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A study on improvement of the Arctic atmospheric prediction

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K23454
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0204:Astronomy, earth and planetary science, and related fields
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

Akio Yamakami  筑波大学, 計算科学研究センター, 研究員 (30850135)

Project Period (FY) 2019-08-30 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords北極大気 / 気象予測 / アンサンブル予報 / 中期予報 / 延長予報 / 予測可能性
Outline of Research at the Start

近年の海氷減少に伴う、北極海航路や北極資源の利用などによって、北極域における正確な気象予測の社会的要請が高まっている。本研究では、世界各国の現業気象機関が日々行っているアンサンブル予報データ(TIGGE、S2Sデータ)を用いて、北極大気の予測可能性に影響をもたらす要因の解析を行い、北極大気の予測精度を向上させるために必要なプロセスについての手がかりを得ることを目的とする。その結果、北極域での大気-海洋-海氷相互作用についての理解を進めるとともに、北極域での人間活動をより安全に行えるようにすることを目指す。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Arctic forecast busts are investigated using operational forecasts. The occurrence frequency of forecast busts decreased from 2008 to 2012, and was between 2% and 6% for the period 2012-2019. Arctic forecast busts were most frequent in the May and July-September periods, but less frequent between December and March. The summertime forecast bust occurred more frequently when the initial pattern was the Greenland Blocking or Arctic Cyclone pattern rather than one of the other patterns.
Also, the sub-seasonal predictability of the weekly mean geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa were assessed. The skill over the North Pacific, Canada, and Greenland is higher than over other areas for week-3 and -4 forecasts. These peaks correspond to the centers of action for the teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Results suggest that the improvement in the mid-latitude upper-level jet rather than in the response to ENSO forcing in the tropics could lead to better S2S predictions.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

北極海氷減少に伴う北極域の環境の変化は科学的に注目されている。また、北極海航路の活用などの観点から社会的にも注目されており、北極域における正確な気象予測の重要性が増している。
予測精度急低下の研究結果は、人間活動が活発となる夏季に急低下が起こりやすいことを示すと同時に、日々の天気予報の予測の精度が下がりやすいパターンを示した。これは予報利用者にパターンによる予測の信頼度の違いについて注意喚起を行う有益な情報となり得る。
また、延長予報は意思決定に利用されると考えられる。本研究の結果は、延長予報を有効に利用するためにはさらに精度を向上させる必要があり、それには偏西風の改善が必要であることを示唆した。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2020 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2021 2020 2019

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Statistical characteristics of Arctic forecast busts and their relationship to Arctic weather patterns in summer2021

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami Akio、Matsueda Mio
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections2020

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami Akio、Matsueda Mio
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 47 Issue: 17

    • DOI

      10.1029/2020gl088508

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Forecast skill for wintertime atmospheric variability over the Northern Hemisphere and its relationship to mid-latitude teleconnections2020

    • Author(s)
      Akio Yamagami, Mio Matsueda
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] S2S時間スケールにおける北半球冬季の週平均場の予測可能性とテレコネクションとの関係2020

    • Author(s)
      山上晃央, 松枝未遠
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Predictability of weekly mean atmospheric variability over the Northern Hemisphere on S2S timescales2020

    • Author(s)
      Akio Yamagami, Mio Matsueda
    • Organizer
      The 35th International Symposium on the Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assessment of sub-seasonal forecast skill over the Northern Hemisphere in operational ensemble forecasts2019

    • Author(s)
      Akio Yamagami, Mio Matsueda
    • Organizer
      The Tenth Symposium on Polar Science
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2019-09-03   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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