An evacuation decision-making model incorporating cognitive dissonance
| Project/Area Number |
18K18563
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 7:Economics, business administration, and related fields
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| Research Institution | Tohoku University |
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Principal Investigator |
Kono Tatsuhito 東北大学, 情報科学研究科, 教授 (00344713)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
マス エリック 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 准教授 (30648374)
山浦 一保 立命館大学, スポーツ健康科学部, 教授 (80405141)
安田 誠宏 関西大学, 環境都市工学部, 准教授 (60378916)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-06-29 – 2021-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | 津波避難 / 高潮避難 / 認知的不協和 / 正常性バイアス / Akerlof Dickensの経済心理学モデル / 地域防災計画・政策 / 避難行動分析 / 避難行動 / 防災 / 防災心理 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We built the refuge decision making model in consideration of personal rationality and cognitive dissonance. We performed the derivation of the jitters of the inhabitants every area and the quantitative analysis of the refuge rate using the model and refuge action data at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake. As a result, we show that the jitters of the local inhabitants who experienced tsunami inundation damage are large. In addition, an elderly person had larger jitters than the youngers, and the giving and receiving of the tsunami warning affected the jitters.
About the high tide refuge, we carried out the questionary survey about the refuge action at the time of the typhoon No.21 in 2018. We can show that the estimated death-probability is lower due to the influence of cognitive dissonance.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
災害時の避難行動について，これまで認知的不協和が介在していると指摘があるものの，数理モデル化されておらず定量分析も行われていなかった． 本研究は， Akerlof・Dickens (1982)の経済心理学モデルをベースに避難行動をモデル化して，その定量分析を，実際の避難データを用いてパラメータ推定した研究である．避難行動のメカニズムが数理的に把握できると，災害政策の評価をそのメカニズムとともに示せる．
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(62 results)
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[Journal Article] Development of calibrated tsunami evacuation models through real-world collected data: The case study of Coquimbo-La Serena, Chile.2021
Author(s)
Leon, J., Mas, E., Catalan, P. A., Moya, L., Gubler, A., Koshimura, S. & Cienfuegos, R.
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Journal Title
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
Volume: -
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[Journal Article] Detecting urban changes using phase correlation and l1-based sparse model for early disaster response: A case study of the 2018 Sulawesi Indonesia earthquake-tsunami2019
Author(s)
Moya, L., Muhari, A., Adriano, B., Koshimura, S., Mas, E., Marval-Perez, L. R., & Yokoya, N.
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Journal Title
Remote Sensing of Environment
Volume: 242
Pages: 111743-111743
DOI
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Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Tsunami analytical fragility curves for the Colombian Pacific coast: A reinforced concrete building example. Engineering Structures2019
Author(s)
Medina, S., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Estrada, M., Koshimura, S., Mas, E., & Adriano, B.
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Journal Title
Engineering Structures
Volume: 196
Pages: 109309-109309
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] A comparative study of empirical and analytical fragility functions for the assessment of tsunami building damage in Tumaco, Colombia.2019
Author(s)
Paez-Ramirez, J., Lizarazo-Marriaga, J., Medina, S., Estrada, M., Mas, E., & Koshimura, S.
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Journal Title
Coastal Engineering Journal
Volume: -
Issue: 3
Pages: 362-372
DOI
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Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Dynamic Integrated Model for Disaster Management and Socioeconomic Analysis (DIM2SEA)2018
Author(s)
Mas, E., Felsenstein, D., Moya, L., Grinberger, A., Das, R., and Koshimura, S.
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Journal Title
Journal of Disaster Research
Volume: 13
Issue: 7
Pages: 1257-1271
DOI
NAID
ISSN
1881-2473, 1883-8030
Year and Date
2018-12-01
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] Evacuation drills under different scenarios based on tsunami inundation simulation-Practices of primary school in Zihuatanejo, Mexico2020
Author(s)
Nakano, G., Yamori, K., Miyashita, T., Urra, L., Mas, E., Koshimura, S
Organizer
DPRI Annual Meeting 2020
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] Fusion of evacuation drill with tsunami inundation simulation-Development and effect of the tsunami educational material2019
Author(s)
Nakano, G., Yamori, K., Miyashita, T., Urra, L., Mas, E., Koshimura, S
Organizer
2019 Annual Meeting of the Union Geofisica Mexicana
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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