in the case of a Disastrous Solar Flare2019

    • Author(s)
      *Seki, D., Isobe, H., Takara, K.
    • Organizer
      16th European Space Weather Week
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Statistical Analysis on the Satellite Anomalies and its Implication in the case of a Disastrous Solar Flare2019

    • Author(s)
      *Seki, D., Isobe, H., Takara, K.
    • Organizer
      University College London Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction the 9th Annual Conference, 15
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深層学習による画像認識を用いた太陽フレア予報システムの開発2018

    • Author(s)
      Kihara, K., Seki, D., Nemoto, S., Asai, A., Shibata, K.
    • Organizer
      Astronomical Society of Japan 2018 Autumn Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Increasing Small-scale Motions of the Filaments as the Precursors of their Eruptions2018

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D., Otsuji, K., Isobe, H., Ishii, T. T., Ichimoto, K., Shibata, K.
    • Organizer
      JpGU 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深層学習を用いたコロナ質量放出到来時間予測2018

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D., Kihara, K., Asai, A., Shibata, K., Nemoto, S., Isobe, H.
    • Organizer
      Astronomical Society of Japan 2018 Autumn Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Increasing Small-scale Motions of the Filaments as the Precursors of their Eruptions2018

    • Author(s)
      Seki, D., Otsuji, K., Isobe, H., Ishii, T. T., Ichimoto, K., Shibata, K.
    • Organizer
      3rd PSTEP International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 実践する総合生存学2021

    • Author(s)
      池田 裕一、京都大学総合生存学研究会
    • Total Pages
      506
    • Publisher
      京都大学学術出版会
    • ISBN
      9784814002962
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 地球観測衛星データカタログ

    • URL

      http://www.gsais.kyoto-u.ac.jp/st/eo-catalogue/

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 関大吉, Daikichi SEKI

    • URL

      http://www.gsais.kyoto-u.ac.jp/st/dseki/index.html

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] SMART/SDDI Filament Disappearance Catalogue

    • URL

      https://www.kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~seki/sddi-catalogue/

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-05-01   Modified: 2021-12-27  

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