Spatial variability in the death risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Japan

• Project/Area Number: 18K17368
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: MIZUMOTO Kenji 京都大学, 総合生存学館, 特定助教 (90730218)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
• Keywords: 数理モデル / 統計モデル / 感染症流行 / RSV / RSウイルス感染症 / 流行 / 疾病負荷 / 死亡割合 / 感染症理論疫学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to reveal a spatial variability in the death risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Japan. In addition, spatial and temporal variabilities in the reproduction number and the death risk of Ebola virus disease in Democratic Republic of the Congo (2019), modified measles in Japan (2018) and COVID-19 (2020) were also examined during the study period.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

RSウイルス感染症の死亡リスク等についての空間的異質性の存在の他、その他の新興・再興感染症（新型コロナウイルス感染症、エボラ出血熱、麻しん）についても、時空間的異質性にも焦点を当てて、その死亡リスク・感染力等について、本研究を通じて、明らかにしている。これらの指標は、公衆衛生的・医学的介入を実施する際に、適切な介入方法・介入タイミング・期間等を選択する重要な根拠となり、被害規模の減少につながる。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ジョージア州立大学/アリゾナ州立大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] オックスフォード大学(英国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ジョージア州立大学/アリゾナ州立大学(米国)
• [Journal Article] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Zarebski A, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: Euro Surveill Volume: 25 Pages: 2000180-2000180
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Transmission Potential of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: Infect Dis Model Volume: 29 Pages: 264-270
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA: What Might We Expect? (2020)
  • Author(s): Chowell G, Mizumoto K
  • Journal Title: Lancet Volume: 395 Issue: 10230 Pages: 1093-1094
  • DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30743-1
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Changes in Testing Rates Could Mask the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Growth Rate (2020)
  • Author(s): Omori R, Mizumoto K, Chowell G.
  • Journal Title: Int J Infect Dis Volume: 94 Pages: 116-118
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.021
  • NAID: 120006841658
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimating the Risk of COVID-19 Death During the Course of the Outbreak in Korea, February-May 2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Shim E, Mizumoto K, Choi W, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: J Clin Med Volume: 9 Issue: 6 Pages: 1641-1641
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm9061641
  • NAID: 120006951655
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Estimating Risk for Death From Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Chowell G.
  • Journal Title: Emerg Infect Dis Volume: 26 Issue: 6 Pages: 1251-1256
  • DOI: 10.3201/eid2606.200233
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Temporary Fertility Decline After Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Chowell G.
  • Journal Title: Emerg Infect Dis Volume: 26 Issue: 6 Pages: 1122-1129
  • DOI: 10.3201/eid2606.181718
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Effect of the Wet Market on the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Transmission Dynamics in China, 2019-2020 (2020)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Chowell G.
  • Journal Title: Int J Infect Dis Volume: NA Pages: 96-101
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.091
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing the Potential Impact of Vector-Borne Disease Transmission Following Heavy Rainfall Events: A Mathematical Framework (2019)
  • Author(s): Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Banda JM, Poccia S, Perrings C.
  • Journal Title: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Volume: 374 Issue: 1775 Pages: 20180272-20180272
  • DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0272
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The 2018-19 Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018-January 2019 (2018)
  • Author(s): Tariq A, Roosa K, Mizumoto K, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: EPIDEMICS Volume: 26 Pages: 128-133
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.01.003
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States. (2018)
  • Author(s): Dahal S, Mizumoto K, Bolin B, Viboud C, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: Am J Epidemiol Volume: 187 Issue: 12 Pages: 2577-2584
  • DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy146
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March-May, 2018 (2018)
  • Author(s): Mizumoto K, Kobayashi T, Chowell G
  • Journal Title: Eurosurveillance Volume: 23 Issue: 24
  • DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2018.23.24.1800239
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] コロナ肺炎にそれぞれが向き合うために (2020)
  • Author(s): 水本憲治
  • Organizer: 第30回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Invited